Very hard to see Bitcoin price surpass $45k since last year and is still having same effect this year, $44k now and I'm expecting it to go back to $43-42k any time soon...
Yeah but it does not matter, if BTC prices might be stuck between $45k and $40k or maybe a broader range of $35k to $55k.. we are moving around within a zone.. and yeah, there is a certain amount of ongoing UPpity BTC price pressures, but still I doubt that we are even outside of the don't wake me up zone, even if we get back above $46k and even if we make it as high as $55k.
Surely some folks are going to get excited in the supra $50k prices and up to $55k, but personally, I am still considering those as kind of given prices and part of our current range.. so yeah, you are even more of a party poop, perhaps bear wannabe, that you are considering supra $45k to potentially be difficult to achieve or even to suggest that anything between $40k and $46k would be anything except nearly pure noise.
Thought I better come clean regarding my fiat addiction. Seems most Americans are doing much better than I do.
I personally believe that you should be measuring yourself in comparison to your own situation rather than comparing yourself to some people who may well be in a different country and who would presumptively have different circumstances from you. Sure there might be some folks in similar circumstances, but as Biodom also mentioned, there are a lot of Americans who do not have very much savings and/or investment, so each of us should be grateful if we have systems in place in which we are able to save/invest.
By the way, if you are describing your total disposable cash situation, then I would expect that you have at least $90k in bitcoin (and that is 10% cash which surely is generous, and maybe overly generous to have that much cash) .. and no I don't want to break your opsec...
yet, one of the things that I frequently consider is a kind of float that involves how much cash that I have that is extra beyond the servicing of monthly expenses.. so if I were to say that I have $10k in the bank, that would be whatever places that I have cash that is not already allocated towards the servicing of various monthly expenses... and then within that available cash (maybe also called discretionary or disposable income), there could be some of it that is just flexibly there and can be used for consumption purposes, but there are other parts that I might specifically allocate towards bitcoin..
and yeah, maybe sometimes I add to or subtract from the bitcoin allocation based on some personal expenses or maybe based on my feelings about the BTC price..so for example, in mid 2022 and maybe even until various parts of early 2023, I ended up having to allocate more of that extra money towards bitcoin (even though the amount in that category was also shrinking due to the BTC price being low, so allocation to the category increased, but also spending on bitcoin increased.. and there were even periods of discomfort based on how low it was getting, but also a kind of feeling that more should be spent on bitcoin because the BTC prices were then relatively low).
I am going to say that my current cash is less than 2% of my BTC stash... and I tend to try to keep my cash float low, and I think that the top of the 2017 market was the last time that I was close to 10% in cash. Just ballparking the idea, I think the two tops of the 2021 BTC prices, I did not get to be more than 5% or maybe 6% at most that was in cash as compared with BTC. For sure, people have their differing balancing comfort levels, in terms of the raw cash numbers and/or what they consider "acceptable" percentages.
We will never be poor again no matter how brutal the dump would be.
There does seem to be a cushion forming, but I hate to box myself into absolutes.
I must say, price holds nicely. 10k candle soon?
I am assuming that you are thinking about the daily candle, and "we" have been waiting for something like this kind of a greenie for a long time.. probably since early 2021.. but still haven't quite gotten quite to that point..
whether it is strictly within a daily candle or within something like a 24-hour period, even though I think that several times we have had green 3-day candles that quite exceed $10k..
.. so maybe I am not sure which one you would like to see.. .. and maybe there is a bit more of an anticipation of the possibility of a $10k green candle now, and I am not sure, because usually if there is something like a $10k candle, there would likely be some building up to it, and yeah, maybe we have had enough building up of it from mid-October until now.. so I am not going to negate the $10k green candle compatibility of our current conditions. (that is GCC-CC.. hahahaha).
I'm totally fine with 24h. It's arbitrary where the beginning of a day is set, as it changes depending on timezone anyways.
I think I remember that some time (years) ago you wrote about that arbitrariness in a post yourself.
Yeah, we do have to be careful about some of the arbitrary lines that sometimes are drawn (or in place due to custom), while at the same time attempting to balance our reference points so that we are communicating clearly about what it is that we mean.. which might even relate to a bit of arbitrariness that we are still using Bitstamp as our reference, but is there a better reference so that we are on the same page when we are talking about BTC price moves?
It is becoming pretty standard and common place for BTC chart candles to be started and stopped on UTC midnight, so I don't have any BIG problem with that so that we know what we are talking about, absent some other kinds of more specific descriptions of the reference points.