Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1452. (Read 26732366 times)
December 30, 2023, 09:01:17 PM
December 30, 2023, 08:56:08 PM
It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail
Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.
I don't have any qualms with these procedures, but the main question is: what is this "raking" in $$ for?
Possibilities:
1. Maintaining the life style
2. Maintaining the life style while retiring (more raking is needed here).
3. Enhancing $$ spent 2X, 5X, etc
4. Selling a large chunk to invest in funding charities, properties, ventures, forming new enterprises, etc.
#1 personally, I don't need to sell anything for #1.
#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.
#3 2x in $$ would be nice (don't care about 5X), so I don't dismiss it and will look at it more.
#4 is quite interesting, but I envision that btc has to be in at least 500K-1mil range to me to attempt a significant move.
So, I am in some kind of "quiet" zone right now. No need to make any moves, it seems.
Maybe, I simply lack imagination.
December 30, 2023, 08:01:17 PM
December 30, 2023, 07:03:28 PM
December 30, 2023, 07:01:08 PM
hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.
It would not be first New Year's this happens.All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..
But define prepared… is just the knowledge to know hodling is the only thing needs to been done classifies as “being prepared” ?
If you are me and have some coins and some cash you may have a purchase or series of purchases set up at :
39k
36k
33k
I cannot help but to attempt to bust your balls in this regard... and you probably know where I am going in terms of there are some aspects in which you Philip are not a typical kind of OG, because you surely should be in a kind of maintenance stage rather than an accumulation stage, yet at the same time, the kinds of behaviors of selling on the way up and buying on the way down is a maintenance stage kind of activity, which surely any of us could attempt to bias the level to which we might sell on the way up and buy on the way down so that we might be net accumulating or net liquidating... so I suppose levels of aggressiveness or conservative, and so if 90% of our stash is sitting on the sidelines, then that still might be considered maintenance, even if we might consider ourselves as bias in one direction or another and maybe we blow with the wind in regards to where our bias is depending, partly on BTC price momentum.. and in this regard, I may well be defending you, even though that was not my original intent.. .. oh well it is Christmas and almost new years, so why go into some of that.
Spend and replace...or just spend/rake (as per various raking schemes).
The one's @JJG and @phillippone had posted.. all is pretty much clear, albeit i have just one question regarding the methodology.
Say, starting with 10btc, raking 2btc, but the next cycle starts with not 8btc, but 8+a fraction.
I am not sure that it explains where that fraction came from OR maybe I did not look at it in sufficient detail
The one's @JJG and @phillippone had posted.. all is pretty much clear, albeit i have just one question regarding the methodology.
Say, starting with 10btc, raking 2btc, but the next cycle starts with not 8btc, but 8+a fraction.
I am not sure that it explains where that fraction came from OR maybe I did not look at it in sufficient detail
Actually, you are correct Biodom that there seems to be some kind of glitch in the Matrix in terms of part of the Google spreadsheet that fillippone had posted. Just for clarification, if you go to the spreadsheet by clicking on the image in the above linked post, then you can copy the spreadsheet into a new document in order to put your data into it. The top portion of the spreadsheet does not have the formulas in there (so those numbers were based on a different input from some earlier formulas). However, if you go to the lower table in that same spreadsheet, and you can see that the lower table has all of the same information as the upper table (besides the three reinvestment sections), but it also has the proper formulas, so if you change the reinvestment percentage (cell I48) from 80% to 0% then that would cause the table to have an assumption that you are not trying to reinvest any of the BTC that you withdrew, and then you will get the proper results in column A (cell A59) which would end up being 8 BTC (as you mentioned should have had been the results if the formulas had been in the upper table), and so then the subsequent cells of each of the rows of column A have the BTC balance at each of the stages after the 20% withdrawals at each of stages in which BTC prices go up 50% the amount of the withdrawal is fairly aggressive to be 20% each time, starting at $130k.
**Note that once you copy the spreadsheet, you can change any of the portions that have the green florescent cells in order to see the results for your own personal input, and the bottom table seems to have all of the correct formulas but the top table does not have the formulas correctly, including at least column A.
What I am getting at....right now, if you have a partner with whom you file a joined return, you can cash out 89K/year in cap gains and pay ZERO long term taxes (if you bought said btc more than 1 year ago). $89K by itself is more than the average US household income for the year....not bad.
It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail
Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.
Edited to clarify some of my description of the error in the spreadsheet that Biodom had identified
December 30, 2023, 06:01:18 PM
December 30, 2023, 05:33:49 PM
I've seen enough. The market obviously wants to end the year at $42069 and at this point I don't even think people should fight it. Just let it happen. Maybe Elon is having some fun or the overall market is just a bunch of wise guys. Pretty crazy that it could be manipulated seemingly so easily to hit a price target for a joke, but here we are. Makes you wonder what will happen when those big money folks want to manipulate the price to the moon... It will be hang on tight time for sure.
December 30, 2023, 05:01:16 PM
December 30, 2023, 04:03:26 PM
December 30, 2023, 03:21:25 PM
Well... it's only 100k 
It is kind of funny how guys can have such low aspirations. .it almost reminds me of all the things that were being promised in 2014, 2015 and 2016 about reaching $1k...
yeah, of course, there is a little bit of a difference because we have not yet reached $100k, even though by the time 2014, 2015 and 2016 came we had already reached $1k in 2013... so anyhow, $100k is starting to seems like one of those price points in which we may well end up going zooming right past it, even if we might have some ups and downs around that point.. .. and. I am not going to proclaim what to do or how to handle the matter - beyond my own pretty much sticking with my own system, which means I am likely not going to be doing anything great around $100k.. even though I might have some higher price points that I am might consider the possibility of sharing higher than my "regular amounts".. can you imagine of any of us who have less than $1k cost per BC, if the BTC price might have some days in which it goes up 30x the amount that we have invested.. just in a day... it seems possible, and those kinds of price explosions can happen in either direction, so maybe shaving off a wee bit would not hurt.. and don't get me wrong, I understand that there are other active members in this thread who have average costs per BTC in the low 3 digits or maybe even in the 2 digits. so shaving off a few sats or even a few BTC might not even make any kind of a large dent in the stash size (or the relative value of the stash).
the weekly looks like a bull flag forming into the ETF date.
but maybe ... just maybe....
but maybe ... just maybe....
It does kind of seem too good to be true.
I am not counting my chickens yet.. but I do have incubators prepared, just in case.
Thoughts about ETF effect on btc price in initial period:
On one hand, ETF sponsors would like to generate momentum, but, on the other hand, they would "like" institutions to be able to come not on a spike, thefore, my read is that after approval we will observe either a flat city or a smallish down (less than 5-10%) during the first few months, maybe to April, maybe to May. Later April sounds logical, as it is when the halving occurs. After that (this period could extend to summer, maybe): a very steady high powered bull run with no more than 10-15% local corrections...maybe for 12-18mo or maybe even multiple years.
I guess, everyone just counts on approval, but sometimes I think that PTB can still throw something nasty into the mix, but hopefully, they wouldn't and no black swans either: late 2019 to early 2020 was an especially nasty one. One day, btc was smartly running up in Jan -Feb 2020, then, suddenly, everything went "kabluey" due to covid panic.
On one hand, ETF sponsors would like to generate momentum, but, on the other hand, they would "like" institutions to be able to come not on a spike, thefore, my read is that after approval we will observe either a flat city or a smallish down (less than 5-10%) during the first few months, maybe to April, maybe to May. Later April sounds logical, as it is when the halving occurs. After that (this period could extend to summer, maybe): a very steady high powered bull run with no more than 10-15% local corrections...maybe for 12-18mo or maybe even multiple years.
I guess, everyone just counts on approval, but sometimes I think that PTB can still throw something nasty into the mix, but hopefully, they wouldn't and no black swans either: late 2019 to early 2020 was an especially nasty one. One day, btc was smartly running up in Jan -Feb 2020, then, suddenly, everything went "kabluey" due to covid panic.
Personally, I sense that: You are giving the powers that be a lot of power.. and I am not even saying that you are going to be wrong.. but I hate to grant them that much benefit of the doubt in regards to their abilities to control and/or manipulate (or even to get the directional results that they want, once they play their dumbass black swan or whatever it might be.. do you remember that various bank explosions earlier in the year, and BTC prices went up and not down.. I think that they would have preferred bitcoin to correct during that period, rather than having the Streisand effect), and even once things happen, there will be plenty of the powers that be who will likely be claiming that they caused it (or directed it).. or blah blah blah.. baloney..
[edited out]
it always impresses me how quickly the sentiment changes from bullishness to doom and vise versa... even in the WO(edit: referring to how easy it is for the TPTB to introduce a sentiment)
But fuck sentiment. It does not always work to be fucking around with sentiment, even if they are able to affect it.
You think king daddy gives very many fucks about sentiment?
#asking for a friend, since that came out a bit hostile.
[edited out]
Following the phrase "buy with the rumour and sell the news" we can also expect a little pump after the ETF aproval and a big dump for a few months when some big players rebuy and some other buys a offert price and then we can expect a big bull run, in the mid of 2024 with also the halving happening.For me the market has already discounted the ETF thing.
That is dumb. That is to say that if you were to be asserting the efficient-market hypothesis as if it were to apply to a variety of things including: 1) halvening is priced in, 2) hashpower leads BTC price, and/or 3) ETF is priced in (your actual assertion).. .
should I roll my eyes or laugh my ass off?
if I look at my December 2021 prediction, I can attempt to use those numbers and timeline as a kind of guidance for what I had then considered to be possible at that point in that cycle, even though we are currently in a different part of our current cycle.. including our momentum is in a different kind of a place.. so $1 million by 2024.. gosh? maybe I would put it at 1%-ish. or maybe less than 2%. but I am not going to put that kind of number within a year at zero..
I actually looked at that Dec 2021 link and among other things it says: "13-17.5K-overly bearish-about 2% odds"Yet, it happened in 2022 despite the long odds.
The upside post was made in December 2021 and the downside post was made on May 19. 2022. .and I was kind of regretting that May 2016 post within days after posting it.. but anyhow, my regret does not mean shit because the mere fact that lower odd type events end up happening, and even maybe happening within a few weeks of the post, does not mean that the odds assignment was flawed at the time it was made.
Remember I was trying to bet you in regards to some of the upside scenarios, but you would not bet on the odds that you gave to it, even though I likely would be willing to bet on the odds that I give, even if I end up being wrong.. .. and yeah of course, it becomes easier to bet if someone has seemingly extreme views.
I am not claiming to be any kind of nostradamus, but I will likely continue to revise my odds charts from time to time. I felt that it was kind of innovative for me to attempt to describe the whole spectrum so that the numbers add up to 100% and then also to have some separate aspects that attempt to put timelines for the periods that I was placing the odds, and frequently, i was striving to get some members, or maybe any member to describe some competing odd assignments.. especially if he might be willing to do it in a kind of detailed way like me which might be following my framework or some kind of a similar framework. Did not get too many folks to really engage on that level, and sure it is easy to be all Monday morning quarter-backing it.
We could do it again at some time.. but of course we have to go with current conditions, and surely sometimes we are in a better place than others to assign both up and down, and even now, we might be in a decently good position to describe 2024 or even various random places between here and 2024
...or even including 2025, since that would be part of the regular cycle, even though I have already heard you, Biodom, expecting that this cycle is going to peak in the first half of 2025.. which also could be a bettable proposition depending on how you might feel about it.. I did not see you stating it in absolute terms, so I did not really get too worked up about it, so far.
I am just saying that predictions are a hard business, even when measured in probabilities.
Well you better be willing to stand behind it when you start to make absolute proclamations, because the fact that you would not previously stand behind your earlier absolute proclamations is because you did not really believe what you were saying.
I think that it should be easier to stand behind probabilistic predictions as compared to absolutes.. but sure it depends on the absolute and if anyone is wanting to take the other side of the bet.. because if you assert absolutes that are totally reasonable, then it is less likely that anyone is going to challenge your assertion.
We all want btc to be at $1 mil and above and it SHOULD be, but nobody really knows when it would get there in "our" version of the multiverse.
Well, next year seems to be a bit much, but for the cycle, it does not seem as far out there, and if we are going to add another cycle, we might well be getting into much higher odds, even in the 30% and maybe even 40% territory if we take it out to the end of 2029.. I am not sure if I would be willing to go as high as 40%.. but 30% seems like something that might be currently within the 2029 kind of a timeline. .that would be 1.5 cycles.. to the extent that cycles continue to matter.
From a tactical perspective, 20X spike in 2017 happened when almost nobody (except Tim Draper, haha) predicted it.
I can only wish that US would stop "fighting" it and instead, allow it to fully flourish unencumbered and this remains my wish.
I can only wish that US would stop "fighting" it and instead, allow it to fully flourish unencumbered and this remains my wish.
I wonder how much the US fighting it matters very much. Yeah, sure it seems like it does matter, but how you going to stop them from fighting it? We just have difficulties knowing how the fight progresses and the extent to which damage is contained.. but we are in a kind of war zone, even if it might not completely feel like that, and the war zone has existed since you and I have been in bitcoin, but it has been taken to different places, different levels and coming to consciousness of different people in terms of what kinds of arms they want to try to use to battle against it.
December 30, 2023, 03:05:30 PM
Spend and replace...or just spend/rake (as per various raking schemes).
The one's @JJG and @phillippone had posted.. all is pretty much clear, albeit i have just one question regarding the methodology.
Say, starting with 10btc, raking 2btc, but the next cycle starts with not 8btc, but 8+a fraction.
I am not sure that it explains where that fraction came from OR maybe I did not look at it in sufficient detail
What I am getting at....right now, if you have a partner with whom you file a joined return, you can cash out 89K/year in cap gains and pay ZERO long term taxes (if you bought said btc more than 1 year ago). $89K by itself is more than the average US household income for the year....not bad.
The one's @JJG and @phillippone had posted.. all is pretty much clear, albeit i have just one question regarding the methodology.
Say, starting with 10btc, raking 2btc, but the next cycle starts with not 8btc, but 8+a fraction.
I am not sure that it explains where that fraction came from OR maybe I did not look at it in sufficient detail
What I am getting at....right now, if you have a partner with whom you file a joined return, you can cash out 89K/year in cap gains and pay ZERO long term taxes (if you bought said btc more than 1 year ago). $89K by itself is more than the average US household income for the year....not bad.
December 30, 2023, 03:03:25 PM
December 30, 2023, 02:29:04 PM
hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.
It would not be first New Year's this happens.All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..
But define prepared… is just the knowledge to know hodling is the only thing needs to been done classifies as “being prepared” ?
Buying too... or spend and replace.
Sometimes there could be some cases in which 6-7 years could be enough to be prepared.. looking at your mid-2017 forum registration date (el dude), yet it seems that I meet so many forum members who have not really been able to prepare in that amount of time, including that maybe they spent some time in shitcoins or trading bitcoin, so they may well did not end up stacking very many sats, whether that would have been in pre-$3k 2017 or even during the 2018, 2019 and 2020 lows that we might say that we spent a decently large amount of time between $6k and $10k.. and yeah some periods of even greater bargains down to the lower $3k, but those were not very common times to be able to get coins below $4,500, even in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
In traditional investment circles, it can take 30-40 years or even longer to get to entry-level fuck you status, and surely a lot of folks do not even get there because their value is sucked up into the depreciating currencies, so whatever they invest into does not end up going up enough in order to both make up for the debasement of the currency, but also to make up for the fact that they might not have been investing / saving as much as they should have been. So even investing 10% per year takes 10 years to get to 1 year of salary invested, and sure, if anyone is able to do 30%, then the time line to invest one year's salary is less than 3 years... but many folks are not able to be that 30%-ish level of aggressiveness in their savings/investments.
Anyhow? what's my point?
I think that I would not consider it to be unusual for guys still to need a couple of cycles to really have enough BTC, and so there are likely enough guys who are in the one to two cycles arena who are still buying BTC, even if that might still be bringing up their average cost per BTC.
One of the ways around the need to continue to stack would be for guys who were able to lump sum in, and I would not assume that to have had been the case for someone unless he might have mentioned something like that, or maybe implied it by some of his behaviors in which he might have been stocking / stacking more BIGGEDly than a typical newbie... which surely is not that unusual because we do have people at various points of their life coming to BTC, and in these future times, many of them might be coming through ETFs, so surely it could take a while for many of them to recognize/appreciate some of the value and powers of holding your own BTC.. .. not that the holder of BTC always recognizes that value either, if he might be holding a lot on exchanges or even some guys might sell some of their BTC so that they can get BTC price exposure through their "tax privileged funds" namely buying into the spot BTFs which could take a while to figure out as being an inferior product (as compared to actually holding a decent amount of actual BTC).
hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.
It would not be first New Year's this happens.All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..
But define prepared… is just the knowledge to know hodling is the only thing needs to been done classifies as “being prepared” ?
Kind of feeling more and more like an attack - especially how long it is being sustained.. and especially on poor people and people who might be new and skiddish about transacting directly on bitcoin... but yeah, hard to point to the exact evidence of such suspected attack .. beyond a kind of feeling.. .
which doesn't hurt as much the holders with a lot of coins or even rich people who may well buy their BTC in higher quantities and be more than willing to pay the transaction fees to move around their coins.
December 30, 2023, 02:03:25 PM
December 30, 2023, 01:38:35 PM
Spot Bitcoin ETF Applicants Flood SEC With Filing Updates Before Deadline
Major asset managers, including blackrock, Vaneck, Valkyrie, Bitwise, Invesco/Galaxy, Fidelity, Wisdomtree, and Ark Investments and 21shares in a joint filing, submitted their updated documents to the securities regulator on Friday afternoon.
>>> https://twitter.com/BTCTN/status/1741150194521997800?t=ApP6mJch2INUl3oDwXHmTA&s=19
By the way 😉
Happy new year in advance Wall Observer🥱
Major asset managers, including blackrock, Vaneck, Valkyrie, Bitwise, Invesco/Galaxy, Fidelity, Wisdomtree, and Ark Investments and 21shares in a joint filing, submitted their updated documents to the securities regulator on Friday afternoon.
>>> https://twitter.com/BTCTN/status/1741150194521997800?t=ApP6mJch2INUl3oDwXHmTA&s=19
By the way 😉
Happy new year in advance Wall Observer🥱
December 30, 2023, 01:37:01 PM
hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.
It would not be first New Year's this happens.
All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..
I guess the OG’s are prepared…
But define prepared… is just the knowledge to know hodling is the only thing needs to been done classifies as “being prepared” ?
No if you are you and have lots of coins you many not want more.
If you are me and have some coins and some cash you may have a purchase or series of purchases set up at :
39k
36k
33k
December 30, 2023, 01:28:34 PM
if I look at my December 2021 prediction, I can attempt to use those numbers and timeline as a kind of guidance for what I had then considered to be possible at that point in that cycle, even though we are currently in a different part of our current cycle.. including our momentum is in a different kind of a place.. so $1 million by 2024.. gosh? maybe I would put it at 1%-ish. or maybe less than 2%. but I am not going to put that kind of number within a year at zero..
I actually looked at that Dec 2021 link and among other things it says: "13-17.5K-overly bearish-about 2% odds"
Yet, it happened in 2022 despite the long odds.
I am just saying that predictions are a hard business, even when measured in probabilities.
We all want btc to be at $1 mil and above and it SHOULD be, but nobody really knows when it would get there in "our" version of the multiverse.
From a tactical perspective, 20X spike in 2017 happened when almost nobody (except Tim Draper, haha) predicted it.
I can only wish that US would stop "fighting" it and instead, allow it to fully flourish unencumbered and this remains my wish.
December 30, 2023, 01:15:12 PM
The US Government has announced that they're no longer seeking a second trial against Sam Bankman-Fried and will not prosecute him for political campaign finance violations despite having donated a $100 million in stolen customer funds to various American politicians.
https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoinTV/status/1740953742860795976
https://twitter.com/SimplyBitcoinTV/status/1740953742860795976
The government's decision not to go forward, sounds like a cover-up to me, even though the size of your text was not a cover-up, so I reduced it to a more user-friendly and readable rendition.
The current #Bitcoin cycle looks very similar to the one in 2015, do you think we will follow a similar a path? 🤔
Source.
This will mean price going back to $33k which is possible but not feasible based on present reality. Halving is around, ETF approval is around and interest in BTC is at highest it has ever been with many nations like Argentinal, Colombia and other showing serious interest. Source.
It is just safer not to expect a $10k drop in price.
Even if such down before up does not end up happening, it does not hurt to be prepared for it, and a 30% to 35% drop in BTC prices down to lower $30ks is not unreasonable, even if it may well not end up happening, as you suggested Moreno233.
hmm maybe some cheap corn on the way.
It would not be first New Year's this happens.All the news tend to make everything look overly bullish, but you never know and it doesn't hurt to be prepared, just in case..
It is a given that each of us should be prepared for either price direction, and as a bonus we know that many of us who actively participate in this thread are more than sufficiently prepared for UP, yet there are some who are not, and surely amongst the normie population, there is an overwhelming majority that have little to no preparation for UP, and even if the BTC price were to drop, they would still fail/refuse to prepare for up by buying some cornz, in case it catches on.
December 30, 2023, 01:01:20 PM
December 30, 2023, 12:53:24 PM
Although I am not always active like you but I am not a new, I have learned a lot for more than 1 year, I want to learn more, so I want us all to discuss together and not get into any arguments with you.
Can I know the purpose of punching me?
I'm sorry I don't understand your question. Can I know the purpose of punching me?
If Ambatman says, "Roger that," and then a guy name Roger says "why you punching me".. then there's gotta be a reason, no?
probably batman (or perhaps batboy?) needs to slappening both ambatman and am homer... just for funzies.
Just saying...
poor robin.. or might I say poor roger.. taking so much punishening on this one. .
hahahaha
I should have put it into quotes, but I did not want to be too obvious in my attempts at punnening.
I saw "Roger that" and I did compare it with the handle "Roggeredek" and since I couldn't find any other reference looking back, I assumed Roggeredek was referring to that as the punch but I've never seen the term "punching" used in that way before - "paging" maybe?
I kind of read it as "why you coming at me like that?" so a non-native english speaker might not figure out exactly the way those kinds of ideas (or jokes) might be better understood in English, so he may have been approximating some expression from his own culture/language and trying to use that in English.
Anyway, I was stuck in my computer room because my youngest daughter had some friends over making a video for a school presentation
Admit it.
She is a tik tok influencer wannabe.
hahahahaha
and I was supposed to stay out of the way and yet be available to shuttle everyone home
Yeah.. "embarassing" having dad hang out too much in the area.
so I made a loosely related graphic. Sad but true. I did manage to get a cameo in the video though - I even got to say two words and I managed to do it in one take... which sucks when you're paid hourly.
Oh they "actually" let you participate, rather than your walking in and saying something like "oh shit?" and having that kind of an involuntary accepted into the final cut.
Something like this:
The current #Bitcoin cycle looks very similar to the one in 2015, do you think we will follow a similar a path? 🤔
Source.
Source.
No.
[edited out................ ]
Edit
No chance of that. $100k tops.Dear Lord,
This entirely redefines the concept of bullishness..
Are you bullish enough?
$1M BTC sure hits, but I'm confused about in 2024.This entirely redefines the concept of bullishness..
Are you bullish enough?
Edit
I get your possible ideas of momentum (and/or lack thereof), and even going based on where we are at versus the timeline of one year, so that if we are at a certain price point (which seems to be bouncing between right between $40k and $45k), then we may well not be in the right kind of a place to get 20x to 25x within a year.. but still the odds for $1 million in 2024 could not be zero and they likely are not zero.
Let me see? if I look at my December 2021 prediction, I can attempt to use those numbers and timeline as a kind of guidance for what I had then considered to be possible at that point in that cycle, even though we are currently in a different part of our current cycle.. including our momentum is in a different kind of a place.. so $1 million by 2024.. gosh? maybe I would put it at 1%-ish. or maybe less than 2%. but I am not going to put that kind of number within a year at zero..
And, gosh your other proposition of $100k as a top? That kind of a price could happen within a week or two, and maybe even much shorter than that, so it is hard to agree with your proclamation that $100k would be the absolute top for 2024, so even if you might end up being correct and have a decently strong base case for the BTC price not going above $100k before the end of 2024, there are probably pretty decent odds that the BTC price could get above $100k in 2024.. maybe even as high as 15% to 20%? which is nothing to sneeze at...
I would even be willing to bet, on one or both of your zero odd claims, if we could work out the right kinds of ways of framing the bet in terms of the odds that you gave, especially since you are assigning zero odds to either scenario, which you seem to be wrong on both points (in terms of your assignment of the odds), even if the chances of BTC not crossing either $100k or $1 million are in your favor to end up getting it right, the odds are surely not zero, so in that regard, your proclamation is surely bettable if you might be ready, willing and/or able to standing behind your claims and agreeing to bet on one or both of your claims of zero odds for those two scenarios.
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