Explanation
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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1629. (Read 26713915 times)
October 03, 2023, 12:04:48 AM
October 02, 2023, 11:43:42 PM
they will play this bearish sideways game until no one expects an uptrend anymore.. then boom into disbelief phase
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic. This feels so 2015 (OCT went up 33%) I think the miner relief rally happens this month just like it did in 2015.(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...
or maybe not
Probably not.
BTC price gives no shits about miners... and miners have to figure out if they are going to mine or not mine.. that is the question, even if some of them might end up getting reckt along the way.. which for sure is part of the process and there is no dire problem that is even close to anything that you seem to be inferring as problematic..and maybe the BTC price will go up and maybe it won't.. doesn't really matter too much in the whole scheme of things.
By the way, there mere fact that there might be a lot of miners driving up the hashrate and therefore driving themselves into needing prices to go up is likely a product of their own making.. and sure, let them get reckt if they have not configured their operations in such a way to protect their lil selfies.. and furthermore, if you ever heard of the difficulty adjustment. we could lose 90% of the miners and probably still be o.k... even if there could be some dire scenarios that anyone might point out, I have my doubts that the difficulty adjustment is not going to take care of any fluctuation that might have to happen to hashpower if it happens that the BTC price does not end up going up as fast as some of the miners may have had been betting (speculating)...
[edited out]
[edited out... current mining cost calculations]this is like t/a. but based on mining numbers. it is a bit more accurate then t/a as it is less subject to interpretation.
but in 2019 to 2020 it did not happen so i toss it due to covid .
i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.
Even if your various numbers are correct, it's a BIG so fucking what in terms of what the BTC price is going to do. Miners have to react to price, not the other way around.
Which also does not mean that the BTC price won't go up to $1million or whatver in this cycle or even in the coming year or so, but BTC's price's going up or down is not based on how much hash power has been put into it.
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.
Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.
Or November, December-same thing, probably.
$40-45K for halving sounds like a very reasonable price.
Even though the miners would not be very profitable at those numbers post halving, they could still withhold selling mined bitcoin for a few months while causing more appreciation in the interim.
They were doing this around each halving, imho.
High provability that we can see big movements this coming November, to many people will start to save their bitcoin since they speculate to earn huge for this upcoming halving.
Also for sure miners will hold their mined bitcoins since most of them know the situation and they could earn more compare is they sell some early or some good changes happen in the market.
$40k-$50k sounds fair and reachable but for sure all want to see a new ATH recorded at that event.
There still is no guarantee price will go up and sometimes it takes several months after the halvening for the actual effects of the physical reduction of BTC new supply is uncontrollably felt and no longer able to keep such bad boy down.
Sure, there is also a chance that new ATH's are reached on or before the halvening and even higher than Adam Back's prediction price (of $100k). The odds are probably not high for that kind of scenario, but king daddy likely gives few shits about odds... when it sometimes might get stubborn about doing what it wants to do.
October 02, 2023, 11:32:21 PM
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.
Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?$40-45K for halving sounds like a very reasonable price.
Even though the miners would not be very profitable at those numbers post halving, they could still withhold selling mined bitcoin for a few months while causing more appreciation in the interim.
They were doing this around each halving, imho.
Also for sure miners will hold their mined bitcoins since most of them know the situation and they could earn more compare is they sell some early or some good changes happen in the market.
$40k-$50k sounds fair and reachable but for sure all want to see a new ATH recorded at that event.
October 02, 2023, 11:07:45 PM
October 02, 2023, 11:01:15 PM
October 02, 2023, 10:04:53 PM
October 02, 2023, 09:03:23 PM
October 02, 2023, 09:00:45 PM
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.
Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.
Or November, December-same thing, probably.
$40-45K for halving sounds like a very reasonable price.
Even though the miners would not be very profitable at those numbers post halving, they could still withhold selling mined bitcoin for a few months while causing more appreciation in the interim.
They were doing this around each halving, imho.
High provability that we can see big movements this coming November, to many people will start to save their bitcoin since they speculate to earn huge for this upcoming halving.
Also for sure miners will hold their mined bitcoins since most of them know the situation and they could earn more compare is they sell some early or some good changes happen in the market.
$40k-$50k sounds fair and reachable but for sure all want to see a new ATH recorded at that event.
October 02, 2023, 08:42:14 PM
October 02, 2023, 08:38:29 PM
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.
Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.
Or November, December-same thing, probably.
$40-45K for halving sounds like a very reasonable price.
Even though the miners would not be very profitable at those numbers post halving, they could still withhold selling mined bitcoin for a few months while causing more appreciation in the interim.
They were doing this around each halving, imho.
October 02, 2023, 08:04:49 PM
October 02, 2023, 07:27:55 PM
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.
Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?If the current difficulty stands in April miners need 40 to 50 k price .
the top of the line s21 does 200 th and burns 3.5 kwatts
so 200 x 0.061 = 12.20 usd earned daily
3.5 kwatts is 80 kwatts a day . 4 cent power means $3.20 cost
So the miner is fine except that he just paid about 4000 to get the machine this month.
at the ½ ing that machine earns 6.10 and burns $3.20. so if he managed to have all top of the line gear right now he has to buy all new machines which are not in stock.
He could get all s19xp for 3200 right now.
they earn 8.40 a day and burn 3.20
at ½ ing they earn 4.2 a day and burn 3.20 very border line.
In both cases top of the line gear that is costly is needed now as I type.
standard gear is s19j pro
earns 6.40 burns 3.20 okay now
at ½ ing
earns 3.20 burns 3.2 no good for the almost any miner
Since most gear is 100th at 3.2k watts maybe 250-300eh at current price it will lose for almost every miner in the world.
the long term power cost for profit needed has been six cent power.
i am using 4 cent numbers so I am extra conservative.
basically if we hit the ½ ing at 27-32k and stay there for two months it will be a first.
it is why I look more at 2015 to 2016 mining relief rally to be done from 2023 to 2024.
which means 40-50k in march/ april 2024
this is like t/a. but based on mining numbers. it is a bit more accurate then t/a as it is less subject to interpretation.
but in 2019 to 2020 it did not happen so i toss it due to covid .
i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.
October 02, 2023, 07:06:10 PM
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.
Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable? October 02, 2023, 07:03:25 PM
October 02, 2023, 07:03:22 PM
buddy blast
October 02, 2023, 06:47:17 PM
After seeing that 1k jump in a matter of few minutes.
I did have the impression something like this and expecting something in the morning. lol
October 02, 2023, 06:05:36 PM
they will play this bearish sideways game until no one expects an uptrend anymore.. then boom into disbelief phase
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...
As the halving gets close the psychological pressure continues to increase.
There's still a group of "what if" people and it's the same group that usually goes FOMO. The people who are like rubber bands that keep on delaying the decision until they can't stand it anymore. The type of people who save up and never do any shopping for a year and then go YOLO and get all the things they wanted throughout the year at one go. I'm sure you know someone like that.
Just another normal reaction where they just join the hype by word when its early but can't take good decision when there's opportunity and get FOMO when everything start that's why those people lose since they miss certain good positions to ride on.
I see lot of people doing this and for sure there's still a lot of people like this will exist on this upcoming halving so for sure they regret their decision for not accumulating and only get chunks when bull run happen.
October 02, 2023, 06:02:35 PM
Why you little...
October 02, 2023, 06:01:15 PM
October 02, 2023, 05:09:19 PM
they will play this bearish sideways game until no one expects an uptrend anymore.. then boom into disbelief phase
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...
The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic. This feels so 2015 (OCT went up 33%) I think the miner relief rally happens this month just like it did in 2015.
or maybe not
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