Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1510. (Read 26732210 times)

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ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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It is time to get beyond MtGox for good, it gets a little old and annoying after 10+ years. So please forgive our sins holding coins on a playing cards exchange, and let's get it out of the way for a clean run to new ATH's.

I guess Heaven BTC helps those who help themselves

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Doesn't sound like the same JJG that I know.

Sure any of us sometimes might make arguments that might seem self-contradictory or even arguing from various stances, but if you might think about my posts have never really wavered very much from assertions that BTC price dynamics have a lot to do with 1) stock to flow, 2) 4-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects (referring to those espoused by Trace Mayer).

So sure, there might be times when I might take some counter-positions, but frequently I had gone back to those same points, and I have not really stopped saying those kinds of things even if there might be some problems with the various squigglies that Plan B wrote out, but  I am not against the idea, even if the exact numbers might not be correct. 

I don't tend to be a big fan of supercycle or nonsense about bitcoin's price following hashrate, but that does not necessarily mean that I am consistent in terms of all of my posts or that some of my other ideas might seem to contradict from time to time..

I also don't tend to take for granted short-term price moves, and even that anything is close to guaranteed, so if someone is even arguing something that I agree with but describing it as a certainty rather than a probability set, then that could also cause me to take the opposite position... or at least seem to take the opposite position, because I frequently will fight back with assertions that I perceive to be too rigid, even if I might agree that whatever had been asserted to be the most likely scenario.. because even most-likely scenarios rarely have confidence levels that would even be higher than 60% or so, unless maybe some kind of a real short term set up.. but even then, I tend to be a wiffle-waffler when it comes to many aspects of BTC price matters, even though it is an ongoing topic in these here parts..


You come up with some doosies, sometimes... and yeah there are going to be changes in the ratios in which miners are more dependent upon fees rather than subsidies.. so yeah, each halvening we will see the extent to which the BTC price goes up which would be at least doubled ever four years for the halvening to have the same effect on the reward... so surely, it is difficult to predict that many legs in advance without necessarily knowing price, and if BTC price doubles every 4 years, then perhaps that is enough to have the subsidies to have the same effect, but we know adoption is going up too.. so usage and fees are likely to go up, as you project... so in the end ?  what is the punchline? 

Are you suggesting that something is supposed to be anticipated from this?  I am anticipating the BTC price to continue to go up.. and likely the halvening will continue to have effects for the next 10-20 years.. and sure maybe more, but can't we just adjust our theories as we go instead of trying to overly concretize whatever we believe is going to happen 20 years or more?  Does it matter very much?  We have some tentative ideas about what is going to happen, so what good does it do to attempt to get even more specific in regards to our wannabe sorcery in regards to the future?


There is no need to get too caught upon the particular amount that I used in the example


Exactly, $100 a week is not a big deal in many parts of the western world, but people still don't regularly save into anything, and it is a stretch if they might save in a kind of 401k plan or perhaps save up for a house, yet many times, people in the west (including all people) would likely put themselves in a much better place by creating some kind of a modest bitcoin investment strategy, even if the amount that they invest might not be up to western standards, and perhaps they are struggling to put $10 to $50 per week into bitcoin, so whatever, the amounts do not matter as much as figuring out if you are even able to invest in the first place (which means that you are able to generate cashflows that exceed your expenses while maintaining some kind of an emergency fund that might be 3-6 months in advance, too).


I don't know about whether the mere fact that the BTC price ended up correcting rather than getting above $45k would rise to the level of meaning that there was a lot of resistance at $45k rather than just difficulties that sometimes might exist for buyers to keep up when the BTC price keeps going up, then the buy demand has to be able to keep up with such upward movement of the price, so sure then we end up getting some kind of a BTC price correction.. which is barely into the 10% territory so far.. as OGNasty already mentioned.

But yeah, it still could be that we end up bouncing in a range that is from $35k to $55k for a while, and maybe we could try to hone in upon whether our new "don't wake me up zone" might end up fitting into these kinds of parameters, even though having $20k as the range does seem to be quite large - but part of the idea of "don't wake me up zone does become a kind of area in which the price movements within that area may well not be really BIG significances, but if we start to get to the edge of the zone (in either price direction), then it starts to get interesting about whether a break out might occur in one direction or the other.. and sure, if we move within the don't wake me up zone a lot, then that might also trigger a waking up even though maybe in the whole scheme of things it could be questionable whether waking up is justified as long as we are within the newly create don't wake me up zone.. if it might become reasonable to conceptualize such a zone and maybe tweak its boundaries a bit in order to attempt to take into account our current contextual realities.


What you are saying doesn't seem totally unreasonable, and so if $40k consitutes right around a 10% correction, then $35k would be a bit over a 22% correction, and $30k would constitute about a 33% correction.  So none of them seem totally unreasonable... Whether they are going to happen or not, might be another story.. I am not going to count on either of them happening, but I am also not going to be surprised if such things were to end up happening, either.. either down to $35k or even down to $30k.. they are just not givens.. but things that reasonably could end up happening.

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Let us prey.... upon those who fail to hodl.

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Why would we give any shits about Ethereum in these here parts?


And then "crypto?"  Why do you want to talk about that?  to the extent that "crypto" means anything that might be related to topics of his thread?


That's what I usually say.. 50/50. or maybe sometimes there will be more nuance when we add sideways into the equation.. but still the end result may well be something close to a coin toss with a slight advantage to one side or another depending on things happening at the time of the observation.


Let us pray.



Those of us who are so inclined.


Maybe it will happen, and maybe it won't?  - whether "appropriate" or not.. that's another story.



Yes...

Which way creates the most pain?  Perhaps UPpity is more painful than downity.. especially for those who had been underinvesting, fence sitting or otherwise failing/refusing to adequately prepare their lil selfies for UP.

mmh ok.. gox coins seem to be coming..

I hope I'm wrong but my guess is we go down to 35k at least, maybe testing 30k.  Bears have been slaughtered recently so they will cling to any fud they can.  Apart from an ETF denial, which is unlikely, this will be their last big chance.  

Again, I hope I'm wrong.  But on the other hand, a good shakeout has always been positive for a parabolic event afterwards.  And people are just a bit too bullish right now, imo.

Regarding leverage, there could have had been some ways that Saylor might have had been gambling in ways that were greater than he had said that he was doing, but Saylor was not even close to being that level of overleveraged. 

The dumbass overleveraged twats were trading with their bitcoin and trading with other people's bitcoin, so they were going quite a bit further than Saylor in term of the kinds of leverage plays that they were pursuing... and sure there were some of the BIG players who were able to get out of some of those gambling products prior to their crash. and so yeah, normies sometimes will get risky and daring in their own ways of leveraging based on their witnessing what others are doing and even misreading the abilities of their own cashflows to service their debts in the event that their investment does not go in the direction that they had anticipated.

As far as weekly candles, at the time of your post we were already at the beginning of a new weekly candle, so it is not as difficult to make a new weekly candle to be red as compared with our streak of 8 weekly candles, and including the last one that closed yesterday at $43,786, there would have had been needs to bring that one down to below $40k to have had been able to close it in the red, rather than it's closing in the green.

So then this week's candle becomes a different story and so it is opening quite high at $43,786, so it is not going to be easy to necessarily get it to close in the green, but how likely is it to have more than 8 green weekly candles in a row.. so it could hardly be bearish to have this 9th candle to come out red rather than green.. but I am not going to take it for granted or even pre-judge since we have more than 5.5 more days before this current weekly candle closes.. and whether or not it is able to get back above $43,786 seems like sleeping kind of information.. even though getting back above $43,786 would be kind of exciting to have 9 weekly greens in a row... .


There can also be ways to roll the 401k into a qualified account in which you would be able to buy BTC through such qualified account, but I heard that some of the rolling over into qualified accounts are getting more and more difficult to accomplish... especially the self-directed kinds of ones that would allow you to directly hold BTC rather than using a qualified custodian... but who know with ETFs, there might be some attractive options.. but still might not get quite to the same level of self-custody.. but they would still mostly get the BTC exposure without the penalties and still presumptively this would not be all of you BTC since you already hold BTC separately from those accounts, so you may well end up having way more BTC held privately as compared to the 401k or even a 401k that would be rolled over into some kinds of accounts that would be able to get BTC exposure without the withdrawal or the tax penalties, and remain tax deferred, too.


I cannot remember your exact story in terms of your bitcoin entry date, AlcoHoDL.. but I was thinking that maybe you were only a couple of years after me... .. but let's say that we both got into bitcoin and we had some similar kinds of faith in bitcoin, even prior to its having as long of a track record, and even prior to it even coming close to $300 Billion in market cap... .. but surely we had some conviction, and perhaps our conviction increased in a kind of Lindy effect kind of way, just as bitcoin's investment thesis likely got stronger and stronger and stronger in a kind of Lindy effect way, especially after some challenges that we might not have had completely understood either how they would resolve or what exactly was motivating the challenges or if there might have been some hidden challenges that we were not appreciating, and no one was catching.. even with the crowd-sourcing effect of reviewing the code but at the same time thinking that there has to be great incentives to review the code with billions and billions and billions of dollars of value being stored within the system, but then other businesses and systems being built on 2nd and 3rd layers that were dependent upon the success of bitcoin in order for their own businesses and time, energies and money being spent upon investing into bitcoin.


As longer term bitcoiners, we likely have some responsibilities, like elderly statesmen, but at the same time not necessarily being patronizing to the fact that there are people who take a while to convert from nocoiners to low coiners and perhaps transitioning into coiners who have a significant and meaningful investment of time, energies and value into dee cornz.

And, surely our responsibilities are voluntary since we can be gentlmanly about the whole matter or we can be dicks, and surely there are all kinds of folks in bitcoin in the sense that bitcoin is for enemies, so we might not even want to be helpful to some people who end up getting into bitcoin.


I believe... and yeah, it may well be a very lose religion at best, based on quite a bit of maths and sciences. but at the same time having connections with humans too.. even though very difficult to change certain aspects.... because humans that want to change it have to convince other humans who don't want to change it, in which consensus is likely more powerful than democracy in terms of the difficulties to change.. a kind of philosophy in that if it is not broken, then don't fix it... and either get involved with it (in terms of your time, energies and value) or choose not to...

The weekly candle saw some correction at last hahaha gonna test the support range 39K-37K max I hope

Btw do u guys know about Bookmap?

Explanation
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The country where I live (Pakistan), 100$ per week (or 400$ per month) is not a small amount. Here average income is around 300$ per month. I try my best to accumulate as much as I can but investing 100$ per week is not in my reach TBH. If you are from developed country like USA where average income is 8000$ for such people investing 100$ in Bitcoin or any other asset is not a big deal.
Rest I do agree that there can be resistance at 50 or 55k rather with current dip we can inferior that Bitcoin has its first resistance at 44/43k before it make its way to 50k.

Well yes.  There is a difference between real and nominal, and so one of the incredibly deceptive aspects of money printing comes through when we see people who are actually believing that they are getting ahead because they are earning higher and higher interest rates, and we even had some of those same kinds of dynamics with member(s) trying to sell the idea of US Govt bonds merely because they are earning 5% or 6% annual interest, and so these are not even dumb people who are lured into these products because there can be a lot of uncertainties regarding where to put your money.. and surely those people who had been sucked into US Govt bonds in 2022 and even this year, while bitcoin prices were either in the low $20ks or in the sub $20ks can now see that they would have been way better off to put that same money into bitcoin.. and sure, no problem if you have a lot of money and you want to diversify into a variety of kinds of investments(savings), but some people do not have much or any bitcoin and they get lured into those kinds of inferior products that might not show themselves as inferior until way down the road..

Similar to much of 2020 when there were a lot of opportunities to get into bitcoin below $10k - and surely a lot of people could have still gotten into bitcoin below $8k, even if they might not have had been able to time some of the greater BTC crashes into the lower $6ks and even the March 2020 crash that got as low as $3,850... but even if we take $10k as an average price that someone might have had been able to get into bitcoin at various points in 2020 and perhaps even making several mistakes along the way, they still would have preserved a lot of purchasing power in BTC even if we are not going based on the higher spot price fluctuations that brought us up to $69k, but if we look at a more steady assessment of average BTC price, we still see that the 200-week moving average went up from around $5k in early 2020 and currently showing itself at $29,306.. and yeah, the 200-week moving average seems to be a decent way of valuating bitcoin in terms of bottom prices (even though it is not an absolute bottom)... right now it is going up at a rate of about $24 per day.


Personally, I believe it is better to try to keep some of those kinds of accounts open, as long as they are not costing you too much money in terms of minimum deposit sizes and/or fees for keeping them open... so what is the threshold? and are they more problems than they are worth?  I am not sure..


Yes.. in real terms it is not likely earning any interest.. and may even be costing you, but many accounts do not offer any interest at all... and so in that sense either way it is costing you to keep very much value in those kinds of accounts.. so yeah, I am not sure of the balance, and I am not sure if it necessary to close those kinds of accounts, but maybe to be careful in how much value that we hold in those of accounts and recognizing that they are costing us money to maintain value in them.

I have several bank accounts and most of them don't earn any interest, but sometimes it is going to be difficult to do certain things without some of those kinds of accounts, and it can be problematic to lose your banking history or your credit, and sure some people cannot even get credit and we are likely transitioning away from credit systems, yet it could take 50-200 years to really get into a bitcoin standard, and even in the next 10 to 30 years, it is likely going to remain valuable to have some abilities to transact within traditional systems.. and some systems are not going to allow or recognize bitcoin transactions.. and if those are the kinds of limitations that you want, then that's your choice.. There are bitcoin pioneers who want to push limits and ONLY have their value in bitcoin (or mostly), but I have my doubts about the practicality of that way of living especially for the vast majority of normies.. unless you really are able to do it without suffering too much.

By the way, the vast majority of normies know fuck all about bitcoin, even if they might have had heard the word, and even a lot of bitcoin HODLers do not know very much about bitcoin... so it seems way better to try to get more and more people holding bitcoin and even to transact directly in bitcoin.  I have a system in which I have been giving quite a bit of bitcoin away even in recent times (to friends and relatives), so one of the requirements is just to have a bitcoin address.. and at the same time, I talk about the power of having your own wallet .. and so many people gravitate towards various custodial services. and opt for the easy way out.. so it can be difficult to interact with these kinds of people and even some people refuse to get a bitcoin address.  

I had a friend contact me recently.  He is in his late 40s.. perhaps close to 50, and he has a family and likely terminal or close to terminal illness.. even though he has quite a bit of hope  and surely is not a dumb person in terms of his education level and abilities to understand complicated topics (and nuances), and so much back and forth with him about my willingness to send him way more money if he gives me a bitcoin address, and so far he has refused and I am getting ready to give up.. but there still is some value in going back and forth and never really giving up completely, but maybe from time to time pausing in the intensity of the back and forth communications..  I even told him that I give no fucks about if he even holds onto the bitcoin, he can cash it out right away, but I am ONLY going to send him higher amounts of value (I already sent some value in dollars) if he gives me a bitcoin address.
 

I can relate.  I do those kinds of travels myself, and sometimes it can become quite challenging.. so surely if you are not yet up in age, then you might be imaging some of the matters in terms of age, but there surely can be some challenges when moving from place to place.


I was very tempted in 2014 to the same thing, and surely I would have had done way better with my bitcoin investment had I cashed out some of my dollar based funds and put them into bitcoin, yet in the end, I suppose i am glad that I did not do it, even though they would have had been way more valuable.. and I think that there is some value in keeping some of those accounts active, even though they are largely melting icecubes... and they are not appreciating even close to as much as bitcoin.

Largely I like to suggest that I was already financially independent by the time that I came to bitcoin in late 2013, and so part of my motivation in getting into bitcoin was to be able to hedge my various dollar based investments, so I considered that it could take me close to 15 or 20 years to be able to get my bitcoin side of my investment to be somewhere near the same size as my dollar based investments, but largely it seems to have had ONLY taken around 3-4 years.. and sure I tell variations of this story, but if you take all of my dollar based investments and you might see that they grew around 80% or so over the past 10 years, but my bitcoin investment grew more than 40x (depending on how you calculate the matter), and I say that I could completely live off my various fiat based investments if bitcoin were to go to zero, so that is part of the rationale to just keep the fiat based investments in place, and at the same time, maybe we could say that if bitcoin is valued around $3k to $4k, then my bitcoin investments are valued about equally to my various fiat investments..

so either one could go to zero (and maybe we have to use the 200-week moving average as our way of valuating the bitcoin investment), but if we also look at bitcoin from a $3k to $4k valuation, then if the 200-week moving average is getting close to 10x that size, and so there is almost like a 10x (or would it be 9x?) cushion?.. and so is that too much value to have into bitcoin as compared to the fiat side?  I am not sure, but it still seems that I could completely live off the fiat side of my investment if bitcoin were to go to zero, but there still could be various points in which some additional shaving off of the bitcoin side could be considered as prudent practices to make sure that not too many eggs are in one basket.. even though the fiat side is not really doing that great in terms of holding its value relative to bitcoin and even relative to maintaining purchasing power, so it seems that putting bitcoin value into some of the fiat side is like throwing that value into a bit of a dark hole in which the bitcoin side bails out the fiat side.. just to maintain the fiat side as a kind of functional system.. just in case the bitcoin side might not hold up.. Seems like low odds of such, but it is not non-zero odds.

Explanation
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Bitcoin weekly candle shows it closed eight green weekly candles in a row, and we started a new week with a red candle! But shouldn't we wait till the weekend before we judge? I feel it's just a chance for you guys to buy more who missed the 15K, 20K, 25K, 30K and waited for more dip. We were at 44K, which allows you to acquire a little more at 40K.

But hey, did you miss that again?
Some short-time traders cashed out, and I am glad you guys got a chance to buy at a little cheap.

nope. he forgot sideways   just saying

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I wanted to bring this up. It is on my difficulty thread.



So basically I remember JJG fucking around and saying there is no 4 year cycle (at least 2 years ago)

 When I look at the reward to fee next 3  ½ ings if miners keep force fees to stay at 30 stats

10 percent fee per block   now
18 percent fee per block   2024
31 percent fee per block.  2028
47 percent fee per block   2032


what does all of the above mean for supply shock?

say

6.95000  now
3.82500  2024
2.26250  2028
1.48125  2032


if fees flatten out at .7 btc per block. the ½ effect ends  by 2036 or sooner if fees go to a steady 1 btc  a block