Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1451. (Read 26732347 times)
December 31, 2023, 04:03:25 AM
December 31, 2023, 03:03:22 AM
December 31, 2023, 02:22:13 AM
. December 31, 2023, 02:03:22 AM
December 31, 2023, 01:01:42 AM
Providing enough blood isn't trivial.
Funny that you mentioned it..reminded me of a "sci-fi opera" called "The Hydrogen Sonata" by Iain M Banks.
It takes place many eons from now and anyone can have any body they want and you can change the body too (the explanation would take too long to post here).
Anyway...One of the characters there had either a dozen or 50 penises (it's biological engineering, of course... EDIT: he had up to 60) and, indeed, he had to have multiple hearts with most of them activating only upon a need to pump blood in those organs upon erection, of course.
Somehow, it felt/read kind of gross, but I am sure that imaginary fella had a lot of fun, probably
. December 31, 2023, 01:01:18 AM
December 31, 2023, 12:27:11 AM
December 31, 2023, 12:03:22 AM
December 30, 2023, 11:40:47 PM
December 30, 2023, 11:25:24 PM
Providing enough blood isn't trivial.
December 30, 2023, 11:01:15 PM
December 30, 2023, 10:58:27 PM
#3 2x in $$ would be nice (don't care about 5X), so I don't dismiss it and will look at it more.
Maybe I am not very clear about what you mean here, since if you and I have been into bitcoin a similar amount of time, we both went through 2015, so we both have had the opportunity for more than 7 doublings, just at today's price... so just another doubling or two? that is what you are saying that you want? But then would you be pulling out large chunks or just a reasonable chunk?.. so if we have a 2x from the previous ATH, or from where are you measuring 2x? The most logical point is to measure 2x from the current price, but that barely brings us out of no man's zone which still seems like anything under $100k is still a kind of bat country... so the suggestion that I had in the chart of $130k was tailored for some things that TrueMyth was saying. .but maybe that is a comfortable area for you too. .it is right around 2x of the previous ATH... just shy of it.. but still might be more reasonable than to expect BTC prices that do not end up being reached, if you are considering withdrawing meaningful chunks, whether that might be 15% to 25% or some other amount in that kind of a territory. .which surely would be a lot for me to even contemplate anything in that ballpark, but I am not going to completely say "no" to those kinds of possibilities... because I doubt that I would be hurt either way.. but I might be a bit more inclined to wait out a bit of a higher price, but I get so nervous about large strokes that I would just rather cash out 3% to 5% every 30% to 40% up rather than putting a lot of stress on one price point. and maybe that is part of the reason that I roll a wee bit different than you in terms of my own personal situation - whether it is psychology or other factors that might just be tied up in the way I have always done things that likely is a bit different from your seeming ways.
In this segment I was strictly talking about raking measured in $$, so 2X would be increasing my yearly $ spend 2X.
Similarly to rpietila, i am thinking about raking as a slow or very slow (and never ending) divestiture from btc to fiat and NOT about btc amount management.
In my mind, once i sell btc, I think that it is gone and it is unlikely that I would be able to replace it. Others can do it, but I was never able to do it properly.
BTW, when i was talking about a large chunk, I was thinking about, maybe 15-20% max (upon reaching 500K/1mil), with the rest riding essentially in perpetuity.
December 30, 2023, 10:44:41 PM
It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail
Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.
I don't have any qualms with these procedures, but the main question is: what is this "raking" in $$ for?Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.
Possibilities:
1. Maintaining the life style
2. Maintaining the life style while retiring (more raking is needed here).
3. Enhancing $$ spent 2X, 5X, etc
4. Selling a large chunk to invest in funding charities, properties, ventures, forming new enterprises, etc.
I personally had been using a variation of that chart since about mid-to-late 2015, and I was somewhat inspired by the SSS thread,
See:
I got (and modified) several of my selling on the way up ideas from Rpietila's (Risto) (RIP) 2013 Thread entitled.: (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan
but also that I wanted to use the sales as a form of insurance for downside BTC price possibilities, and it seems that I frequently explained to you that in 2015, I felt that I had gotten to a status of being overinvested into BTC because I ended up reaching close to 13.5% invested into bitcoin, rather than my self-authorized amount that would have (or should have) had been 10%.
So even though I began to employ a kind of strategy of selling around 10% for every doubling of the BTC price, I never really depleted my status of being overinvested into bitcoin because due to BTC's price appreciation and inspite of my continuing to sell on the way up starting from $250, the amount of my allocation to bitcoin went from 13.5% in late 2015 to nearly 80% in late 2017 and then corrected back down to its lows of 45% at various points of 2018 and even the correction of 2020 did not bring my holdings below having around a 55%-ish allocation into bitcoin.. and so even with such practices, I believe that I had some highs that were in the 90%-ish arena, and then maybe currently I am around 75%-ish.. so I continue to be quite overallocated in terms of my original goal of 10%, but then I think that i also could adjust my allocation to 25%, but that still does not cause my 75% to come down unless I sell on the way up, which largely I continued to be quite conservative in my own practices, and I am doubting if I am ever going to really resolve the matter, because I have come to a newer philosophy about letting your winners ride.. even though there is still a kind of underlying justification to be able to sell whenever I want in order to keep the bitcoin allocation into some kind of control.. because I am thinking that the correction in 2022 when we were at our lowest of around $15,479 in 2022, I probably still was not probably not less than 65% allocated in bitcoin as compared with my other quasi-liquid assets in my investment portfolio..
As far as your 4 suggested points:
point 1) I think it helps to bring balance in regards to having a whole bunch of extra cash and even questions of whether it will be needed for anything or not.. and becomes kind of optional. Do I care that the cash is not working? Not really. I think in the beginning few years, I was sometimes more bothered by the cash not working, but then I mostly got over that since I feel that I have continued to have too much bitcoin... I know.. I know.. I know. .You don't believe such a thing is possible..and I already tried to cover this from you from my perspective many times, and it just does not seem to sink in for you... Strange that.
point 2) I don't know. Sure, there might be some justifications to be more aggressive in terms of the raking amounts based on potential drying up of various other fixed income sources not keeping up with inflation, yet I get the sense that a kind of retirement situation is better covered by my time based system that is in the bitmover thread (website) rather than the price-based raking method.. which I personally had considered to be more of a BTC maintenance technique... oh and by the way, rptiela had frequently said in his SSS thread (to the extent that he was active or said anything) that once you rake whatever amount you had decided you were going to rake, then you should not be reinvesting it, and so my problem of reinvesting some aspects of it had caused my application of the rake to be somewhat different from what rptiela was recommending.
point 3) So far, since 2015, I had not applied my own tailored approach in that kind of BIG swings kind of way, but I can see how a person might set fairly larger upward swing targets and then just to really get some decent bang for the buck if the amounts are hit... which is probably more what rptiela was doing/intending in his thread and my way of bastardizing it moves a bit away from that, but my table (with the formulas that fillippone put in the Google Spreadsheet version) allows guys to set their parameters however they like including their choice to set attempts at rebuying to 0%, if that is what they so choose.
Of course, even with the limited amounts that I feel that I had been selling, I had still been benefiting from the compounding effects of letting most of my profits ride. Consider that if I were to cash out 50% every time the BTC price doubled, then I would be taking out all of the profits and there would be none at all of a compounding effect of the profits that roll over into the next period.. so even if you think about $250 to , there are more than 7 doubling periods.. so even if most of the profits were not taken out what was left in the fund compounded.. so there is a lot of extra reserve capital that could have had been taken out as profits that is just rolling over and over and over.
1) $250 to $500
2) $500 to $1,000
3) $1,000 to $2,000
4) $2,000 to $4,000
5) $4,000 to $8,000
6) $8,000 to $16,000
7) $16,000 to $32,000
8 ) $32,000 to $64,000
Point 4 In my system there is no selling of any large chunk, even though like I mentioned above, there is a lot of possibility to take out a decently large chunk and still just to be dealing with some fraction of the profits rather than really digging into principle (meaning the amount that was initially invested).
#1 personally, I don't need to sell anything for #1.
Me too... hahahaha I am thinking about getting a dig in, regarding your whimpy style.. but I am going to hold back for now.. it is not like I have to do it, even if I am tempted.
#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.
You are probably still pretty young.. I mean if you are getting into your 50s and 60s, then you are getting closer to actual retirement age, and gosh, maybe you and Phillipma1957 share the same ideation.. but I really am not sure if that is a place that a guy should want to be into his 60s.. even if there might be some fun in it.. yet at the same time, there are various kinds of work that might not really feel that much like work.
I really cannot answer for you, and surely there are people who are really rich, but they are working for power and status reasons rather than any need to actually work... At this time, if we might say that anyone with more than around $60 to $80 million territory is getting into the filthy rich category, even though I am pretty sure that I was considering $40 million as the beginning of filthy rich status prior to the March 2020 fiascos... but when people get into those kinds of levels of rich, they also might just be working but still doing the kinds of work that they like and they are not really having to show up if they don't want to.. even though someone like Elon Musk seems like a psycho.. but there are a lot of folks that are way below his level that still work and have in the supra $60 million status.
Let me just assert that $60 million would be a passive income of about $200k per month (which would be $2.4 million per year).. if we use 4% as our measure of a sustainable withdrawal rate. .. but if you have yachts, planes and even mansions, they can be a bit expensive to maintain.
#3 2x in $$ would be nice (don't care about 5X), so I don't dismiss it and will look at it more.
Maybe I am not very clear about what you mean here, since if you and I have been into bitcoin a similar amount of time, we both went through 2015, so we both have had the opportunity for more than 7 doublings, just at today's price... so just another doubling or two? that is what you are saying that you want? But then would you be pulling out large chunks or just a reasonable chunk?.. so if we have a 2x from the previous ATH, or from where are you measuring 2x? The most logical point is to measure 2x from the current price, but that barely brings us out of no man's zone which still seems like anything under $100k is still a kind of bat country... so the suggestion that I had in the chart of $130k was tailored for some things that TrueMyth was saying. .but maybe that is a comfortable area for you too. .it is right around 2x of the previous ATH... just shy of it.. but still might be more reasonable than to expect BTC prices that do not end up being reached, if you are considering withdrawing meaningful chunks, whether that might be 15% to 25% or some other amount in that kind of a territory. .which surely would be a lot for me to even contemplate anything in that ballpark, but I am not going to completely say "no" to those kinds of possibilities... because I doubt that I would be hurt either way.. but I might be a bit more inclined to wait out a bit of a higher price, but I get so nervous about large strokes that I would just rather cash out 3% to 5% every 30% to 40% up rather than putting a lot of stress on one price point. and maybe that is part of the reason that I roll a wee bit different than you in terms of my own personal situation - whether it is psychology or other factors that might just be tied up in the way I have always done things that likely is a bit different from your seeming ways.
#4 is quite interesting, but I envision that btc has to be in at least 500K-1mil range to me to attempt a significant move.
Well there are a couple of factors. 1st is how fast we were to get there. If we go shooting up from here to $500 to $1 million in 2024, like Samson Mow is suggesting, that just does not seem sustainable, which surely could even cause someone like me to be willing to take a BIGGER plunge than my usual somewhat "whimpy" incrementalism practices... but if it takes until late 2025 to get those kinds of numbers, I might be lulled once again into not recognizing the top when it ends up happening.. so then I might be less inspired to cash out BIG chunks.. but at the same time, even small parts of either of our portfolios.. yours at 20-ish BTC and mine at somewhat over 0.63BTC is going to add up to very sizeable amounts of money even if we just cash out some small amounts of our holdings in the $500 to $1million arena.
The other ambiguity is regarding what do you consider BIG Chunks? are you talking more than 25% of your holdings or even in the 30% to 40% range? Surely neither of us would be considering 50% or more in any one scoop? It does not seem to be necessary to go that BIG, unless we have some real way to learn how to spend that kind of outrageous money that is somewhat already out of the leagues of what either one of us are accustomed to dealing with... so it might be a bit uncomfortable to deal with that amount of money and trying to figure out where to put it or how to hold it..
So, I am in some kind of "quiet" zone right now. No need to make any moves, it seems.
Maybe, I simply lack imagination.
Maybe, I simply lack imagination.
Well, we would still have to have some kind of idea about how we might want to spend it, and if there are any ways that we can minimize the tax implications.. because sometimes if we are considering spending money that we had never had our whole life, then even the tax ramifications might also be higher than anything that we might have ever dealt with, too.. but for example, I know that you had previously considered some kinds of properties, and maybe that could be something, but even properties can end up being a lot of work... even if it is a matter of considering whether to keep on the same staff, or hiring a new staff.. if there was a kind of mansion situation, for example. I have also been thinking about these kinds of things over the last few years, and even in 2021, there were several ways that I was spending extra money, but it still probably was not enough., ..especially if we are talking about this time likely causing the 200-week moving average to be moving up quite a bit, which still is the measurement that I am looking at in regards to how assured I might feel about how much preparations that I might have to make in terms of how far dips might go.. and I have some difficult times considering that 35% below the 200-week moving average is going to be any kind of reasonable future expectation, even though I do believe it can happen and my time based sustainable withdrawal with bitmover website does attempt to deal with (and provide plans) regarding those levels of future dips... and they are still way the fuck higher than my current contemplations of any kind of a budget .. which means even the most outrageous dips still are likely going to allow spending that are higher than my current expectations of any budget.. so I guess I am just agreeing about some needs for imagination regarding how to manage the future budget ramifications of the supra 0.63 BTC.... and you with your 20-ish.
[edited out]
#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.
I am working at the mine 2 days a week. Will likely keep doing it for years past 70. #2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.
If true, that seems fairly reasonable....so maybe I should not be bashing on you so much... but I am not going to take anything back.. not just yet. There is a certain latitude in which we all have regarding making our own decisions about things, and surely some guys might bash us (or you) for some of these kind of choices.. so it can be good to stand your ground.. within reason.. but we also know that there can be some ease that goes into something that you are already used to doing that might not really cause it to feel like it is work that is draining upon us, and there can be some values with sense of purpose in regards to any kinds of things that we choose to do.
December 30, 2023, 10:26:32 PM
FYI (not that I endorse ANY of those entities):
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-list-of-every-wall-street-giant-seeking-to-launch-a-bitcoin-etf
Lower fees result in higher appreciation, presumably.
Invesco has a 0.59% yearly fee, but this fee will be dropped for the first 6mo until the fund reaches $5bil. So, first 5bil no fee, but not longer than 6mo.
Fidelity has a 0.39% yearly fee (which favorably compares with 2%-the current GBTC yearly fee). You lose 20% vs bitcoin every decade of holding GBTC (without taking the discount to NAV into consideration)
Valkyrie, 21shares and Ark Invest-0.8% yearly fee.
Others (including Blackrock)-undisclosed fee (or I did not find it). Could be low, though.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-vaneck-among-asset-managers-that-submitted-updated-filings-spot-2023-12-30/
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-list-of-every-wall-street-giant-seeking-to-launch-a-bitcoin-etf
Lower fees result in higher appreciation, presumably.
Invesco has a 0.59% yearly fee, but this fee will be dropped for the first 6mo until the fund reaches $5bil. So, first 5bil no fee, but not longer than 6mo.
Fidelity has a 0.39% yearly fee (which favorably compares with 2%-the current GBTC yearly fee). You lose 20% vs bitcoin every decade of holding GBTC (without taking the discount to NAV into consideration)
Valkyrie, 21shares and Ark Invest-0.8% yearly fee.
Others (including Blackrock)-undisclosed fee (or I did not find it). Could be low, though.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-vaneck-among-asset-managers-that-submitted-updated-filings-spot-2023-12-30/
December 30, 2023, 10:22:05 PM
It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail
Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.
I don't have any qualms with these procedures, but the main question is: what is this "raking" in $$ for?
Possibilities:
1. Maintaining the life style
2. Maintaining the life style while retiring (more raking is needed here).
3. Enhancing $$ spent 2X, 5X, etc
4. Selling a large chunk to invest in funding charities, properties, ventures, forming new enterprises, etc.
#1 personally, I don't need to sell anything for #1.
#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.
#3 2x in $$ would be nice (don't care about 5X), so I don't dismiss it and will look at it more.
#4 is quite interesting, but I envision that btc has to be in at least 500K-1mil range to me to attempt a significant move.
So, I am in some kind of "quiet" zone right now. No need to make any moves, it seems.
Maybe, I simply lack imagination.
I am working at the mine 2 days a week. Will likely keep doing it for years past 70.
December 30, 2023, 10:01:18 PM
December 30, 2023, 09:01:17 PM
December 30, 2023, 08:56:08 PM
It sounds like you have the potential tax ramifications figured out, and of course, you might be able to withdraw more than $89k per year depending on how you calculate the cost basis, and I am not going to talk about those kinds of accounting and/or tax matters in any kind of detail
Surely my price based table does account for your ability to cash out at various prices on the way up, however, you could also decide to follow my other sustainable withdrawal table in which bitmover created a website and a thread in which you could figure out a monthly withdrawal rate and then just figure out if your BTC stash exceeds the sustainable withdrawal amounts, which would be time based rather than price based, but there is a price based component in that one too, since it allows advance month withdrawals for better performing months, or reduced monthly allocations for lower performing months and at the same time figuring out your own level of conservativeness/aggressiveness (in terms percentages), and I have taken the liberty to describe 6-10% withdrawal rates as being moderate under a bitcoin system, and if you don't believe my assumptions, then you could choose a more traditional 4% withdrawal rate... which I classify as conservative and even a growth-inclined rate of withdrawal, when it comes to BTC.
I don't have any qualms with these procedures, but the main question is: what is this "raking" in $$ for?
Possibilities:
1. Maintaining the life style
2. Maintaining the life style while retiring (more raking is needed here).
3. Enhancing $$ spent 2X, 5X, etc
4. Selling a large chunk to invest in funding charities, properties, ventures, forming new enterprises, etc.
#1 personally, I don't need to sell anything for #1.
#2 If i decide to retire, then, surely, a bit extra might be needed, but I don't plan to retire just yet. US is breaking new records yearly on the number of un-retiring boomers. Work actually keeps the brain and the rest of the body in a better shape, that's for sure.
#3 2x in $$ would be nice (don't care about 5X), so I don't dismiss it and will look at it more.
#4 is quite interesting, but I envision that btc has to be in at least 500K-1mil range to me to attempt a significant move.
So, I am in some kind of "quiet" zone right now. No need to make any moves, it seems.
Maybe, I simply lack imagination.
December 30, 2023, 08:01:17 PM
December 30, 2023, 07:03:28 PM
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