Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 16285. (Read 26609760 times)

I have read a hundred times already, in this forum, that:

Bitcoin is down because of China news of banning criptocurrency, but it will go up again.
News of China banning bitcoin again reached weak hands, but it will recover.
Bitcoin down because China exchanges ban, but it is now up again.
China made bitcoin go down again.

What about adopting a parrot? We are all pirates, after all. This way we can save our fingers some effort.

 

wow, REALLY bumping this upper line

if this thing blows up imma be crying on my fiat winnings

Now there's an elliptic curve algorithm.

Potter ?
Yes, We Have This Stuff : https://vimeo.com/89479594

 Harry?

?

END list, good luck!

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What a load of waffle

I don't think so.  Even though I am describing more sophisticated and complicated strategies, I am not promoting them.

What I promote is a kind of dollar cost averaging approach and sensibility, not gambling.

If you spend some time accumulating bitcoin, with a sensible strategy, and don't buy beyond your means, then you are much more likely to get "rich" from bitcoin than if you are engaging in leverage or hedging and/or playing with money that you do not fucking have.

I am an older person, so I have had a large number of years of accumulating capital before I got into bitcoin; however, I accumulated my capital by dollar cost averaging over nearly 30 years by the time I got into bitcoin.  When I got into bitcoin, I spent about a year establishing my position, which was a goal to put approximately 10% of my quasi-liquid assets into bitcoin.

In other words, I am saying prepare yourself for the upside and for the downside and be reasonable, and if you are able to be reasonable, then you are more likely going to be able to ACCUMULATL and HODL through the tougher times (which are likely not going to go away any time soon).  

Yeah, you can assert that bitcoin is different and that I cannot relate to younger people, blah, blah, blah, but the truth of the matter is that I can relate, and even young people need to think in term of reason and incrementalism and having themselves protected in case we go into a bear market (even if we already are in a bear market - perhaps)... Anyhow, if you overplay your low capital hand, then your low capital hand has a higher chance of getting shook and fucked up by an overly emotional focus on getting rich quick, rather than being more measured, strategic and practical.

You don't want to place yourself into a position where you end up having to act emotionally, which is more likely when you are engaging in leverage rather than figuring out how to play within your resources and to build up your capital, even if it takes several years to accomplish.




Well, fuck, bitcoin is a whole hell of a lot more volatile than other assets, and likely to continue to be volatile, and that volatility is not guaranteed as going up in the short term... so I think that one of the main differences with bitcoin is that in the long term there seems to be a pretty decent chance that it is going up from the price point where we are at... however, that going up is not guaranteed, it is merely a decent probability of such, which makes BTC a great fucking investment as long as you do not get too greedy merely because it has ongoing and great upside potential.  In other words, you gotta prepare for both up and down without losing the perspective that long term chances of up are very decent (not guaranteed).




I am not sure about what conclusion(s) you are reaching here.

Currently, we seem to have a price range of about $3,400 to $4,300, so yeah, I understand that is a large price range, but my point is that we should not be getting too excited unless prices either go above or below that price range in terms of whether we are going up or down, so yeah, currently we are bouncing a bit in the higher end of the current price range with prices of the last day or so bouncing up from upper $3600s to lower to mid $3900s.

Certainly there remains decent potential that the news of the Chinese cracking down “exchange closing” will continue to cause some bitcoin (and crypto currency) disruption and possibly present a regulatory model for other countries, it is far from conclusive that demand for BTC is going to dry up because of these kinds of disruptions and/or regulatory attempts.

So, in the end, let’s keep our heads, and let’s not put too much weight on any one doom and gloom scenario, or even put too much weight upon the stacking of doom and gloom scenarios, including the decently likely upcoming segwit2x hardfork, that will likely end in a similar kind of failure as the Bcash hardfork (even while threatening to one-upmanship the attack on bitcoin by planning for lack of replay and/or wipeout protections).

We cannot completely ignore the various ongoing attacks on bitcoin or even the attempts to describe them as “worse than ever before,” yet through the years, bitcoin has become stronger and stronger in spite of these kinds of attacks, so on a personal level we can continue to prepare ourselves mentally and financially for up or down (or sideways for that matter), but don’t become so delusional as to allow FUD spreading to shake you from what should be a strategy to buy and accumulate BTC.

Of course, any buy and accumulation strategy is going to be different for those folks who have already been in BTC for a while as compared with folks who are just entering BTC or considering an entrance into BTC.

Let me just repeat that there is no need to get excited until we get a price break either above or below $3400 to $4300 (of course I could be a bit off, but that is my assessment at the moment and based on some of our settling down in the past week or so)..

I will repeat from my assertion from an earlier post, there is no real indication that we are no longer in a bull market, therefore, there seems to be a slightly better chance that any price break outside of the current range would be upwards rather than downwards – however, we frequently know that there are fake outs and there are additional corrections that happen in spite of expectations, so there is nothing certain in bitcoinlandia, so we could have one more correction attempt and attempt to push us below the previous bottom of $2,972 and even down to $2,500.  So no matter your status in bitcoin (newbie or long-time accumulator), you should be mentally and/or financially prepared for either price direction.

The idea that bitcoin could have an average price with a beginning and an end, sounds like science fiction. To be honest I think someone will try to collect bitcoin and hodle it for eternity like stamps or collecting old coins in a vintage handcrafted album. The idea of having bitcoin devalued, would pertain two scenarios: a) extinction of the human race; b) something better will come up and will make people hodling bitcoin even more wealthy than they already are. .. I would say "b)" would be the obvious choice!  

The "Sophisticated" or "Complicated" strategies are, as you rightfully promote, are the best for whoever has only a modest capital available. Only, it is a damned hard thing to master with BTC. (I am not going to compare to some experiences with the female homo sapiens sapiens).

As for the TA part, I hope we will escape the "Hokusai" cliff that the WS casino players are surfing now right on the top of it.

"Gaussian curve projection",  what a bell end

GiiGii... please... don't bother with trolls.

They feel they are left out, left behind, abandoned like kittens! The best solution is to put them in a bag and throw them in a deep river!

provide link and or explanation, please.

Well, maybe we can clarify that the most basic strategy is HODL BTC.  However, in order to get to the point of HODL, you have to BUYDL and ACCUMULATL.   

The next more sophisticated strategy is to immediately (or near immediately) BUYDL back any coins that you SODL.

A more complicated strategy is to SODL small amounts of BTC as the prices go up, so in essence, you are never really selling your principle, but only the accumulation in value (and profits), and when the price dips (which it inevitably will in this ongoing volatile market), use a portion of those profits to BUYDL back, so you are offsetting some of the downside volatility and accumulating more coins.

One of the difficulties with attempting to follow more sophisitcated strategies is that guys get greedy and they sell too much or they start to think that they are smart and they can short in order to accumulate more BTC... DUMB!!!!!! and DANGEROUS!!!!!

So, I guess my point is to stick to BUYDL, ACCUMULATL, and HODL, until you really get used to those basics before you attempt to proceed to the more advanced strategies - and probably, it would be safe to completely abstain from shorting or other gambling type strategies, at least until you have really solidified your approach and your understanding of basic concepts of BUYDL and HODL.

I believe BTC price will follow a Gaussian curve projection.  At least till the end of this year.

Ironic, but true.


Let's start a new FUD point, which previously has been referred to in the critiques of BTC hoarding.


Here it is:

 "Bitcoin encourages idleness."   

Is it available to the general public already? Was planning to order it some time ago but it was out of stock. They do backorders?

After all these years, I just learned that. HODL, never sell. The only action allowed is accumulate (preferably when price is weak).

But I will become more active again when my TenX card arrives. I am going to add my small contribution to the growing pool of people that actually spend cryptocurrencies in day-to-day life. Holding in crypto, spending as fiat, seamlessly.

I do appreciate that you have consistently been engaged in a level of bitcoin assessment that incorporates technical analysis, so in that regard, I cannot really accuse you of such inconsistency as losing (or selling) your BCT account; however, your recent level of extreme seems to either be talking your book (while asserting that you are not) or just pure fantasy doom and gloom.

If you are saying:  "some people are saying $200, but I don't really believe it," then that is one thing, yet it seems that you are saying:  "some people are saying $200, yet even though I don't really believe it, surely such a thing is quite realistic, if you really think about it."

I think that you are just way the fuck out there with such prognosis.

Yeah, of course, anything is possible, and sure, of course, bitcoin has gone through extreme upside growth; however, if you compare this particular growth cycle from $250 to $4980, as compared with the two cycles in 2013 that brought us from $15 to $1163, they are quite different, and this particular time around has been much more gradual in terms of percentage and in terms of slope... .. so yeah, it is possible that we could go from $3900 to $7k and then have a BIG fucking correction, but it is nearly a snowball's chance in hell that we are going down to $200, and it would be quite the stretch to bring us below $1500, even though it is quite possible that we could have some spikes below into the three digits, maybe as low as $900..

but really, what the fuck does it even matter... right now we are $3900, and we continue to have upwards price pressures and you are kind of conceding that there are decent chances of UP before DOWN, so therefore, what the fuck we focusing on DOWN, when it seems pretty decent to achieve UP, first?

In any event, there is no exact road map for where we are going to go, how far we are going to go and how long it is going to take to get there.  Sure we can concede that there are cycles and waves and all of that, but it makes little sense to be harping on only one side of the ledger (especially the negative side of the ledger in this kind of thread that attempts to teach us about bitcoin and to learn about two of the better BTC-related strategies: 1) accumulate and 2) HODL)