(snip....)
The underlying question, of course, is: How can smaller creatures - human, tunas, herrings and minnows - see it coming?
This is a huge, but probably unanswerable question. But it is one that anyone smart is always hoping to find the answer to.
Markets are all about confidence and sentiment, so (sadly) there is no perfect answer, even though with hindsight patterns do repeat. But patterns can always be seen in the past and look obvious - seeing them coming again is not so easy. Like Elliot waves; it's always debatable 'which wave' we are in.
For long-term trend prediction (the big turning points), I think indicators of irrational bullishness /bearishness are as good an indicator of anything a crash, or rise is coming - but this is unmeasurable mathematically.
Short term - personally - I draw lines on charts endlessly, decide my favourite candle time scale and which MA to trade on and it usually 'helps' - but only enough to give me an edge. And it's an edge that works only if you work hard and spend a LOT of time on it.
I did sell off 20% in Dec, which was as much as I dared to because it was enough to change my life significantly - and I didn't know what the tax situation in my country was likely to mean for what I took out (plus it was still going up!). I felt strongly we would probably correct, and I remembered 2013, so I took 'some' out. I advised members of my close family who had anything to do the same (they chose not to).
I will say this:
With trends (not short term trading), the only thing that has worked for me is two methodologies:
1. Gut feeling (along with mentally preparing to 'sell to too early, if it's enough money to make a difference')
2. Listening to Tera.
Well, while you can't predict where in a given pattern we are at any given moment, you can use historical data to get a probability of certain patterns unfolding on different time scales. And to be profitable all it takes is to be right just over 50% of the time, which is something that isn't extremely difficult in inefficient markets. That does take a very specific toolset though, so it's not for everyone by default, although the required skills can be acquired by anyone. The problem is that figuring out the details takes a very long time, and humans are pretty dreadful when it comes to long-term planning.
I think what d_eddie was quite reasonably asking was 'what can we learn so that can we see the big stuff coming in future', since most here did not.
I use TA and in normal conditions I can trade with enough edge for it to work well enough to be worthwhile, after five years, I ought to have learned something - but I didn't know where the top was, and I am not totally certain BTC has bottomed out. To be really good, you need to sell all at the precise top, and then buy it back at the absolute bottom.
I doubt anyone actually did.
Perfection is not possible, but getting closer to it is a noble and sensible quest.
Without investing tons of time, treat it like anything else: copy a pro, and fake it til you make it. TERA is a pro. Max gains is not realistic - selling too soon for
GOOD gains flat out destroys panic selling on the way down, over the long term. You might catch a top or a bottom just right here or there, but never enough to beat the average of always good.