Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17379. (Read 26630678 times)

wtf is this, almost 100$ price difference, this can't be good. Can finex do anything to be back to normal? Or we pass that point and now they need some kind of external intervenience? Idk...

I think I have found out why sometimes your posts are so large. You do insist in quoting/replying to any and all paragraphs. That's good for a detailed followup, but its better to just get the idea of main points and do a single reply that covers them all. Its just a suggestion that will make everything easier. It's not perfect, it loses detail, but it is much more convenient.

About the insider trading... It matters a lot if they are solvent or not: If they are, they can take advantage of arbitrage... if they aren't they would KNOW not to do it. In fact, this big spread would suggest they are not doing the arbitrage, at least not in large ammounts.... THAT is suspicious... but who knows.

Now I know your worry, you have some funds on Bitfinex but you have it in FIAT (otherwise you would have already withdraw) and you would need to buy BTC at that premium price to get out.... Ok, lemme check something.... Ok, I am sorry, I tried to find another coin that wouldnt be at a premium price to get out, but all of them are. I donno, it's your call.

Depth charts are available on Cryptowatch, albeit limited. I'll make a note of that other site in case Crypto's down however.

Sometimes when we post, we have questions, and other times, we are making current observations.  My last post was more of the observation category and also to describe that my thinking had been changing on the topic.



I am not going to assume malevolence if there is little to no evidence, and I am not going to pump out scary scenarios if there is no justification for it; however, it still can be productive to comment about scenarios as they are unravelling and as the information is coming available to us.

Yeah, Bitfinex keeps quite a lot of its information private, but they also make announcements too - and they do not fall under traditional industry, when it comes to bankrupcy strategies, if they were going to go down that road.

I personally don't believe that we are in the bancrupcy category, yet, with Bitfinex, but any exchange owner (and insiders) are going to be tempted by their abilities to make additional money from their insider position, and I do not necessarily assume that exchange owners and insiders are engaging in insider trading - but the longer that these kinds of extreme price disparities exist, the more that I become skeptical regarding what the fuck are they doing to resolve the matter, or not.



Wether they are solvent or not, they can take advantage of insider situations - and whether they are solvent or not, they may be restraining themselves from such insider conduct.



I agree with you that Bitfinex is not likely to be a Gox 2.0.. even if there seem to be some similarities, there are also a lot of differences too.



I have some funds there, and I am not sure, yet whether a run on the bank is necessary - even though, maybe it is better to get some of the funds out...   I will consider the matter a bit more and maybe hope that it is not too late... hahahaha

I think he meant a place to watch the bid/ask order walls.

edit: Bitcoinwisdom is back now for me.

https://cryptowat.ch/

http://bitcointicker.co/

Not as nice a UI as Bitcoinwisdom but with a bit of clicking you can get the job done.

bitcoinwisdom.com is down now, they give the infamous 502 Bad Gateway

any other place I can watch the walls of all exchanges?

it would be beyond weird if bitfinex stopped all fiat in and out and there wasn't a price difference.
the price difference will only go away once normal operations are back.
i guess maybe poeple feel like JJA, and so the longer they remain dysfunctional the wider the price difference will be.
but IMO market isn't expressing more than the relevent FUD here, no wire transfers / FEELS like GOX

Yes, but whats the question? If there is any here...

All you are saying is a possible scenario, yes. In the past years I have done consulting for several companies in bankruptcy and let me tell you most of the times they are in a denial that makes them invent all sort of excuses for its solvency problems that would be similar to what's happening here. But also, it may be a legit explanation for a solvable incident. We just don't KNOW.

They DO know for sure, so yes, if they know they are solvent they have an awesome opportunity to take advantage of arbitrage. If they are not, then it doesn't matter, they are fucked big time as if they do that and later not be able to fill all claims, there would probably be criminal charges (depend on local laws).

If you are worried that this could be a GOX 2.0 that would crash BTC into a bear market for years.... I don't think so. GOX was the reference at that time, and it is almost a miracle the market recovered from that fiasco. Bitifinex, being somewhat important, is nowhere near in the position that GOX was.

If you have some funds in Bitfinex I would withdraw them asap, but other than that.....

AKA   - expressing in another way.


The longer that Bitfinex maintains its price disparity, the more uncomfortable I become.

For several days, I thought that it was not a big deal - but this is going on a week now.

Furthermore, in the beginning, I am thinking that there are a variety of innocent explanations; however, the longer it goes on, I become more skeptical regarding the possible innocent explanations.

For example, Bitfinex seemed to have been on a pretty decent roll - restructured itself, paid off it's debt through innovative tools, social cost sharing and creation of new categories of equities devices.  Also, maintained its trade volume...

One thing that causes me to worry about the large price differential and it carrying on for so long is that insiders at Bitfinex can take advantage of such large arbitrage opportunities  much more easily than regular people and even use those kinds of arbitrage opportunities as ways to attempt to address their solvency issues (O.k.... Yeah.. I said it... "solvency" issues).... a manner of raising money to pay for their having had paid off all of their BFX tokens...

A problem with this whole scenario is that there can be a trade off with getting the economic advantages and losing credibility when they let the matter drag on for extended lengths of time.

Why you always make it so complicated? lol

I did not say we are not close to ATH, I just said we are not at ATH. The difference is very important because we are still in a zone that could rebound downards instead of break upwards freely. Also, I am using Kraken price which right now is 1150€ and ATH during ETF day was at 1200-1227.

That's 75€ difference, not negligible at all. If the price would be able to cross that 75€ the cascading effect of short margin calls would probably shoot it higher.

I do agree that we are in a somewhat mean ATH average price, but its spikes which force margins to be liquidated and we are not there yet.

I understand that you are referring to spikes in ATH - however, when we look at the daily weighted average - we are pretty much at ATH levels

Think about it.


Daily price is going to close in about an hour an a half, and if it is above $1,215.72, then we are in the top 10 EVER prices for BTC.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.420


I don't know how you can NOT call that something close to an ATH...

Your bigger point is buying at ATH levels, and as long as you have a fairly long time horizon (just in case), this time is likely to be fine, also.

We have had more than half of the daily weighted averages for the year 2017 above $1k.. Seems a bit unprecedented to be floating at ATH levels for so long... So, even if there is a crash or a major correction, we will be back... and we will likely get an upwards exponential spike at some point too.... whether such upwards exponential spike is imminent and this time around or whether we are going to experience one or more downwards correction (before such upwards exponential spike) is still to be witnessed (or at least those cards have not played yet)

Those who want to sell, trying to convince everyone to buy and those who want to buy, trying to convince everyone to sell.

Same drama repeats every day, and this thread is a part of that!

I have bought Bitcoin at ATH several times with very good profit most of the times. Not saying that right now it is a good idea.... It even isn't ATH yet.

That is the kind of move that I would like to see.. - to amplify the situation for the various folks waiting on the sidelines - let's get up to $2k or more and stay there for a while - but really it seems that our stopping point or possible reversal point would more likely be in the $3k to $5k range.

In other words, teach the waiters a lesson.. because you need to be "partially in" bitcoin and exercise a form of incrementalism rather than waiting and playing balls to the walls investing.

Your source appears to be conspiracy theory sources, no?

Do we have any kind of explanation regarding movement of coins?

There can be all kinds of reasons that "cold storage" coins would move, even diversification of the risk might be one of the explanations.

Here, we are speculating that 50% of the coins have moved because users are cashing out.. What is the evidence for that kind of a conclusion?

the charts are making a sharp dive the last couple of days. 50% decrease makes me worried. The price is really high now so people will take profits with the first bad news that comes out. I really hate exchanges, like I am saying for months. We had it coming.

what's the problem? that's customers leaving. if that balance wasn't moving or all disappeared in one go, then it's time to worry.

Never buy crypto's at a top. BTC near ATH and you guys even think about buying now? With all the problems that we have ? No guys, the time to buy was a couple weeks ago.