Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 16291. (Read 26609885 times)

No no. You didn't understand.

I won't sell mate

indeed. Which is why it'll possibly bottom out much higher this time - say $800-$1200. That would be superb, not have to go all the way back to $183 like the Elliot Wave guy says we are.

toknormal but then Bitcoin wasn't so widespread and didn't had so big amount of holders  

Toknormal have you sold all your coins and going to buy back at $200? Or are you going to wait until after 5k before selling all?

I have been out of the loop for a week or two and I see peeps feeling rather pessimistic about BTCs future short term value.
Any fundamental reasons for this outlook or is it all just built on TA?
I know that China has recently (couple of weeks back) banned bitcoin (Again), anything else I missed?

People in Jan 2014 when price dipped from $1200 to $800:

"$600-$700 at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them  "

Subsequent final bottom: $183

$1500-$1600 on mid-October at most. And I mean the WORST case scenario. If it falls more than that then I'll buy all of them 

Reminds of that scam, where you pick a horse race each week and you send an email predicting different winners to 10000's of people.
A week later, you create a new email list containing just the people you randomly sent the winner too.
You repeat the process until after several weeks you are left with just a few people, but for those people, you have correctly predicted the winning horse for several weeks in a row.

Your horse picking skills are probably well respected by these people, and you can use this as the basis for any number of confidence tricks.

It's the same with lots of these people picking the future direction of stocks & Bitcoin, given enough people picking outcomes, you are sure to get a few who have correctly picked the price movement several times, no doubt they have a plausible reason, but underneath, it's just chance.

Not everyone is in this for the money though.  Just like a hobby, if it helps you make money along the way, then great, but if not, so be it.

For me, if the experiment fails and bitcoin goes to zero, then so be it.  But if it succeeds, then you won't even have to think in fiat term.  
Just like now, I think purely in crypto terms, i.e. crossrate like ETH/BTC, LTC/BTC, and how much investment people made in that ICO in ETH terms.  You stop thinking about how much money you made in fiat terms, because that can be purely due to fiat failing big time, rather than crypto making gains.  

Lot of ifs

IMO the market is more liquid now than in the past- and I expect it to become more so... it is not as easy for the market to be pushed around at these levels..as it was 3-4 years ago, it has matured in many ways including somewhat the participants.  

I do not discount a black swan event though - I guess it would not be too surprising- It appeals to the pessimist in me... but it would have to be really huge event- to justify a move which would take the market cap down from $116 billion (BTC@$7000) to around $3.3 billion (BTC @$200) which would be a drop of $112ish billion- that would have to be a dump of millions and millions of coins and a total lack of demand...  and then after that a $443 billion rally up to to $447 billion (BTC@ $27,000)

The world, or at the very least the crypto world would have to be on fire.

Most external events of such a catastrophic nature would lead to BTC price increase - war, financial collapse, massive terror attack etc though financial collapse could potentially cause the crash and super recovery

Internal ones- catastrophic bug, vulnerability , regulation - I suppose a bug could cause crash and then the fix once in place the recovery (but $27k after a bug that drained price to $130 hmmmm)


Not saying we wont have volatility -but these numbers would be next level nutty IMO


(ps no I do not think the HF was catastrophic in the slightest- farcical but not catastrophic)

I'm not predicting "the end of bitcoin". I'm simply predicting the usual retrace in proportion to the massive gain of the last major spike. It's gone from $400 to $4000 in 12 months. The retest of the last high is yet to come. That would be around $800-$1200.

Bitcoin defies all the current "logic" of stock markets.

I've saw dozens of analysis and most of them failed.

That's because stocks are based purely on trading, whereas bitcoin is based on a creed - the creed of hodling.

Every bankster has predicted the end of bitcoin as well. And they "know" about money

Every Elliot Wave analyst I've seen has predicted a retest at least back to $500.

We could, for example have a gradual decline back to $1800. Then a spike down to the 'retest' zones and then stabilisation.

When most people get involved in Bitcoin and they have a huge amount of energy and enthusiasm for it. Problem is, there is little you can direct that energy towards.
For most, it ends up as trading, trolling, scamming, mining or a similar pursuit that doesn't really promote or contribute much to Bitcoin, we just feed off other people's efforts. I really wish we could harness the energy into something that was more constructive.

LSD everywhere!! 

Indeed. Expect just such an event.

Funny thing chart watching. The right "event" always seems to turn up at the right time to justify the technicals.

The reason for that is that people cherrypick retrospectively which "event" was a significant market driver. For example in 2013/14 if the price had carried on up through 1200 and continued throughought 2014 towards 4-5k, then the January 2014 China "banning" and the Gox fiasco would have been seen as minor corrections. But since the market traced back 90% of its gains eventually, those came to be seen as 'catastrophic'.

There are events like that going on all the time. We just had a contentious hardfork - you don't think that qualifies as 'catastrophic' ? The market will tank at some point and then a patsy will be found to justify it.

If the market swings to $7000 and then down to $130-$500 then ........ it would be a laughing stock.

What would you suppose would then spur the move from $130-$500 to  $27,000 after that? just pure gambling?

Personally I think such a move would most likely be the death of BTC if not put it into a coma for a considerable amount of time.... from which it would awake potentially irrelevant

I cannot see it - the motivation to sell at those levels would be low- considering the support levels put  in over the years.

In the recent  30% +/- dip the market held above $2800 and there has been considerable volume- I cannot see the market capitulating to that extent ($130-$500) from $7000 barring a near catastrophic event of some type which acts as a catalyst- a event severe enough that causes holders to drop their bags en masse -  an event that causes both the dumping of many coins onto exchanges (I'm talking people/companies moving coins out of cold storage onto exchanges to dump) but also an event that kills demand. The markets are not as thin or illiquid as they once were - though still comparatively so, but it would take a true mass volume dump of of coins to drag the price down 98% to take us from $7000 down to $130 or even 90% ish for $350 -$500 and then an extraordinary event to  ramp the price to $27,000 - like the cryptospace/world would have to be burning in someway for these events to play out (cannot rule it out I guess) Markets can be irrational for sure.. but wow... $200 dollars... I just cannot see it... I would be surprised I do not mind admitting.

Well, let me rephrase and say, I would be pleasantly surprised. People over use the term "cheap coins", but $200 bitcoins would be quite nostalgic!