If you think that Bitcoin is just a currency, you don't know what you're talking about. Cut the analysis bullshit and go back into your metal bagholding forums. You can't sell me such stories.
I guess you did not get the hint when they named it cryptocurrency instead of....cryptomoney. It is a currency; it's not money. Currencies are generally always a bad investment on a long timeline and there is no reason to own them unless you actually use them. Once the market cap tops out, whether that's at $1200 a coin, $200 a coin, or $10,000 a coin, everyone who was attempting to use it as a store of value is going to flee the ship to the base of Exter's pyramid (metals) since they are a superior store of value, while the only people that continue to hold coins will be the people who actually use it as a currency.
The number of people using it as a currency will obviously be factored by it's throughput (TPS). To have a high market cap as a currency, TPS would probably have to be drastically higher than it is now with something like a functioning LN and 5000 TPS. At that level it could probably float a large market cap as a payment processor, but I do not see a currency functioning well at low TPS with 1 MB blocks and no segwit or LN since low TPS is counterintuitive to how a currency is supposed to function (high turnover, not based on being a store of value or generational investment).
Spot on analysis. Bitcoin isnt even a commodity, ergo can never be money. It has no use outside a medium of exchange, all you can do with a btc is dump on the next greater fool lol (not that i mind the pyramid-like profits, ill just make sure i turn them into tangible assets at some point).
