Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 1734. (Read 26717053 times)

buddy you are now tripped .

but I am sure you will get your trips this morning.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

This is the percentage of IHSG/ Indonesian Stock all combined

Bitcoin can surpass it 

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

You're correct. It's easy to look into the past and come up with schemes that would have made you a lot of money, the question is whether they will continue to make you money going forward. Even PlanB poses the proposition as a question. As well with what you say, DCA may not be optimal but that doesn't mean it isn't the best, depending on what criteria you judge it on. Not that I'm saying it is the best (a hybrid approach is probably preferable for most people), just people should be wary about 'make money fast' schemes. They often contain elements that will leave you without a shirt if things go wrong.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

DCAing when it is going down seems to be a great time to be DCA'ing, even though it could take a while to get back into profits... so yeah peeps can vary in terms of how they see these kinds of situations and which strategies might work better, even though many times, it is not easy to really know if the price has yet reached its bottom, but sometimes it does become more apparent that the BTC price is moving down in such a way that more down becomes quite likely (if not apparent, but still not guaranteed).

I am not sure if it is really fair to blame DCA on the ramifications that come from extreme levels of overinvesting (and to be clear, it seems that we are referring to the Mindrust situation - which is a never ending great example of what can happen to reasonable normies during a downward BTC price spiraling situation), and overinvesting can come from either lump sum investing (and not accounting for dip possibilities) as well as overlyinvesting in terms of DCA in which money runs out, but the assumption of further down does not run out, so there may well be some belief that the ONLY thing that can be done is to sell your BTC when you have had DCAed in but you believe that the BTC price is going to continue to drop... which likely ends up bringing bad results, even though it seems like the best of things to do.

No matter what BTC accumulation strategy that we employ or even combination of BTC accumulation strategies that might even involve attempts at BTC portfolio maintenance after we believe that we have already largely arrived at our BTC accumulation target levels... we frequently have to determine how aggressive that we are able to be without over doing it, and by the way with mindrust, he even admitted that he had gotten up into 40%-ish BTC in his investment portfolio, even though he admitted that 10% or maybe 20% at that time, should have had been the tops of his allocation levels into BTC.. but he seemed unable to control himself, even though he admitted that he knew that he was way over overinvested.. not just a little bit over invested by a few percentage points.. but instead like more than double the levels that he had pretty good ideas about being the more practical and/or prudent approach to his BTC accumulation target levels..

So I am not even against over investing to some extent, but there are extremes that need to be considered that likely can happen no matter what kinds of methods any of us might employ in our BTC accumulation strategies.

And maybe the mindrust example can also show that artificial and somewhat arbitrary selection of target BTC accumulation levels of wanting to get to 10 BTC is not healthy. especially maybe when it is likely known that he should only have about 5-7 BTC at most in his BTC portfolio... based on his own then financial circumstances.. including maybe a kind of need to defer with some of the BTC accumulation if the budget did not really allow for that quantity of BTC accumulation.

Many of us likely realize that it can be frustrating for a lot of us, even if we might feel that we employed pretty decent BTC accumulation strategies, but the BTC price keeps dropping, and we don't have any money left to buy more BTC. but we also could be at a variety of points in terms of maybe still being in profits with our BTC stash and wanting to preserve whatever profits that we still have while the BTC price is dropping, so surely guys can end up engaging in all kinds of mental gymnastics in order to deviate from their original plan and to believe that a new plan would be better to carry out.. which ends up not working out so well.. but it is a gamble, and no one says that selling on the way down might not end up working out, from time to time. even though it is most likely the opposite of what any of us should be doing and/or planning to do during BTC dips, especially when the dips are at, near or even below historical low indications, that might include the 200-week moving average and/or other bottom indicators.... even when the BTC price surely might continue to drop more.

I have absolutely no prob with 1/3 lump sum, 1/3 DCA and 1/3 buying on the dips strategy.
My only relevant point is that while an asset is in an exponential growth phase, it pays to be earlier, literally.
However, this statement does not include the psychological enforcement of someone's conviction that may come from DCAing.
Still, I would say that DCAing when it is going down could have quite an opposite psychological effect as we have seen here in one "famous" case.

Entropy just plain sucks.

Well of course, we can look at the charts and see that a kind of strategy that involves stocking up around 6 months before the halvening and then selling around 18 months after the halvening is likely to beat DCA (as Phil's various posts show).. .but surely there are a few assumptions contained therein that involve normies really having lump sums that they they are able to move around value like that (meaning in and out of BTC), and then would we end up being rigid in our employing time as a factor.  

Of course, the timing of BTC's performance could end up getting manipulated.  I don't really like the idea of buying a bunch and selling a bunch and then anticipating being able to buy back lower, even though surely it may well end up paying off.. even though maybe if you do something like this with 25% of your BTC stash, then maybe that would be a kind of compromise approach that is not as objectionable to my own sense of how to manage your BTC holdings by mostly HODLing them rather than fucking around with getting out and anticipating being able to get back in.

Another thing is that playing around with lump sum might make more sense than DCAing after you have already built up you BTC holdings, and how do you build it up in the first place may well better involve some kind of a DCA approach with significant portions of your funds - with the passage of time.

Starting a strategy right now is likely going to depend on what you have going on with your own particulars, so if we assume someone might have a $100k investment portfolio that s/he has built up over 10 years, and then s/he already has $10k that s/he is willing to invest into BTC, but then maybe s/he also has around $1k per month of extra cash that is coming in that s/he is able to invest into bitcoin, so in the next 6 months, s/he has $16k that can go into BTC.

How is such a hypothetical person going to get BTC exposure?  maybe 1/3 right away, 1/3 DCA and 1/3  buying on dips would be a kind of practical default rather than just putting $10k into BTC right away .. but the $10k right away and then the $250 per week divided between DCA and buying on dips is not a bad idea either, except spending the $10k available right away into BTC does not leave any dry powder to be able to buy BTC on dips in the event that dips might happen from here.

What would Jesus do?

Ok. .. I take that back..

We are talking about how to proportion our BTC allocations that involve how much to put into BTC right now and is that enough to put $10k in right away in regards to our cashflow coming in that we may or may not choose to put into BTC or maybe just put into our emergency fund since we already bought $10k worth of BTC?  

and then are we going to save any of that cash in our emergency funds for the potential of buying BTC on further dips?  

I would hate to come into BTC with a plan that assumes that I am buying at the bottom, even if the current BTC price does seem pretty low, including that our current BTC price of $25,900-ish is currently right around $1,700 below the 200-week moving average, which does already seem to be pretty low, but it seems that it would be foolish of me to presume our current BTC price to be the bottom, even though it may well end up being the bottom.. and by the way, I just noticed that the 200-week moving average is currently ONLY moving up about $11 per day, so over the past few weeks little by little, the UPpity slope of the 200-week moving average is getting less and less steep...


It's mentally and financially attractive to engage in DCA rather than lump sum (including practicalities of the real world rather than fantasies about having funds available that are not available), and DCA practices also may well end up allowing someone to be more aggressive in their BTC accumulation as compared with lump summing it, which is more than just mentally comfortable but ends up resulting in the concrete and material buying of more cornz that ends up paying off, if the BTC price ends up going up.

For example, we should be able to conclude that it would be materially and substantially better (even though also mentally better too) (even though not as good in terms of percentage returns) to right now have 100 BTC accumulated and in our private bitcoin wallet at an average price of $1,000 ($100k invested) rather than having had 20 BTC accumulated at an average price of $350 ($7k).  Which would you rather have?.. oh and maybe the examples should not be so extreme, but maybe the aggressive DCA-er might have ONLY been able to get around 50 BTC at an average of $1k each (so for $50k), but still I think that the examples show real life abilities to be more aggressive over a period of time that has good chances of resulting in the accumulation of more BTC.

Do you think that I am creating a strawman? to be showing a difference between hypothetically whimpy and hypothetically more aggressive and proclaiming that the DCA approach has allowed for the hypothetically more aggressive to be able to follow through with a more aggressive approach to his/her BTC accumulation as compared to the lump summer who may well be engaging in his/her lump summing because s/he is not as convicted about his/her investment into BTC and s/he is distracted into other investments, and DCA likely results in more potential for ongoing conviction in part that the psychologically comfortable facilitates abilities to be more aggressive that ends up materially and substantially paying off.

FYI: his chart doesn't even have taxes, so those numbers are not "real" (at least for US) anyway.

Jan 31 2016 368 six months before 1/2 ing
July     2016  650 the 1/2 ing
July     2017  2518 12 months past the 1/2 ing 6.8x better
Jan      2018  10,108 18 months past 1/2 ing  27.4x better

so
first 1/2 ing the 12 month after the 1/2 ing sell won.
second 1/2 ing the 18 month after 1/2ing sell won.

Dec 2019 7,194
May 2020 8,672
May 2021  57,714
Nov 2021  61,320

so
first 1/2 ing the 12 month after the 1/2 ing sell won.
second 1/2 ing the 18 month after 1/2ing sell won.
third 1/2 ing the 18 month after 1/2 ing sell won but almost a tie.

Basically his advice is not as accurate as saying

buy 6 months before
sell 12 months after

because the 2103 rally was 200x if you did that.

ie in dollars 1 turned into 200 .



Buy now you are 8 maybe 7 months away 224 days

according to this


https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/

planB is a 'quant', so he tries to find quantitative patterns in the past that could be pointing to some possible future, but, as Yogi Berra said: "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future."

The bottom line, he could be right or wrong, it's hard to know.
Still, the method of buying in 'bulk' early beats DCA, as it was proven again and again.
I understand that DCA is mentally attractive, but it is an inferior method, clearly, especially for something that might still be at the exponential growth phase.

Well lets see

2012 may is six months early close of may price was 5.14
2012 nov is ½ ing 12.54
2013  is skipped 12 months would be better. than 18 it was 1129 on close
2014 march 18 months 457

so about 89x six months prior to 18 months after.

but over 200x six months prior to 12 months after.

not sure about next two jump ups.

but I will post.

I think this was good .

I used to like this handle and his tweets used to be informative but lately I have noticed he’s just tweeting nonsense and mostly self praise and promoting his YouTube channel.

Does his claim beat DCA too???

He’s ignoring that bitcoin isn't a get rich quick scheme anymore; now it's a don't get poor slowly strategy.

 
https://x.com/100trillionusd/status/1675822934785511426

 I know, right?  I've already got a whole line of clothing and accessories based on that meme and I'm in the process of publishing a third book in my trilogy.