Last time it breached the 200EMA within 9 weeks of ATH was in 2011 and it wasn't as deep.
TERA, you mean a long-term bear market is coming? If so, what is your bottom target: 3.5-4 or closer to the previous ATH, 1.5-2k?
I still believe in at least 13-16k bounce short term, price is recovering nicely so far, albeit slowly. I read the recent price action as an accumulation by big players.
Ive been saying for months there would be a bounce from 5.5K to the low teens before proceeding with the bear market. The next bottom after that would be 3K. However, it could take a really long time and there would be other bounces off 5.5K first.
Ya sure I remember at 20K this board had said bitcoin had matured yada yada and the 'big players were accumulating and manipulating it down to 16K'. As if the world's brightest investors hadnt bought at 1K and below and were suddenly interested at buying at a 1600% premium on top of a bubble at ATH. lol. Dont buy all the bull
Do you really think that wall street is one step ahead of everyone and bought in at $1k? That's ridiculous.
Some of wall street had only started to notice the existence of bitcoin after it went above $10k.. (coupled with some of the futures news) and bitcoin wasn't even on their radar before that (for a large number of them). A lot of wall street is still very skittish about bitcoin, trying to figure out what it is, and considering that it's liquidity remains way too low for them to develop any kind of financial products around bitcoin... Thus, seems early stages, early early stages, no?
You do seem to be describing in absolutist terms that bitcoin is closer to an early 2014 scenario rather than an early 2013 scenario, and you could end up being correct, but currently, I still would suggest that bitcoin is more closely in an early 2013 scenario.. maybe currently, I would place about 65% chance in favor of an early 2013 and 35% chance in favor of an early 2014 scenario.....
Many of us remain flexible in our projections about BTC's prices and direction and don't try to proclaim too many legs of price movements in advance, like some kind of divine sorcerer; therefore, if circumstances change, then I will adjust my thinking and perhaps, begin to believe that an early 2014 scenario would become more plausible based on facts and momentum, rather than mere speculative and hopeful proclamations.
By the way, if you had not noticed, you have been engaged in hopeful proclamations about bitcoin's supposed bubble ever since BTC prices went above $5k the first time in October, and I recall that you were proclaiming bubble even before that... and you been whining about BTC bubble ever since, which is nothing new.
Sure, recently, you have been proclaiming to be correct, now that BTC price finally came down - though that still does not make you a sorcerer, merely because you guessed the stopped clock correctly. Actually, BTC prices have not even come down to your pissed off going above $5k levels, yet..
... Hopium, Terabera, Hopium.
The TA matches 2014 more than 2013. Actually it matches 2011 even more. And why do you assume 'wall street' wants to buy bitcoin? Wall street is already doing what they do best which is to divert attention away to their own fake derivatives, their own coins, and their own stocks.
I am not assuming anything. I merely said that they (Wall street types) are looking into Bitcoin, and they did not even know about it before $10k. So how is my statement assuming in regards to their actual investment or their actual pushing this particular price rise - all by themselves? I suppose I am assuming that the more that Wall street types know about bitcoin, the more that their knowing about it could contribute to some kind of bullish impact on bitcoin.. and I am NOT even saying that buying pressure is coming from ONLY one aspect of the market.
Even you should realize that Bitcoin is much more than some simple kind of appeal to only one sector.. financialization is ONLY one of the several bitcoin networking effects that may well be in its early infancy stages. You are familiar with the seven network effects that are outlined by Trace Mayer? You need a link?
Do you think that those other six network (besides financialization) effects are not important in the overall consideration regarding where bitcoin is at and where it might be going? Do you think that those other six network effects have already sufficiently matured in bitcoin? or do you think that those other six network effects are still too early to potentially influence bitcoin into an early 2013 type scenario.
By the way, I like the way you even doubled down (NOT) on your bearishness by suggesting a 2011 scenario (which I think that you are implying that this particular BTC downtrend could be even longer than the one in 2014/2015, which I think is what you mean by your 2011 reference).
It is like ongoing that you, Terabeara, take these outrageous positions (like a troll) to spread FUD, and then later, when some semblance of the direction of your prediction moves in a direction of coming true, then you don't hesitate to take full credit for something that you did not even call - because like I mentioned earlier, you had been whining about BTC bubble ever since $5k, and I recall that you were even whining about BTC bubble when you first came back into the thread in 2015 as BTC prices were coming out of the long flat period, it did not take you too long to get back to your bearish talking points
(here's your return to the WO post for reference)... Even when you try to act like you have reasonable discussion points, you are flooded with persistent bearish BTC FUD spreading party pooping negativisms.
TLDR: TeraBera needs to attend some kind of BTC enlightenment camp that is NOT in the woods, so she can break her ties from bears, but more importantly break her ties from government/corporate shills. INTENSE reform is what seems to be needed for your lost cause status (if there is any possible hope?).
(actual website that sold pens, aka "Pen Island")
Love those days!
However, I assume how it works is that the contracts are settled every Friday. So the money/bitcoin is just exchanged between the people who hold the contracts at that time. So the effect on the market is only minimal, like CBOE, CME and Bitmex.
