Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17785. (Read 26607528 times)

I think that all of those attempting to predict strategies are too risky.

You are asserting that you want to protect yourself from some of the downside volatility and to accumulate more coins if such downside volatility happens and you do not want to sell too many coins, in case the price goes up - instead of down (which also seems the longer term trend).

Safest is incrementalism, and pick an amount that is comfortable for you.  I am currently selling about 1% of my total bitcoin holdings for every 10% rise, however I do it in about $20 increments, therefore, I am selling like .2% of my BTC holdings  for every 2% rise.. and then that money starts to add up and I have it in order to buy back..which sooner or later seems to happen.. and causes me to have more bitcoins even while the price is moving up.

It is almost inevitable in bitcoin that we are going to experience  some of these drastic moves in both directions and the downwards seem pretty obvious to be decent buying opportunities and you can use the accumulated money from selling incrementally (in very small amounts) for such buying back during those seemingly inevitable downturns.

china wants to move up. the spread between western exchanges and mainland china is $25. $ and € are hesitant.

i wish it could go sideways for a week or so to calm everyone down.

some people think with the price above $1000 for the third time, that this time it will not come back. some think the price recovery after the 35% drop is just a bounce/bull trap and that it will crash a third time.

i did not expect that price would recover so fast after PBOC intervention and the epic meltdown of chinese volume. it also came back way to fast for the three year mother of all cup and handle formations.

so here we are: clueless as always..


i will not touch the cold storage. but there are some coins that i could sell in order to buy back more if there is a drop. i missed the opportunity on jan.5th because i thought we would go to approx. $1400 or 1500 before dropping hard. i would like not to miss it again.

my current idea is to put a stop loss order somewhere in the area we are right now. problem is that i would hate to put it to close to the actual price, because i don´t want to get burned by a drop that triggers my stop loss but then turns around and rally hard...

so where would you armchair experts suggest a sweet spot for a stop loss ?


edit: woah... fuck.. too late..  

In other words you are coming off as retarded, but trying to act as if you are spreading some meaningful technical knowledge.... about inevitable patterns..... and bitcoin is not inevitable.... helrow??? an also without addressing any of the various previous points that I made...

Good luck with your attempt at a little bubble living.


By the way, bubble, I do like your cute ignore JJG meme... hahaha..   

Yeah this time it will be different.  








Also at JJG:

1) dollar cost averaging works in a lot of situations, and usually folks do better by employing some kind of variation of it - not necessarily by attempting to time the market or attempting to maximize anything (such as low costs)

2) Whether this is your point or not, the point plays in to your attempt to criticize folks merely because they have a variety of approaches and whether they call their approach "investing" or "trading" or whether they are consistent along the way or whether they consistently change their approach does not really matter.  People will frequently attempt to figure something that works for them and they may also have to change it many times because not everyone is as smart as you seem to be suggesting that they have to be in order to have a successful approach.






Yes.  You made your points, and I made my points, and hopefully one or both of us become more enlightened by exchanging points.  hahaahaha.






Yes.. I responded to various points that you made, and you limited your response without addressing a variety of points that I made.  I doubt that we necessarily need to act as is we get all the points of others in order to make our own points or even to substantially respond to points that were raised by the other (whether intentional or not).





what you want to suggest and what you suggest can be two different things.





Both of us are probably smart enough to know that prices rise and drop for a variety of reasons which can be a combination of factors that you can measure in technical analysis and math, and yes, sometimes it is news and sometimes it is merely a small number of manipulators causing the momentum or the change in momentum.

Like I already mentioned (or at least implied), even if you are relying on technical analysis, you are also assigning a set of probabilities to events - unless you happen to think (which I believe would be foolish) that some results are inevitable rather than 20% or 60 % or 93.54% probable?  I doubt that you believe that outcomes are certain, even if sometimes you are phrasing some of your analysis in ways that seem to give way too high of probabilities to some outcomes.




Fair enough.. It may have just been my reading, and may have just been that one post?   I am not attempting to find any pattern in your predictive behavior.. at least, not yet..  





Whatever.... we can call ourselves whatever we want, and yeah, sure our activities may also fit in one category or another and we may or may not be calling ourselves correctly... Why does it matter?

Ever heard of dollar cost averaging?
Dollar cost averaging only works if the price is going down from the point you bought in the first place, otherwise you are increasing your cost average by buying more as the price rises, yet this isn't the point of my argument only yours. But alas you have your JJG blinders on again and have missed the point? Do you even read people's posts or do you form an opinion based on the word length?

So, yeah, even while we are experiencing decent upwards pressures, you are suggesting the price could drop at any minute... Yeah, you are right that it can, but when we are in the midst of a run (and even kind of in a momentum production period, there is no reason to believe that the price is going to suddenly reverse - even though it is possible to experience such reversals, the momentum remains ---- uppity... )

Did I suggest a sudden drop? no
I suggested this repeat of chart patterns. Please look at June-July 2016, November-Dec 2015, May-August 2014, November 2013-Feb 2014. Do you not see the same thing over and over and over and over?
Or do you suggest that there has to be some kind of ban or horrible news piece to make the price drop?


Edit:
..."not going all in at all times"
Also I do not use infinitives like you seem to, it is extreme left or extreme right with you.




http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/12/difference-investing-trading.asp

"In general, investors seek larger returns over an extended period through buying and holding. Traders, by contrast, take advantage of both rising and falling markets to enter and exit positions over a shorter timeframe, taking smaller, more frequent profits."

Hodl tight, give them nothing.

When I've seen it touch 200$ in 2015... I was thinking: "Are these people insane?? WTF is this sh!t??" ...

Just hodl the rocket!

No "its hapenning" meme? No "to the moon" posts?

It would be more of a "monster bounce", if we had not been in the same place 30 days before... more or less... .. so there is a difference between coming back versus going up for the first time ... no?

As you were typing that post, the price had already been touching upon $1010.. and maybe even a bit beyond.... So, yeah, even while we are experiencing decent upwards pressures, you are suggesting the price could drop at any minute... Yeah, you are right that it can, but when we are in the midst of a run (and even kind of in a momentum production period, there is no reason to believe that the price is going to suddenly reverse - even though it is possible to experience such reversals, the momentum remains ---- uppity... ).. so in that regard, it seems more realistic to prognosticate that there is going to be a bit more uppity.. before the down or flat begins..... am I not correct?



You are just spouting out wanna be right self righteous baloney here, and seem to be trying to accuse people of being hypocrites merely because they are not going all in at all times.  Even you should realize by now that having a really strong belief that the price is going up does not necessarily mean that you gotta go balls to the walls in, otherwise you are hypocrite.. that is baloney.   A person could have a strong belief about up and only be 60% in  or 80% in or 96% in... and that is going to vary from person to person, and they can practice such variance without being hypocritical.  


And, buying on dips is a great strategy.. for a lot of reasons, including the fact that there is frequently a cash flow situation that people have to deal with... maybe when prices were $250 for much of 2015, I only had $2k cash that I could invest, and I choose to invest $1k because even though I think that the price has a good chance of going up, I really do not know.  Now, over the next 12 to 18 months, I may continue to have a cash flow that continues to allow me to buy $100 a month... but I did not have that additional $1,200 to $1,800 available in 2015, even though in subsequent months, I can assess my finances and figure out that I do have that money available (to buy on dips)...

Ever heard of dollar cost averaging?      

You consider a $270 move up in 10 days slow ? I assume you're not a trader who understands proportionality. That's a monster bounce, in a short time.

This is awesome performance. Unexpected but welcome. Not a crazy volatile pump just a nice steady, confident climb. Looks like 2017 is the year of the bitcoin.

Yeah, my previous statement was wrong.  The 199 is the bitcoins reserved but not used.  The rest is BTC borrowed to short BTC against other currencies besides USD.  USD swaps can only be used to buy a different currency (aka sell USD).  BTC swaps can only be used to sell BTC (aka buy some other currency).  Margin is the balance you hold in your account that determines (along with your leverage level) how much you are allowed to borrow.  So there are nearly 22k in shorts, but only 13k shorting against USD.  9k are shorting BTC against other currencies.

the laggards from btc-e still are below $1000, so we still can't say we are 100% above $1000

but this rise seem more sustainable, because the price is rising kinda slowly, so changes of bears panicking and unloading lots of coins with no plans is lower, but we never know

my bet is that $1000 level won't be lost as quickly and easily as in the end of the year

I knew it!

No

my question is will 1k stay ? hopefully this time it will stays there.... a new floor for btc