There are indeed rumours of LN activating (market begun pricing this in)
There are also rumours that BTC is going to be worth more in 2 years time than it is now....
Funny thing "value" and "worth" and"price"
Funny thing indeed.
There already is an actual demand for BTC imo - there will be a greater demand -no doubt the price will over shoot -and correct - many times- markets do what markets do - then ratchet up to new levels
I don't discount another retest of recent lows...nor the highs.
Currently still undervalued IMO
Undervalued compared to what. Sure I can say that BTC should be worth 1 million$ given how half of the world could use it in the future, but that is not how markets work.
Markets work on potential demand, potential as in it is likely that it will happen, not just some fantasy of some greedy traders. Many people say that BTC will have global dominance and replace the USD as reserve currency. I think those goals are foolish to consider, at least in the reasonable future anyway.
So those things are not priced into the market if we assume that most market participants are rational in the long term ,but not in the short.
What should be priced in is the irrational imaginations of nearby effects. And we just had that, either the China FUD will cause irrational panic, or the recent Segwit irrational hype is about to pop.
Either way, I see BTC going south.Did not mention replacing the USD reserve anytime soon -nor any greedy fantasy.
I believe in market cycles and hype cycles... and I do have a pretty good idea how markets and supply and demand work btw mate
) (and potential demand is a factor- but its not how markets work solely per se latent and effective demand both do play a role, sometimes rationally and sometimes not, sometimes there is equilibrium and sometimes its out of kilter - demand is affected by many internal and external factors including but not exclusively supply, sentiment, milestones, external market forces, competition, hype cycles,
regulatory clarity and.....
market accessibility etc etc)
I already said we could retest recent lows.. and highs and nor was I surprised when we had the recent 30% + drop - not one bit.... and I have said on many occasion I expected volatility.
I won't be surprised either when larger significant sums flow into the market (and ecosystem)over the next year/eighteen months either
(I have my reasons) which will have an effect on said s&d...
I still think overall price is out of kilter atm- as the next year to eighteen months will show - I have little doubt.
I just don't see an extended bear market- I think BTC price is undervalued for where the ecosystem is at - though the market is the market and the current price is the current price ...for now.... time will tell.
Enjoy the volatility