Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1508. (Read 26732153 times)

Lol.

 I already made him a unique hat.  Only the first one is free

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

You still gotta do what you can rather than getting distracted by the specific numbers that are used as an example.  You should be attempting to relate the concept, and surely there are some folks that are going to be struggling with $10 per week, and so they might have difficulties to either increase their income or to cut their expenses in order to get to higher amounts, but they still just have to figure out how much they can invest into bitcoin without going overboard in terms of their own budget.

Let's say that a person ONLY makes around $400 per month or maybe even less than that, and if they have abit of fluctuation in their income and expenses, but on average they are still figuring out ways to invest $10 per week into bitcoin which is about 10% of their income.

So if they are investing 10% of their income into bitcoin, it is still likely going to take them nearly 10 years to reach 100% of their salary saved up, so the extent to which their investment performs might affect where they are at in 10 years in regards to being better off with having had invested into bitcoin versus investing into other thing, versus consuming the $10 per week. 

People have choices, and they should not be deterred by the mere fact that they are not able to buy as much as others in order to still be able to recognize that they are more likely going to be more advantaged by investing into bitcoin versus not investing into bitcoin.


For sure, no one is saying that it is easy to figure out ways to get ahead in life, and there are people in the west who could easily afford $1k or more per week to invest into bitcoin, but they are not doing shit, and sure maybe the person in the 2nd level or 3rd level countries might not be able to completely catch up to the ones who have way higher incomes, but sometimes there are going to be comparables in which the one who consistently invests into bitcoin gets ahead after 10 to 20 years as compared to the one who is getting in much later.. and sometimes they will also be passing up people who had much more means than them, but the ones who failed to act end up falling behind, even if there may well be a lot of obstacles along the way and even if the income levels (and even information levels) might be very disparate. 

The person who invested $10 per week over the last 9 years ended up investing $4,700 and accumulating 3.6 BTC, and surely the person who is starting now is likely going to need to invest more than $200 per week and still may not be able to get to 1 BTC after 10 years... seems like there are advantages even with relatively poor people who get started early and attempt to be as aggressive as they are able to be without overdoing it.


It still does not mean that you should not start to invest into bitcoin and/or to try to be as aggressive as you can, and hopefully, you do not get distracted into shitcoins and/or trading merely because your brain is telling you that you are disadvantaged and that you need to take shortcuts...

In the end, you can do what you like, but there seem to still be a lot of advantages with bitcoin and focusing on bitcoin as compared with other places that you might put your time, energies and value.. but those are your choices, including if you believe that there might be reason to put your value somewhere else or if you might want to divide (dilute) your time, energies and value because you are not able to see the value of bitcoin right in front of your face... including that there are a lot of advantages to poor people to even have anything that they are able to invest into with such potentially small amounts such as $10 per week and perhaps whether or not they are able to increase their weekly amounts by increasing their income and/or cutting their expenses.


Wow. 

You sound like a very important person.   

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I am pretty sure that there are very high levels of GOX coin claims that were sold to BIG businesses that would likely have different motivations than individuals... In the past, many of those entities were saying that they were going to sell a lot (if not all) of their BTC, but the BTC price has gone up another 10x to 20x since they were making those kinds of claims, so maybe they would not sell, and even for businesses, it could be risky to sell with an expectation to move the BTC price down and then to buy back at a lower price later, so they might not want to play with their coins in those kinds of ways, even if they might already be mandated (in some of the circumstances) to sell based on their wanting to realize profits from the price that they bought at versus the potential 100x or so that likely would come from some of the claims that they were buying when the BTC prices were well below $500, and they were not even paying the full value of the claim, so they might have been buying BTC for $300 per BTC or even less..,.

..so some of those entities are likely holding 10s of thousands of BTC, and may well already have guidelines of selling the coins. but still does not mean that the BTC price is going to drop in any meaningful way beyond perhaps some short-term blips, as you already suggested to compare to FTX (but also to compare with so many coins being thrown at the BTC market in 2022 with fear around things like Terra/Luna, Celsius, Voyager, 3AC, Blockfi, Genesis, Grayscale, FTX/Alameda and perhaps a few others.. even some of the Binance drama)... ... but still, the ability for the BTC market to end up absorbing any of those potential extra coins for sale?  Does not seem that BIG of a deal, and sure there can be attempts to take advantage of momentum.. but would that mean sell coins? or just wait to be able to buy coins, "if" such dips end up happening, whether they even do end up happening.


That's true. hahahaha

 It does not tend to be a good idea to talk about shitcoins or vague references to crypto in this thread unless you are able to put it into some kind of potentially interesting context.. and I am having difficulties imagining any potentially interesting context .. unless you criticize the article for their talking about shitcoins, but even some of those kinds of superficial analysis don't necessarily play very well... and surely there are some mainstream articles might mostly be talking about bitcoin, but they are not using the word bitcoin, so sometimes it might be helpful to point out if an article might be largely about bitcoin even though it is referring to various shitcoins and also making vague references to shitcoins.

Many of us likely realize that there are quite a few interesting things going on in regards to bitcoin, but some of the earlier alerts to what is happening ends up coming through some publication that does not know how to use bitcoin in a sentence, and we still might want to break the news without necessarily getting trapped into the bad habits of "everyone else does it".. which surely is true.. there are a lot of smart people who seem incapable (or perhaps unwilling) to use the word bitcoin, which surely might end up causing us to wonder whether they actually know what they are talking about if they are unable to use the word bitcoin or they fill their sentences with other non-bitcoin descriptions and presume that they are still talking about bitcoin even though they are using vague language to supposedly accomplish such. 

Aaah Homer he’s just craving for an unique hat….

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Are your daddies “geniuses”?
Because my Father in the Heavens is the Alpha and Omega.

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Ahh, xhomerx10 you fucking scumbag.
Actually I consider my tiny self Socratic, you know, Antisthenes’s mentor, dubbed the Christ before the Christ.

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Poor spirit, by definition.
Indeed you will bite the dust, your master will make sure of it.

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Hahaha, come on - you’d wish - I’ve got things to demolish.

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That would be a “he” for you dickhead.

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Right.
Not that you opinion matters, but talking about crossing critical thresholds, reminded me that I’ve got something to tell you:

I am a Christian.


Brother …
Christ travelling to India before and after the crucifixion drama, is symbolic to the tolerance we all need to have, towards people of other dogmas and religions. It does not matter where they are in the world, what they believe in and what they practice, as long as they are able to find the light within - the way Jesus Christ demonstrated - the only way - thus becoming Christ themselves.


Not in any way you can conceive, for you are blind.

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Your body is weak.


It is by far the most wicked one of the bunch, and is held responsible by orders of magnitudes for the degeneration and degradation of these “modern” times. Their reversed cross is a pure insult to the word of my Father in Heavens.

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I’ve already read that you love your neighbours, but you got to show some affection to the animals too.


Indeed!
That donkey Cryptotourist used to say “music is the answer” and “God is a DJ”.
Turns out that this is only partly true, because the word of our Father in Heavens is the ultimate all inclusive answer, and He is not just a DJ - for He is everything.

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Well, read above, I’m sure you will figure it out, not.



He knows you moron.



Let me think for a sec … ehh no.
But I do enjoy how you greedy bastards, like to invoke Jesus Christ - amidst your filth - yet in a totally blasphemous kind of way.

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Live fast die young.

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Oh fuck off to hell already.



What evidence?
You mean the lying mainstream propaganda you so push forward, right!



Oh?


Here is some perspective for you punk:


I wish my dad could see that too, but he can’t see shit. I’m hoping that it’s not too late for him.
#always.trying

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He is not, because it’s too late for you - your wickedness is too advanced - and neither am I - for you cannot be helped any more.
#remember.free.wiil



He can’t because you are already cursed, dah. But do worry, your master will take “care” of ya.

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Christ is real, “Santa” is not, you unbearable repulsive swine.
If you think that I’m insulting you, I’m not, rather it’s called “affection to animals”.



Good grief.
Doesn’t matter, you demons are already on your way down were you “belong” - better even - never belonged.



For Father’s sake, you are so dead.

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Later.

So maybe we could say that even if you made a BTC purchase near the middle of 2015, you really were not engaging very much with the idea of bitcoin, so perhaps just taking a bit of a stake as a "let's see what happens," so then maybe you did not get lured into starting to study BTC until the end of 2015, so in essence yes, you got active in BTC around a couple of years after me, but I was largely trying to study bitcoin right from the start of my investing into it.. so I was active in other bitcoin-related threads before I came to this forum in late February 2014.

And, so it still seems that part of my point stands in which we might have some investment without very much conviction, and so our conviction grows over time, and yeah, maybe it is not exactly religious to throw some money at something, but there might be some perceptions of possible value that makes it greater than a 50/50 gamble, but then the more real points to show conviction still might have to do with deciding to become more aggressive about your bitcoin investment.

In my own self-assessment, I do consider that i was fairly aggressive right from the start, because I looked into bitcoin for maybe a couple of weeks prior to making my first purchase at the end of November and towards the exact then top, but then I also created a 6 month budget for myself and a plan to buy BTC every week for the next 26 weeks.. and then after those first 26 weeks to continue with a similar plan for the next 26 weeks, so that would then get me to a year of investing into BTC, which I would consider to be pretty aggressive but still within boundaries.. since by the time I got to the end of a year (2014 - a year of being in bitcoin), I figured that bitcoin had constituted about 10% of the total value of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and so in that regard, I was more aggressive than some of the guys that I call whimpy in these here parts, so level of faith and conviction can vary, and maye the extent to which there might be motivation to invest into something like bitcoin, but then there can be some stylistic matters that change mindsets between someone who is DCA'ing versus someone who is lump summing or buying on dips. .. and sure there can be overlap, but sometimes mindset can affect practice, but practice can also affect mindset.

We may or may not end up in similar places, because some people get distracted into shitcoins and have a lot of difficulties getting out of the shitcoin trap, and then there can be other aspects of a person's investment experience that might contribute towards looking at bitcoin compared to other investment possibilities in a certain kind of way.


Who is "we?" Do you have a rock in your pocket?  O.k. maybe that response was overly argumentative, but I could not resist.


Well if you are attemtping to figure out what might happen right after 2024 halvening and/or between 2024 and 2028 and also after the 2028 halvening, then surely those are more potentially pressing speculations than some of your earlier speculations regarding what might happen in 2056 or 2140-ish.


I doubt that we need to really get into analyzing those kinds of dynamics in order to consider that bitcoin is likely going to continue to be more and more valuable in the future, especially since it remains scarce and nothing about the various mining dynamics seem broken or disincentivizing the continued mining of bitcoin, even if there surely could be more and more flattening of the 4-year cycle, but why do we necessarily need to go into expectations of flattening of the 4-year cycle in any kind of profound way, prior to our actual ability to see such dyanamics of flattenening or disappearance of the 4-year cycle playing out.

Look at my entry-level fuck you status chart that currently goes to late 2074, and so you might have had been able to see that my previous versions attempted straight-line and diminishing return curves, which are largely projecting out entry-level fuck you status based on expected valuation of the 200-week moving average, but historically it looks like we have seen 2 years up and 2 years down in terms of the intensity in which the 200-week moving average had continued to go up, and even in our worst 18 months ever (between June 2022 and October 2023, in which BTC's spot price continued to stay below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time), we still barely even got below 10% increases in the 200-week moving average for each of the latest 6-month periods.

Surely at some point the 200-week moving average might go negative, but I am not going to assume such going negative until I see such a going negative, and it just seems a better presumption to continue with positive numbers and likely with continuing to expect some kind of a pattern of diminishing differences between the time that the 200-week moving average might be moving up versus when it might be moving down and maybe it just ends up into some kind of a straight line that might end up being between 4% and 8% per year with an average around 6%..?  and I even hate to speculate with that level of specificity, since it is likely that we will need to tweak these kinds of projections and expectations to attempt to line up with facts that develop.. and some aspects might be difficult to know what will happen but also what affects the future happenings will end up having on the price (in terms of the 200-week moving average if that might be a kind of bottom measurement that seems currently valid but also could become less valid in the future).  

In any event, I don't see any reason to tweak any of these kinds of dynamics based on nearly pure speculation and even missing several components that could affect other components, unless you want to propose your own version of something like what i had projected out that is based on decreased mining subsidies and higher percentage of fees.... which again, those are likely driving incentives to mine, but I doubt that those dynamics are driving other aspects of BTC price since BTC price likely has another considerable affect on the incentives for whether and/or how miners might choose to engage in such operations/occupation...   And, no problem that surely we are likely going to continue to end up with greater and greater flattening of some of the ingrained bitcoin price dynamics that are based on 4-year cycles.


But it is all a BIG so what? if we are trying to talk about BTC price dynamics, and if you are frequently trying to suggest that hash rate is driving BTC prices.. and I am not sure what point you are wanting to make that is even needing to be speculated upon, since we largely agree BTC prices are going up.. but we might have differing ideas about by how much and whether any kind of cycle dynamics might continue which also might be a who cares aspect, unless you are trying to trade such price waves, which you have already admitted that you are way more into those kinds of selling too much on the way up and expecting to buy on the way down than me, and so maybe if you are questioning if the BTC price is going to go down, then maybe you will sell less than what you would have had sold otherwise, but I doubt that any of that affects me very much, since I just follow my system and it becomes a BIG so fucking what if the BTC price does not end up coming down.. I don't care either way, even though I hardly have any reason to believe that hype cycles are  not going to continue in something similar to a 4-year pattern, even if they might not be exactly materially driven by new supply constraint dynamics.

“A well-designed CBDC could serve as a public alternative to these cryptocurrencies and potentially crowd out their usage.”

The fix is in and has been since Day 1: Elizabeth Warren wants to kill Bitcoin to make way for a central bank digital currency.

Anyone supporting Warren’s anti-money laundering legislation—including the five Senators who signed on yesterday—is just a pawn in her game.

As Warren’s strategy becomes clear, she may try to downplay her past statements on CBDCs. But we have the receipts.

Warren began her anti-crypto campaign in earnest on June 9, 2021. On this day, she hosted a Senate hearing with three hand-picked expert witnesses who all levied various attacks against Bitcoin. But the Bitcoin broadsides were merely an opening act for the main event: the supposed merits of a Federal Reserve-backed CBDC.

The title of the hearing says it all—“A Stronger Financial System: Opportunities of a Central Bank Digital Currency.” Over the course of nearly two hours, Warren attempts to convince her colleagues and the American public that Bitcoin is a danger to the environment and national security—and that the only viable alternative to crypto is a CBDC (see clip below).

Warren is more subtle now, but the goal remains the same: eliminate all competition until Americans have no choice but to bank directly with the Fed.

Each Senator that co-sponsors Warren’s bill gets her one step closer to that goal.
https://x.com/SamLyman33/status/1734607599583088718

Looks more like my view when we hit the top of you ask me.

More seriously though, it does appear that this was a needed correction and so far the market has been building on that bottom instead of retesting it, so that’s a positive sign. With any luck we don’t see a lower low from here and can get back to pushing towards $50K.

Not downsizing that bottom… though I always hope bottom is in…

Moonboy #1

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I was reading the last pages of the thread, and i want to make a mention.

When everybody talks about 100usd per week into investing in BTC, that its quite good and sustainable for first level countries, but in low income countries sadly if you dont catch the BTC in their very very early stages is difficult right now to accumulated some decent quantity.

Also in second level countries like Brazil it can be so much money for the regular person. The other problem in very low countries was, in the very eraly stages of btc like 2010 until 2015 it was difficult also to buy BTC, because in some cases people doesnt have internet or even where to buy, and in a lot of countries the acces to foreign currency is difficult.

Now that problems still exist b ut the market is much bigger than before and you have the opportunity to buy more easily, but now you cant buy so much with a very low income.

Bottom?

Because brain is excited for halving Event.