So if we rhyme with 2014 we go to $7k in next two weeks, have a quick rally to 11.5-12k before going back into bear mode and closing the year around $2.5k, from there recovery can begin with potential for New ATH in late 2020. Same multiple increase from 1/15 low to 12/17 high. Would give us a circa $320k high in 12/21 (EDIT). See you all in three years.
We have quite a different set of scenarios than we had in 2014 - so it is a bit more difficult to suggest that currently we are on the path of BTC price performance that is analogous to 2014... you could be correct, but I don't think that the 2014 scenario quite applies to our current BTC situation
A more likely scenario that I could see would be that we are in a kind of 2013 scenario, where the first rise in BTC prices is followed by a drop and then another rise in BTC prices. Accordingly, we have achieved our first BTC price rise when prices went from $250 to $19,666. Yet, these kind of analogies do not quite apply with any kind of exactness, so perhaps we would need to project our bouncing upwards point as starting at either $1k in early 2017 or more likely $2,600 starting off in August 2017, because I cannot see reasonable scenarios, in this particular seemingly ongoing Bull market that BTC prices are going below $5k (before we go back up), except perhaps a spike below $5k. If we end up going below $5k for any kind of substantial time (other than a spike), then certainly my tune (and assessment) would change, and I would thereafter consider that we are actually in a bear market as you suggest - but we cannot call a bear market merely because we are in about a 6 week price correction.. that is way too premature, even if you end up being correct about the ultimate playing out of the situation.
I will agree with you that if we substantially break $5k this time around, then $2.5k would likely be a next area of support and at that point, we would be in a bear market that is potentially extended out, like the one in 2014. In this case, I think that the more likely scenario is a floor that is $7 or $8k, and perhaps a spike down to $5k or $6k, and we would still remain in a bull market with a decently long price correction.
It does seem that a decent amount of support has been broken in the $10k territory, yet I still consider there is going to continue to be support for buying in the 4 digits, so if the price goes down, it is going to have to be on continued and ongoing volume and there is going to continue to be decent levels of support that continues all the way down to $7500.