Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 14895. (Read 26717412 times)

The new trend is the downtrend we go down for new ath what Will Be the bottom 

At this point, we have to ask if a decline has dominated, but only if these declines are more severe. It looks like it will be hard to see the levels above $ 15,000 like Bitcoin.

But then it would not be 500 billion anymore.

See the point? Its the same with tether and any other speculative asset.

People are looking to bitcoin as a way to increase their fiat money, not as a way to get rid of it, with a new system of value. Thats why they panic sell, theres not enough adoption.

For bitcoin and the other cryptos to really value 500 billion, people should not sell it, but use it in place of fiat. So, its a technical problem, the fees and scalability.

However, people dont pay attention when this is fixed, when the mempool is cleared and you can send it with a lower fee, they only pay attention to the media FUD. I paid 29 satoshis per byte to send 0.01 some days ago, and it was fast, was confirmed in less than one hour. When the network is not spammed, it really works.

The price also surged over 30% in the 7 days leading up to Dec 6th (~8500 -> 11500). Should we assume they had insider knowledge they were getting subpoenaed before hand and started the pump prematurely?

You aren't THAT dump? A 500 Billion MarketCap doesn't mean you can sell all the coinz for 500 Billion  
A 2 Billion cashout would crash the market to the bottom

In your scenario the asking price would drop to something like $0.01, only a few people would sell at current market value. If there are not enough buyers then price would drop to 0 and people would be stuck with an illiquid asset. Exchanges would likely be okay.

If the same happened in fiat - the banks would go under since they have more on the books than they hold in liquidity  

You have done well :-)
Without sounding prudish, in my experience 95% of people has no concept of long term planning, they act on basic immediate emotional impulses - that also explains these panic sell periods - which are so far has been always corrected upwards in the long term. Like, why would anyone, who is in for the long run and trust the principles of bitcoin would sell on a flash crash out of fear?

It has been proven many times, that day trading on sudden swings based on fear/greed leads to a net loss for more than 90%+ of the participants (net value gain is in a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_distribution, hence the long time strategy is hodling). i have found that studying psychology/philosophy of humans are more rewarding in economic endeavours than economics itself...

is it possible that a large asteroid hits earth? yeah
is it possible that on some island in atlantic a large rock will drop in the ocean, devastating US east coast? yeah
However, you can't trade based on these possibilities.

My take: reduced oscillation thesis

$32 peak, correction to $2 (94%). Bottom just 6.25% of the peak.
$1176 peak, correction to $175 (85%). Bottom just 15% of the peak.
$19760 peak, correction to? Linear progression of the trend suggests that ULTIMATE low would be $7113 if my reduced oscillations thesis is correct.

However, it is entirely possible that we will double peak like in 2013. In that case, the ultimate peak would be $50-132K, then a long bear with a bottom at 36% of the top give or take.
Therefore, if we go down to $7K relatively soon, then it would indicate that a bull market is about to start.
In an alternative scenario, we will bottom higher, then go to $50-132K for an ultimate bubble.

Not only that, but does anyone believe the network could actually handle the load of a mass selloff of all the bitcoin in world simultaneously? Not a chance. This is not HFT. It would take a year to process the backlog of something like that. Exchanges would just execute plunge protection and shut down. Couple that with their having to be a buyer for every seller, and double no chance.

Lets suppose a scenario where everybody wanted to cash out bitcoin and every other crypto-currency, to sell it for fiat, all at the same time, every single holder.

So, 500 billion dollars would be withdraw in a single day.

Do you think the exchanges would have that amount of fiat money?

Same thing with tethers, or with derivatives. Theres not enough money on Earth to cover all derivatives contracts at the same time. And thats how modern finance works. If they work that way, why bitcoin could not?

Bitcoin is a new system of value. What about we invert the relationship?

Instead of bitcoin, fiat will be the speculative asset, and bitcoin the currency. What about it? Would you invest in fiat state-sponsored money? Hey, bears, I just found the market for you, its fiat currencies. Its always going down.

So that now looks like they sh*t themselves and decided to pump the market to cash out in an attempt to recover all the USD they didn't have in reserve backing the Tether pool then. Exact same procedure as Gox when they found themselves in a fractional reserve situation - tried to recover to full reserve market manipulation with "fake money".


I'm sure we will. 1-2k incoming longer term. The entire year's growth is just gonna look faked now.

The point missed with derivatives is that not all of them will simultaneously payout.   Its more like insurance policies where there is a risk of many requiring cash payout but usually these derivatives expire worthless.

I dont know the deal with tether but it sounds like FIAT or even Mt.gox where price became centered to 1 exchange; inflated by fractional reserve which is not how Bitcoin pricing should be determined

I hear you, my man. My friends/family/coworkers were all the same way. I told them to get in when it was $250ish (2013), that it was potentially world changing, and I was laughed out the room. I still remind my old roommate about his response, "Yeahhhh, no thanks. I've got some gold coins, I think I'm good." Or my boss, when it dropped like a stone, "Ha! How's your bitcoin treating you now?" - He no longer speaks to me haha.

Back then, I was part of that $500 emergency group, as shameful as it is to say. I couldn't afford it; I was so far in debt from making some stupid mistakes when I was younger (well, more from stupid lawyer fees, but I digress lol ) that my credit cards/loans took everything (we're talking 10's of thousands). Still, I found a way to put $25-50 a paycheck into btc; skipped trips, partying, dating, etc.

Selling as it rose over the last 6 months, I can say I'm now debt free. Paid all my cards off, paid my student loans off, and I was able to put a small down payment and own my own place. I wish I'd kept all the messages from those same people over the course of December, "fuck you and your bitcoin". Sorry I'm not sorry, but it's never to late to join the party

As always, HODL; even better things are soon to come. Just don't think that's the end all/be all, spend some if it will make your life better. Just make sure not to sell it all

HA!  if I had a sMERIT...

Yes you can send Tether to BFX and withdraw USD.  There is a minimum transaction size.  Not sure amount it but it would be at least $10k.

Sure. But think about it like this. If they just wanted to sell, they would just dump everything without any corresponding FUD needed. But they obviously NEED some new FUD to short because the market is being stubborn and they can't shake out enough coins from exchanges.

It means they are getting desperate. It means that they are accumulating, not just selling off. And if they are accumulating, then for what future purpose? Whatever it is, that could be coming sooner than we think.

Bitfinex´ed on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/Bitfinexed/status/958420215301394432

Bitcoin surged 43 % in the 48 hours after the delivery of the subpoena.

Back then everybody attributed the price action to the launch of the Bitcoin
futures if I remember it correctly.

I´m still sure that we won´t see a real decrease in the Bitcoin price.
I think we will stay above 10k.

I've been wondering about this myself, seems like strategic FUD. Death by a 1000 cuts.

A panic could happen, and then? The fundamentals of bitcoin are still all there.

Anyone who will be finexed/tethered won't have my shoulder to cry on.