Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 13462. (Read 26719972 times)

I don't think there are too many people up to celebrate with you right now but I will. Cheers.

Fair enough, and really in sum it sounds as if you have quite a bit stronger view about the probability of down than I do, but in the end, on a personal preparation level (financially and psychologically) I don't really care that much about whether we have additional down.  Sure, I profit more with UPwards price movements, but like we discussed several times, we have to attempt to figure out ways to set our orders in such a way that we can get some advantage(s) from any price movement that happens.



I agree that it is a good thing for you, and it is a good thing that you found a plan that you were able to tailor to your own comfort level....  For myself, I have some curiousity about how shorting plays out for others, but I have no compelling reason to change my own practice because what I do feels really good for me.  I did go out and buy a couple of nice things in the past few weeks, so my bitcoin strategy is not taking away from my treating of myself.  By the way, I recall that you took a sufficiently modest short that was an attempt to prepare for price movements in either direction, which is a good thing to do.   Perhaps on reflection you want to tell yourself to play bigger on the next short that you take in similar circumstances (and that could end up playing out in a different way... A lot of shorters do get reckt, so hopefully there are ways to act in moderation in order to not wipe out your profits with any future shorts that you might take - and more likely to be true if you continue to play them in moderation rather than getting greedy.


I do not engage in these kinds of discussions in order to find out how people feel, but instead to brainstorm differing perspectives.  Yes, largely I have developed plans for myself that play out no matter the price direction and no matter what other people think or feel, but in the end on the margins, we can still learn by sharing ideas with other peeps... and some other peeps are going to profit from our sharing of knowledge (and experiences) too.  Don't get me wrong, I am largely in agreement with you... which is that I doubt that my input or the input of others in this thread causes BTC price action(s), but we still have the ability to profit from participating in such thread discussions, even if seemingly repetitive.

6800

O.k.  Let's attempt to isolate reasons and to play a hypothetical. 

Let's hypothetically say that the ETF is having some kind of effect on the BTC price currently, if so, we could still have a buy on the rumor and sell on the news situation.  Sometimes just the idea of something bullish happening could cause a pump  in a time period that is quite a bit before the official announcement, and then when the thing actually hits, whether yes or no, then the opposite effect could happen (a dump, even with positive news, although positive news would likely cause a longer term financialization and therefore pump upon the BTC price).

On the other hand, the hypothetical is all wrong - because a large amount of the time, there are several factors that affect the price, including supply and demand issues across 100s of liquidation mechanisms, including dynamics with alts.  We also have momentum and manipulation, too.... So, sure we can play with hypotheticals that attempt to narrow down the reasons for a pump or a dump and maybe even we can list out five things that are going on that have an effect on the price in one direction or another, yet I still maintain my position that we do not necessarily benefit from putting too much effort on attempting be conclusive about the direction one way or another, because as soon as we do, then we are likely to get surprised in the other direction.   

Take margin positions for example, and I have seen a post from today saying that everything is lining up for long, including long positions, but as soon as a bunch of longs line up with margin, there will be some whale(s) who believe its to their advantage to force them to close (by pushing the price down)



I do agree with you that if you can pinpoint the reason(s), then you can figure out a little bit what you are going to do, and what kind of tentative timeline to give your plan.   On the other hand, you can still make a plan for what the price actually does rather than needing some kind of reason(s) for it.  So in that regard, if the price goes up, then you make play x, and if prices go down you make plan y.. also you could have a plan to cash out.. certain percentage(s) of your stash for every certain amount of time period (that is also not dependent upon reasons).  So if your overall plan was to cash out 3% per year, then instead you might choose to cash out .25% per month (which is 1/12) of 3%.. or some variation that does not depend on any explanation for why BTC prices are doing A, B or C.

  I think we ate at the same restaurant today!

Yes. Do you understand the term? In this case, meaning scaling in a manner unrelated to the max block size.


Sidechainy things are within the universe of things being discussed, though certainly not exclusively, nor even leadingly.


Point?


In a manner of speaking, yes. Time tested engineering principles focus on the bang-for-the-buck solutions. Always.

However, it is not 'might come'. We know of several scaling solutions orthogonal to increasing the max block size. The discussions underway are focused upon cost/benefit analysis. Or alternately risk/benefit analysis. You know - the essence of engineering.

As times change, your methods may need to change, too.

Top problem at the moment?  Or the top 10 list?

Jesus man. What is wrong with you?

Oh lord.  You are gonna have Bob dressed up as a wizard with a dungeons and dragons campaign going with that kind of post...

Not a bad bet I think. But that counterparty risk . Trusting someone to actually pay out 1.2 billion, that's more trust than I have in anyone.

Hold on! bear months is more exciting

This guy must be 100% sure that BTC will surpass $280K in 2023 to bet $6.3 mil. 
https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-trader-big-on-bitcoin-exceeds-warren-buffett-berkshire-price

I am quite sure this is the signal we have been waiting for...

BTC To the moon!

Thanks Guys, I think this is it.


https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14011669

The next bull cycle is coming?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.14644650

Orthogonal? You mean like side chains! WTF that wasn't in Satoshi's white paper!!!
Wait so you're saying that different solutions might come in the future so time and resources are better spent on near term issues rather than arbitrary usages cases for the whole population! You're so cute with your flawed logic, i bet your tears will taste sweet

Here's a good repost re CoinJoin
http://diyhpl.us/wiki/transcripts/building-on-bitcoin/2018/coinjoinxt/


Nothing on Schnorr tho

Linky?