Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 15759. (Read 26708384 times)

Also, the 24h volume is now greater than the total market cap of 1 year ago!  Yup, going vert!

The world wants this. Just relax into it

We are up 9.4% in 24 hours and I’m a party pooper !

Here is how I understand it:
Trade 1:
If the futures contract price is above the current BTC price (say future contract is $11000 vs actual BTC at $10000):
(1) Sell (short) the futures contract. $11000
(2) Buy actual BTC for a lower price than the futures contract settlement rate. $10000
(3) Wait until the futures contract settlement date to cash in the futures contract and sell the BTC you bought as part of this trade.

It's a risk free trade. No matter what happens, you have a $1000 USD profit minus trading fees and borrowing costs.
If BTC/USD drops to $9000, you will lose $1000 value on your BTC but your futures contract short will be worth $2000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD stays at $10000, your BTC is worth what you bought it for but your futures contract short is worth $1000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD goes to $11000 and the contract settlement rate is $11000, you make nothing on the contract but the BTC you bought for $10000 is worth $11000 so a net profit of $1000.
If BTC/USD goes up to $12000, your BTC will be worth $2000 more than you bought if for but you will lose $1000 on the futures contract short so a net profit of $1000.

Trade 2:
If the futures contract price is below the current BTC price (say future contract is $9000 vs actual BTC at $10000):
Reverse trade 1 above.

So, the prices should stay in sync assuming enough people arbitrage. Of course, traders know arbitrage will happen so prices should stay in sync even without it. The futures price will be an indicator traders will use.

The interesting part of either scenario is the limited supply of coins for sale and to borrow for shorting and the nearly unlimited supply of fiat in the world. Could get interesting.

I haven't been in this tread for years. Had to come back to see when we hit $10,000. We used to buy beers for eachother with bitcoins. I left $2 in one of my addresses, now worth $50! 1BeERMeLkrzbRRkWJ4cfehB6iKhPp6BX49

BEERME!

Wat's up with the HairyMac party pooper?

Let's say that we are springing up from a $7600 foundation from 10 days ago, and so we have about a 26% price rise in 10 days... that is not as toppie as you are seeming to make it out to be.

Yeah, sure at some point we are going to get a top, and sure we are in a kind of exponential upwards at the moment - but there seems to be  a kind of ambition to break through $10k, no?

So maybe we just barely break through $10k and get a correction and let the buy support catch up, or maybe we shoot another 20% to 40% past $10k and then experience a kind of violent correction from there.. but don't we gotta get to $10k first and I don't really see the toppie of a 26% increase in 10 days as being as overblown as you are making it out to be in your seemingly parade raining mood.   

Just bumped my buy orders up a bit.  Seems like with this much momentum it isn't going to result in a massive dump like many are thinking.  I could be wrong but... I'm in it long so, I prefer to get my buy orders filled rather than wait forever for BTC to drop down to $6k to get slightly more coin for my dollars.

There was a 50% chance. I took it.

Already happened. 9000 came and went. There was a distinct lack of memes, meme guys. The honey badger one was good.

That's how we know we're not even close to the top.

Gdax and BFX through $9700.  I am a hard bull but this is getting stupid.

It's funny how we are just casually chatting as if nothing historical was about to happen

9700 fell without much trouble. 9900 is the next major resistance line. full steam ahead. get the champagne ready.

That was no "lady"   

~21x to go until crypto > gold!

Total Crypto market: 0.3T+

Hairy just did......you even quoted them.....

Said nobody ever