Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1630. (Read 26714004 times)

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

If the current difficulty stands in April miners need 40 to 50 k price .

the top of the line s21 does 200 th  and burns 3.5 kwatts

so 200 x 0.061 = 12.20 usd earned daily

3.5 kwatts is 80 kwatts a day  . 4 cent power means $3.20 cost

So the miner is fine except that he just paid about 4000 to get the machine this month.

at the ½ ing that machine earns 6.10 and burns $3.20.  so if he managed to have all top of the line gear right now he has to buy all new machines which are not in stock.

He could get all s19xp for 3200 right now.

they earn 8.40 a day and burn  3.20

at ½ ing they earn 4.2 a day and burn 3.20 very border line.

In both cases top of the line gear that is costly is needed now as I type.

standard gear is s19j pro

earns 6.40 burns 3.20 okay now
at ½ ing

earns 3.20 burns 3.2 no good for the almost any miner

Since most gear is 100th at 3.2k watts maybe 250-300eh at current price it will lose for almost every miner in the world.

the long term power cost for profit needed has been  six cent power.

i am using 4 cent numbers so I am extra conservative.

basically if we hit the ½ ing at 27-32k and stay there for two months it will be a first.

it is why I look more at 2015 to 2016 mining relief rally to be done from 2023 to 2024.

which means 40-50k in march/ april 2024



this is like t/a. but based on mining numbers.  it is a bit more accurate then t/a as it is less subject to interpretation.


but in 2019 to 2020 it did not happen so i toss it due to covid .


i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.

Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

buddy blast

After seeing that 1k jump in a matter of few minutes.
I did have the impression something like this and expecting something in the morning. lol

Just another normal reaction where they just join the hype by word when its early but can't take good decision when there's opportunity and get FOMO when everything start that's why those people lose since they miss certain good positions to ride on.

I see lot of people doing this and for sure there's still a lot of people like this will exist on this upcoming halving so for sure they regret their decision for not accumulating and only get chunks when bull run happen.

Why you little...

Explanation
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The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.  This feels so 2015 (OCT went up 33%) I think the miner relief rally happens this month just like it did in 2015.

or maybe not

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Light emanating from the cosmic web that connects galaxies has been seen for the 1st time.

Sure.... the more BTC that you have then you will likely be better off, but at the same time, you are right to suggest that it is is NOT a good idea to panic, and you need to go at your own pace in regards to your ongoing BTC accumulation, even if it might end up being at a lower BTC amount during the periods in which the BTC price is going up... yet at the same time, those of us who are into bitcoin and accumulating at these levels (and even if brand new to bitcoin), we are likely way ahead of those who might think that they know about bitcoin but for whatever reason(s) have failed and refused to act in order to stack it.. (even though they are able to do so if they were to merely just take some action).. so ongoing wealth transfer and  there are likely going to be people who are really struggling to get a hold of anything close to a million satoshis when right now a million satoshis can be gotten for less than $300.


Just the other day, I used the example of even if the guy who started stacking $100 per week worth of BTC three years ago and got around 0.58 BTC for right around $15,700, is barely at the same place as the guy who could buy the same amount of BTC today for just under $28k.

The guy who started 3 years ago is likely in a much better place to having had already stacked those BTC over the past 3 years at a regular and consistent pace including likely making some curbing of his consumption practices, versus the presumptively financially equivalent guy who might think that he is going to be able to just lump sum into BTC (even assuming that he could actually get his hands on $15,700 to be able to buy BTC right now or to maybe get a bit of a dip or maybe try to figure out how he might want to maximize the quantity of BTC that he is able to be assuredly get with the $15,700 that he presumably has been able to save, if he were to have had even been able to save it up for the past 3 years).

Even someone who is attempting to be somewhat aggressive in his BTC accumulation by investing $100 per week in to bitcoin for three years, may still not otherwise be able to put that quantity of $15,700 together, and that is why it makes so much more sense on a practical level to be regularly attempting to get a bit of BTC (whether aggressively or not) rather than sitting on your hands or even saving up for it and holding those dollars and waiting for a dip hardly seems to be a very active approach, even though in November 2022, $15,700 could have (hypothetically) gotten the same level of economic equivalent guy a whole BTC (but he might have ONLY been able to buy a bit more than $10k at that time, if there is a presumption that he is setting aside $100 per week that is supposed to go to bitcoin - at some point), but we might realize that it would have been difficult for many normies to buy BTC  when it is dipping down in the $15ks, and thinking that it might go lower, in that kind of way in November 2022 for most normal people.. even assuming that they might have been able to have a bit more than $10k saved up at that time under the saving (setting aside of) $100 per week scenario..

https://bitcoinist.com/satoshi-nakamotos-secret-email-emerges/

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Some bullish tweets for you guys.

The good times are getting closer.



@MitchellHODL
After the 2020 halving, daily sell pressure on #Bitcoin  dropped by ~$10,000,000.

Following the 2024 halving, the reduction in daily sell pressure is estimated to be ~$15,000,000.

This WILL effect the price.

And the fact that so many people seem to think it won't is actually more evidence towards the fact that the halving is not priced in.

Not to mention all of the demand catalysts that are looming as well...

https://x.com/mitchellhodl/status/1708868689578033175


@cryptojellen
Once #Bitcoin  breaks $30k, the real bull market starts.

I'm ready. Are you?

https://x.com/cryptojellenl/status/1708852416009896147


@mistercrypto
Most people are not even aware of the massive #Bitcoin  breakout that is right around the corner...

https://x.com/misterrcrypto/status/1708894613623247206


@mistercrypto
I believe the Spot Bitcoin ETFs will already be accepted by THIS YEAR.

https://x.com/misterrcrypto/status/1708903924663521451

As the halving gets close the psychological pressure continues to increase.

There's still a group of "what if" people and it's the same group that usually goes FOMO. The people who are like rubber bands that keep on delaying the decision until they can't stand it anymore. The type of people who save up and never do any shopping for a year and then go YOLO and get all the things they wanted throughout the year at one go. I'm sure you know someone like that.

So these "what ifers" are waiting with their money because what if there's a black swan again like in 2020? The closer we get to the halving the less likely this scenario will be and they will finally abandon the thought and get their hands on some bits but that's going to be 40k bits, not 10k like they hoped for.

Gold folks and gold are relics.. like dinausours.. but still kind of interesting in their own right..

Surely, one thing about bitcoin is that it is around 1,000x better than gold, and I hope that I am not understating the comparison.. so surely if you can appreciate aspects of money, especially the verifiability and the ease of transport and the ability to self-claim it without too many costs, except maybe some technical learning that does continue to change.. but here are still quite a few ways to secure your bitcoin without too much reliance on others..

How many dollars worth of bitcoin do you have? 

$100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

$100,000,000

$10,000,000,000

or some other amount..

So, you can see how the amount might affect the way that you choose to store your bitcoin, but even if you have the higher amounts, there are ways that you can secure that on your own.. and some of them more secure than others, but could you even imagine having more than $1 million in gold, and trying to secure it on your own.. and then when it comes to transporting it or even verifying it.. you might be kind of fucked in terms of how much attention you end up drawing to yourself and your stash. 

Should I even attempt to make the comparison to bitcoin, when many of us already have a lot of ideas regarding how even the larger amounts of bitcoin that I listed above could be self-stored, and surely there are likely some better practices regarding how to manage that much value, but there could be ways to actually transport and/or to store such value without much help from anyone else or without anyone really knowing about it.. or being able to stop you before hand.. probably there would be some blockchain analysis attempts at figuring you out if you hold too much of it in one spot.. but there still are likely ways to obfuscate those matters... .

But are any of us dealing with those kinds of higher amounts?  I would expect that there quite a few of us (not saying whether I am really part of the club) dealing with $100k and higher values, and many of us have probably honed some of our practices and ways of dealing with increasing values over the years.. so for example, even the bitcoiner from 2015 might have accumulated 21 BTC for anywhere between $6k and $20k, but no matter what his/her basis in the cost, if s/he had been able to continue to hold onto the 21 BTC, then today's value is more than $500k.. and there could be questions regarding how much to keep in one place.. whether they are in 1 BTC chunks are maybe even in 0.1 BTC chunks.  there are a variety of ways to manage those holdings and perhaps some of them are more cold storage and some might be on chain and portable or held on exchanges and some might be on the lightning network or even other ways of holding coins that may or may not involve any third parties.. and surely sometimes we do need to be a bit weary of third parties having too many of our coins, but there might be some utility in terms of dealing with third parties, too.


Also, it is difficult to argue that bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch for the past 10 years or more, and there is no real sign that bitcoin will not continue to eat gold's lunch in the coming years.. which is likely going to end up playing out in ways in which bitcoin's 1,000x more valuable attributes as compared to gold ends up playing out in the market, even though currently bitcoin is around 1/20th the price of gold in terms of market cap^**.. so sucks to be you if you allocate more than a few percentages to gold as compared to your bitcoin allocation.

**Admittedly it could take 100 to 200 years for the market to better reflect the relative values of bitcoin and gold, but still the mere fact that it could take a while to work out does not likely justify holding very much, if any, of the inferior asset.


Yeah right.   

I been reading about that since early 2009..

whoops


Yes.. it is a trap.

You better get some in case it catches on..

Otherwise you will trapped because you either don't have any or you do not have enough.. (other ways of saying no coiner or low coiner)

One of the best ways of dealing with bitcoin is to just get the fuck started... even if you are whimpy about it and you are only willing to buy $10 per week when you have a budget that would easily allow you to buy $100 to $300 per week, but you still choose $10 per week you will still likely be better off rather than whining about traps that may or may not exist.


In udder wurds:


Is the trap in the room with us now?

they will play this bearish sideways game until no one expects an uptrend anymore.. then boom into disbelief phase
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...