Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 15124. (Read 26712362 times)

Hahahahaha

Either way.  I think that "we" get your overall point.




Actually I gave some general numbers regarding BTC's performance since October 2015 - however, the performance of my BTC portfolio is not as high as the numbers that I had given for a few reasons.  1) I used $250 as the average price per BTC at the beginning of the bubble; however, my average price per BTC at that time was a bit over $500 and 2) I made a few mistakes that caused my performance to be quite a bit lower than if those mistakes had not been made.

Nonetheless, even if my percentage numbers do not seem to be as good as yours, I still am feeling really good and really relatively--speaking gentleman-ish..


Perhaps, i have thought through some of this, "what would it take" scenarios, as compared with you?  Perhaps?

I was thinking that even if i were to paint the worst picture of my BTC related fuck-ups, my average price per BTC is still well below $1k per BTC.

And, let's say that BTC suffered from a very severe correction. Sure, anything is possible, and we have had nearly 90% corrections in the past, and even if some assume that 90% is not too likely, 70% is more likely. 

So, if this kind of major 90% price correction were to happen now, then that would put BTC prices in the $2k territory, and sure that would be bad, but if you have investment averages of less than $1k, then you are still at least 2x into profits, and perhaps you are even able to engage in some remedial and/or mitigating efforts too. 

Anyhow, I kind of believe that we are going up before we go down, so 90% corrections, if they happen, are going to end up at higher price points.... But let's see how this plays out.

Of course, if prices go below $1k, then a lot of us would become quite nervous, I am sure, and we would likely have to have some pretty serious shit, in order for any kind of below $1k scenario becomes reasonably likely to play out... even as a mere downspike.



We could be on a similar page there; however, even though I had considered bitcoin to be an investment with my spare money, it had overtaken my other traditional investments quite a long time ago (maybe when BTC prices went above $2k, the value of my BTC holdings become a very substantial proportion of my overall investments)

That kind of reminds me that amongst my most bullish projections was that bitcoin would surge past $1,200, and then go into the $3k to $5k territory, and then get stuck back down in the $1,200k to $3k arena..and then maybe have another break out.  However, as the bullish scenario played out, we saw several substantial corrections along the way and we also saw some decent fundamentals being resolved, including the seeming resilience of bitcoin against the August b-cash fork. 

Even though the b-cash clowns seem to be getting a bit more traction, now, the whole environment of August 2017 created BTC price performance that surpassed expectations, and seeming additional bullish indicators that provide ongoing and decent BTC buying support.






Well, no matter what it seems that we need to account for ongoing price corrections, and we do not want our expectations to become too pie in the sky



Well you are right about these things and even though I think that there is going to be decent probabilities of ongoing upwards price movements, the upwards price movements are not givens, that's for sure.




fair enough analogy.


Preach on.... preach on....

That's what we are here for, and to fight off the nutjob trolls, big blockers and corporate shills.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.27635171

That's too bad.  He definitely walked a bit more on the crazy-side of sane, but he had lots of really great insights.  I would have loved to have met him in person.

Please elaborate.

He was institutionalized due to bipolar before, IIRC. Now he's out of country so nobody's looking after him and he has by all likelihood relapsed into psychotic mania.

Stress and lifestyle caught up, family life imploded, lost his shit.  Not sure if he got a new white coat, or if he got away.  I hope he pulls it back together - a lot harder to do when you're older!

I think the SSS plan makes a lot of sense.  Sell around 10 - 15% per doubling, on average. 

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sss-a-sane-and-simple-bitcoin-savings-plan-345065

Whatever happened to Risto, BTW?

I would find that terrifying.  But you would do very well with the penny screamers.  It’s very different from trading BTC  and has required me to unlearn everything I know. 

I never sell all and always make up whatever I sell by trading altcoins. I was down to like 15% of my coins in October and made it all back.

If you sell on the way up, you won’t have anything left when BTC hits $1 million.  Don’t be that guy.

It still doesn't seem as absurd to me judging from the local market (Greece). Given that we still have in effect capital controls, you can't just wire a big amount abroad and buy BTC. So internal demand has to be met by internal supply - and this "closed system" over here kind of reveals more of the dynamics compared to an open/international system.

From what I saw, internal supply dried up sharply after prices went 8-10k+ - in a way mirroring your own sells. This means that most people sold a lot of BTC in sub-10k prices and then there was very little to sell from willing sellers... meanwhile willing buyers wanted a lot of BTC, even up to 20k and beyond (they were paying a premium) yet they couldn't find it.

On the international scene, you have similar situations with exchanges being unable to handle new customers, imposing buying quotas, etc. In a way, the market is being bottlenecked by tens of intentional or unintentional obstacles - but the money keeps piling up.

Bcash is down to 0.158.  They will get eroded on the next BTC pump, as early as this week.

I am currently 100% BTC on my BTC / USD account.  I will start selling down again as we hit $16k, to a low of 98% BTC.  Yes I am a hard bull because anyone not on the train when it leaves the station will be left behind.   Again.

I have Tether and Alts in my Alts account.  But that is firewalled from the BTC account and they don’t mix, other than taking profits in BTC which is a one way process. Those funds never come back to the Alts account.

Edit:  first sell at $15900 so no longer 100%....  

The problem from my perspective is that the weekend dip grossly underperformed. I was targeting buying back lower.  This is a strong bullish signal for the week ahead.

Oh..I know I should keep my mouth shut..

Cant help it..have all this extra "gas" lying around....

I have to comment on the elephant in the room...

Peter..is the reason your here and shilling so much of late is perhaps because BCH is going to be dethroned by Eth soon? Sell that trash man..you know your going to...just a matter of time.

I hope that you are not 100% BTC, again?

You may have to fix your strategy a bit, no, because it is not healthy to go 100% either direction, right?   Accordingly, it seems that you have to have to sell BTC on the way up and buy on the way down.  no?


I don't want you to feel like I am dogging you, but on a personal level, I am feeling a bit heavy on the BTC side, because when we went up to $19,000s, I was around 88% BTC, but my bullish inclinations caused me to be kind of on a BTC accumulation mission because I had been selling so much BTC all the way up from $9k-ish and even before that, ever since our mid September correction down to $2,970.    Anyhow, by the time we reached $19,666, there was a bit of a sense that we were going to continue going up and to break above $20k (or at least at the time there seemed to have been decent odds to break above $20k, which kind of seems absurd now, and like we really did need to have this "pause" period).


Our recent BTC price correction down to $11,060 and then some of the back and forth on price, including my own trades puts my current position at about 91.5% BTC.. yet there remains some queeziness within me regarding some of my more recent trades, like I may have played them a bit wrong - even though I feel like I am kind of in a decent proportional range, with maybe a slightly higher quantity of BTC than I had considered "safe" at these relatively high BTC prices.... .. but when I reflect further on the whole matter, we have had already some decent attempts at breaking below $10k and really it is seeming less and less likely to actually break below $10k without some really decent FUD - and I am not sure if the ongoing SPAM attack coupled with actual high fees and delayed transaction times is enough to keep this baby down.

Anyhow, I guess my point is that even I am feeling a little bit nervous about whether I am in a decent position, and maybe I do have a bit too much BTC, yet my allocation towards BTC seems to be a bit smaller than yours.... Therefore, you are more bullish than me or maybe just a BIGGER gambler?

Alex:  you can separate units of account and storage of value.  Just price in USD if you are worried about it.

I don’t know Zohar and so can’t comment on his leanings.  

Doesn’t stop his model from being wrong. There is no need to use BTC at the subchannel level.  You could have a Tether running at the subchannel level.  Makes all of his concerns irrelevant.

No..your not delusional..perhaps slightly acrobatic if your avatar is any indication.  /s


Lol..and I just realized I F'ed up the meme...think its supposed to be "Gentlemen"...


JJG...I feel the same way...while I am not going to step out the the local lambo dealer(this week)...life is indeed much less stressful than pre-btc. My hodling are down 2000% from the ATH....but I am still over 24k+% overall....there is that. 


It would take...well..im not sure what it would take really. I have been blessed with a good career and financial stability for many years, bitcoin has always been a hobby. But I am passionate about my hobby. I will of course be very disappointed if bitcoin does not perform as well as I think it will. That has a low order of probability imo tho. Bitcoin and the blockchain are such a disruptive paradigm shift that there is no stopping now. The genie is   out of the bottle. I like to equate it to what Henry Ford did for the automotive industry..he didnt invent the auto..he just streamlined building them and wallah the assembly line was born. Satoshi has done the same thing. He didnt invent money or ledgers..just streamlined the way they are integrated and used.

bleh..im preaching to the choir again 

The main issue in "100 transactions" is that if they are done over time, the price of BTC might have changed.

Let's say Valve/Steam allows LN channels for gamers. Valve wants to get paid in $$$. However, as long as the channel is open, the $$$ value is not fixed. They have a fixed BTC value instead. So if they have a channel open with the gamer for, say, 1 year, they have to speculate on BTC price going up or remaining relatively steady (which is not against the trend - just saying whether or not a company wants to do that).

So while LN channels are good for aggregating a lot of short-term transactions between two parties that operate in a trustless manner, they are not necessarily optimal for aggregating mid-to-long term transactions without a "USD-proxy" / a more centralized company that you open a channel with them instead, in order to lock USD profits from sales. Unless there are solutions I'm not aware of regarding the btc<=>fiat markets as long as the channel is open. Perhaps atomic swaps or sidechains will be more useful regarding faster clearing to USD.

Still, anything that can aggregate txs and make new possibilities emerge (that aren't even possible in a mid to high-fee microtx arena), while also reducing network requirements, will be nice.