Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1622. (Read 26713745 times)

As soon as the Democrats steal the next election.

Explanation
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^^^
Adding to AlcoHoDL‘s discussion

It’s not only us discussing $1M BTC this dude also thinks BTC can be  > $750K by 2026


https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1709886903338549499?s=46

Explanation
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I know you guys are trying to be funny, but surely there is a serious point here too.

I know that some people suggest that you can never have enough bitcoin, but that truly does not really seem to be true.

So let's say that in 2016/2017 your entry-level fuck you status is $1 million, and so by 2017, you had already accumulated 500 BTC, so when BTC price crosses over $2k, you already have reached your entry-level fuck you status based on then BTC prices, but  you are still worried about using spot price as any kind of indicator, but since BTC prices went all the way up to nearly $20k in 2017 and dropped back down to nearly $3k at its lowest in 2018, but you had already had gone from your entry-level fuck you status all the way up to 10x your entry-level fuck you status and at most dropped down to 1.5x your entry level fuck you status.

To me it seem that largely you can just be selling coins whenever you like, as long as you are kind of attempting to maintain some kind of a stash, so even if you shaved off 10 BTC at $10k in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, you still have 460 BTC, and let's say in March 2020 you become a bit jaded about how much you need for entry level fuck you status, so you move up your consideration of entry-level fuck you status from $1 million to $2 million, you still may well have continued to have been o.k. shaving off 10 BTC for each of the years of 2021, 2022 and 2023.. and maybe you shaved 10 for each of those years off at $20k.. .so then now you are down to 430BTC.. and do you think that you might need to start to be a bit more frugal.. even assuming that 10 BTC per year is not really very sustainable. so you start to feel that you need to reign yourself in a bit better....

I guess my point is that there are quantities of BTC that are enough, and you may well not feel any kind of regrets for selling some of them from time to time, and probably my example of selling is not the greatest.. but it still does seem to show that some people might be in positions in which they likely have enough BTC...

Even right now using the 200-week moving average as the value determination price for a $2million entry level fuck you status, our current price is largely at the 200-week moving average (at $28k), so we are seeing that there is ONLY a need for 71.42857143 BTC in order to be at entry-level fuck you status, so if you have more than that amount, then you should be able to shave them off at your own discretion while keeping in mind that you might want to be careful not to go below that amount, but our guy who has 430BC likely has quite a bit of enough of a cushion to feel comfortable shaving off 5-10 BTC or more per year for several years.. but maybe someone who ONLY has around 100 BTC might want to be more careful in terms of budgeting how many BTC to shave off each year or even each quarter or month depending on how frequently s/he is shaving off coins. and/or the extent to which s/he is trying to be strategic in regards to such BTC shavings.


Trading and/or maintaining your stash through selling and buying back is another kind of story.


I was with you all the way until the end, Mr.suevie, when you used that dumbass term cryptocurrency and then suggesting that you are using that term but you really mean BTC.. so why the fuck use that term?  why not just say BTC?  Are you trying to sound smarter? and more objective? or like you have identified a category that has meaning?  and you are so brave because you specified BTC as being the thrust of your point. 

To me, it does not seem necessary to use the term cryptocurrency unless you might be talking about shitcoins or including shitcoins into your discussion, including if you might be talking about bitcoin too.. but as long as you are mostly wanting to talk about bitcoin, then you probably should say bitcoin. .. but there might be some points in which you might say.. this includes shitcoins too.. are you  pumping them or denigrating them might be optional...so mentioning shitcoins still might be topical, even in a thread that has bitcoin as its topic.

fuck shitcoins.

Explanation
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Ah yes typical, take a great poll and argue about the options and their meanings. Since we are all torn trying to specualate on when the top is after a having cycle should we just go with a range as per OP?

In my own calculations, and forecasting I use the halving year as its the only constant cycle in cycle out. But then again my speculations dont need to be particular accurate based on time, +1/+2 years variances is ok. Gen Zoomer Outer here

I prefer Bitcoinwisdom. Full-flavored, rich and satisfying.

I guess that we are largely saying the same thing - especially since I was initially triggered with the same date being in each of the categories, and I had been considering them to each be 4 year periods too, so I had thought that you had intended them to be 4 year periods, as well, even though it can be a bit ambiguous if the same date overlaps in each of the categories.

I hate to have future expectations to be a lock-in based on what has happened in the past.. but it does seem to be a bit of an inconsistency to deviate from the past when there is no other model saying otherwise for the future - even though we might be able to anticipate that cycles are likely going to change somewhat in the future, but until they actually change, we don't really have any examples of them changing - yet...

So if we are talking about potential top prices for any cycle, the price dynamics of bitcoin has so far been very consistent based on calendar years, and it is so consistent that it is likely going to break.  We have so far ONLY had three tops and each of the tops are closer to 18 months after the halvening rather than 12 months after the halvening, so if historically you had been using 12 months in order to give you some kind of a rough guidance for BTC price peaks for the cycle, you would have been right around 6 months premature ejaculation for each of those three already happened cycles... In 2013, the cycle top was the beginning of December, and then in 2017 and in 2021, the cycle top was right around 17th of December for each of those two years.

Accordingly, even though we should not be wanting to lock ourselves into any timeframe that the peak should happen (like LFC likes to do and he has so far been right each time.. hahahahaha), it just seems way more straight forward to go towards the end of the calendar year for each of those future anticipated cycles (even though the halvening is also happening less than exactly 4 years too.. so has been moving to be sooner and sooner and sooner in the calendar year.. at least so far.... so therefore the end of the peak seems more logically to be the calendar year for each of those years (2025, 2029, 2033). Alternatively, if you don't want to do that, then you probably should specify the month that you would want to use for each of those years.. so that the categories are not overlapping.


And 2030 would either be earlier in that particular cycle or just that the 2026-2029 cycle would end up extending out further.. which I guess I don't have any problems with those ideas, and surely we are just kind of guessing anyhow.

The more I think about the matter, it just seems that $1 million might be one of those "don't stop here it is bat country" kinds of zones - like $100, $1,000, $10k and what $100k is likely going to be.. . at least the first pass through seems more likely to be a kind of "don't stop here it is bat country"... yet again caveats should be thrown out there.. because it is difficult to really know how dynamics are going to actually end up playing out.. and sometimes reversals do end up happening right in the middle of what should have had been pass through zones, and even though I talk about them a lot, I mostly don't change much substantively about my buy/sell orders in such zones - except a wee bit on the margins.. 

Explanation
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I agree with you because as repeated earlier the world situation was different everything was towards digital currency or coming towards, but now the situation is after the pandemic and due to various wars are different so in this scenario the previous iteration will never be the same, so it is better to think beyond 2033 and plan accordingly and be patient with an investment then of course we are Hopefully that is possible and before 2033 there will not be any change in the world because we will get the change earlier, but it will go to a worse situation because the ideas we are making before 2033 will be very difficult to fulfill.Speaking from my little knowledge.

Explanation
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Second halving was on 9th Jul 2016 and Bitcoin hit its ATH on 19th Dec 2017 i.e. 19k$. Almost 17 months after halving.

Third halving was on May 2020 and Bitcon hit its ATH on 10th Nov 2021 i.e. 69k$. Almost 18 months after halving.

Forth Halving in April 2024. So we must expect next ATH in Sep or Oct 2025 ??

 Mine's just okay this morning... I usually take my first coffee with Preev but we're out of Preev so I used ChartBuddy and it just doesn't taste the same.  Anybody know where I can get some Preev?

Explanation
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i think its more a "when will the dollar collapse to $1M per BTC" question

and my answer: after 2033

Current state of 2 frames and 2 bitcoiners in one photo.

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We’re still seeing 4 year cycles with the high around 12-18 months after the halving.



Obviously there’s no guarantee history repeats but we can only go with the information we have available right now. My estimate is we see $1,000,000 per coin in 2033 (a year after the 2032 halving) or in 2037 (a year after the 2036 halving).

I’m leaning towards it being 2037 at the moment but if we get a spot ETF soon & it takes us to, for example $300,000 or more in 2025 (a year after the 2024 halving) then I would say it’ll hit $1,000,000 before 2033. But as we are here with the info available now I predict $1,000,000 in 2037 so my poll answer is after 2033.

Explanation
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