As the price always goes opposite direction it seems to be reasonable, it can only go DOWN from here:
1. BTC-e + SEC + BCC + segwit activation drama = obvious massive crash (yesterday news)
2. Since crash didn't happen, now people are like: Jezzz!!! This is super bullish! 1st August to the moon!
3. Since 1st of August will not moon, and probably new info from BTC-e may suggest there are 66k coins ready to dump somewhere = supercrash.
I hope I am wrong.
I wouldn't worry too much about those 66k because either:
- They are already confiscated.
- They are controlled by other BTC-e owners
In first case it will take years before those coins get auctioned. It is also probable another lawsuit from Mtgox claiming those coins.
In second case, either BTC-e reopens or they guy just hand it over to authorities. At this moment, other participants of BTC-e must be scared as hell. I don't think they will do anything with the coins in some long time if ever, plus those coins are being heavily monitored and it won't be easy to try convert them to fiat without incurring in very high risks.
About your point 1... it is you who thought that would mean a price crash... For me it was somewhat bullish/neutral: There have been almost no drama in the segwit activation process, in fact it is going smoothly and with 100% consensus. BCC, meh. And it is not that bad that regulators are starting to enforce the regulation that was theoretically in place since a few years now.
Also, you are assuming 1 Aug will not moon. I don't expect it to moon either. I expect it to start rising and breaking ATH a few days later. For moon, you will have to wait for october/november.
I don't have a crystal ball, but besides the drama Bitcoin is in a better position now than it has ever been.