Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17915. (Read 26691619 times)

You could be correct, and I am just saying that we cannot assume $880 to be bottom...

I am definitely prepared for up from here because I already bought a lot of coins from this dip, and I had not really sold very many anyhow in the rise to $1140.

I only use $600 as a reference point because that is where we started in this particular bull run, without any meaningful correction (I think we may had a couple of 7% corrections).  I also think that this most recent correction of approximately 29% should be sufficient in order to get prices to proceed back upwards; however, there could also be a certain level of bear desperation and willingness to operate at a loss in order to keep bitcoin prices down while they have a bit of correction momentum.. to attempt to use it some more iin order to attempt to continue to drive prices down.

In any event, I am not really wedded to any scenario that I describe, and it could take several weeks, even months to resolve this disagreement about price.. and therefore we could have quite a bit of up and down in the $600 to $1140 price range (even if $600 is less of a likely scenario, but it still does seem to be in the range of feasible since we have only been moving upwards from there since the beginning of October, remember?).

Metals vs. Bitcoin

I collected coins as a child and, as I grew into an adult, I became less trustful of the gubmint, fiat money, and "authorities" in general. So... naturally my childhood hobby evolved into wealth protection through precious metals.

Yet, metals biggest detraction (IMO) is pretty much the first words of praise out of any gold bugs mouth, especially when comparing them to Bitcoin. "If you don't hold it, you don't own it." Metals are clumsy and to truly secure them, you had better have them hidden away somewhere out of the reach of anyone who might try and take them from you. Obviously, storing them where you live is out. You certainly can't trust any third party. So, you are pretty much stuck burying them here, and there. Plus, if you are protecting any large amount of wealth, you are literally stuck with a lot of weight. Traveling around with your life savings in times of strife might be a dangerous proposition.

Bitcoin, however, is brilliant when it comes to security. Yes, we've seen high profile people fuck it up in a major way, but trust me, done correctly, no one is getting your private keys without your explicit permission. You can also take your entire "stack" along with you with great ease, should mobility be required for one's well being. Crossing borders with millions of dollars is now child's play. I don't fear the co-opting scenario mentioned by r0ach because I know there are enough like-minded Bitcoiners out there who would sustain an original fork in such a scenario. Granted, I will be much more comfortable once the decentralized global wireless mesh network is up and running (it's coming, I swear). I also don't fear any of the arguments around centralized mining, as again, a fork is a simple wrench in the works of anyone trying to gain control in such a manner.

What Bitcoin lacks in unchangeability, it makes up with concealability and transferability.
 
The saying, "If you don't hold it, you don't own it", is what prompted me to come up with my sig. Granted, it's not as short and to the point as the original, but it's as short as I could make it without omitting any necessary info.

I don't think I have a point. I like metals (especially copper and lead), but Bitcoin is now the most interesting wealth preservation tool in existence (again, my opinion, time will tell). The genie is out of the bottle and it's not going back.

The most important things one can have in any scenario is the ability to think and the skills to apply the necessary solutions.

I'm calling the floor outside of any currency devals, black swan events, possible rallies, etc. So basically if the hot speculation is over for a while, but people still want to continue to accumulate for longer term investment.

4-5 months?  Trump goes in office in a few days.  I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of large scale economic events that affect price one way or another sooner.

Absolute floor at end of this week is 830. Floor somewhere around 860 in 2-3 months. Floor = 900 in 4-5 months.

Buy if price gets anywhere that close.  Buy now if you don't want to bother with waiting. 

Three months ago it was $600. I think your most bearish bottom of $600 is unlikely. The summer resistance at $800 is now a support level. If it does crash back to $600 I think it wouldn't take long to go back up. I'm bullish, this strikes me as a bear trap.

You are saying?  "if this is the bottom"

At this time, we have a price battle that kind of started three weeks ago and the bears kind of let the prices go up further than they wanted (or maybe they were kind of willing to let it go up)..... anyhow, now there is a battle that seems to be starting...   There is a disagreement about price. Sure, maybe we will end up in the $880s, but there are a lot of areas between about $600 and $1140 that we could end up...

O.k.  Maybe I am being a bit broad with my description of the range.. but it just seems too early to call anything...

There is a potential of another test of support in the lower $800s, but yeah, maybe we don't go there, and then that scenario would be bullish... but I don't think that you can determine either bearish or bullish in the short term because we gotta get some resolution of this $600 to $1140 range... which is pretty fricken broad at the moment, and surely if we do not get further test of the bottom and $880 ends up being the bottom, as you are suggesting, then that would be a pretty bullish scenario that does not yet seem to be a given (I would ballpark that scenario at less than 45%.. but yeah surely it is difficult to know for sure while in the very beginning stages of what appears to be a disagreement about price)

The best bet in the long run is determined by whatever you believe makes up the base of Exter's pyramid:



I personally don't see bitcoin occupying the same bottom slot as monetary metals so it would have to be one higher on the same level as fiat.  We live in a closed ecosystem and the blockchain for metals was created by two neutron stars colliding, so unless you can replicate that, it's not very easy to tamper with the metals blockchain.  People spam the word "anti-fragile" for Bitcoin, but it's just not in the same category of security as requiring two neutron stars to alter.  As you can see, Exter's pyramid is mostly a scale of real anti-fragility.

People like Bitcoin because they look at it as a free money tree of upward growth.  Assuming the market cap had topped out on both metals and bitcoin and you were forced to go all-in on one, which one are you going to pick?  The aggregate market will likely gravitate towards the most anti-fragile solution in that case if the upside is tapped out.  The only reason people hold Bitcoin instead is because they believe it can have higher yield in the short term as a speculative instrument.

Since less than 1% of people own metals, and even less own Bitcoin, they both have a lot of speculative upside.  It's all about measuring the risk and upside vs one another.  Metals do have huge upside of probably around $5000-$20,000 for an ounce of gold and $166-$1333 for an ounce of silver in current purchasing power.  This would be an average of a +10.6x for gold and +45x for silver.  This means Bitcoin needs to have greater than a 10-45x upside ($8840 - $39,600 per coin) for you to consider it since the risk is higher.

To flatten out some of the noise here, let's assume partipants are 50/50 gold silver split and give you a +27.5x gain.  In that case, Bitcoin would need to have upside potential of $24,200 per coin to be worth holding as a long term investment and not day trading (as of market prices today).  Without Lightning network or a block size increase, I think Bitcoin might get stuck in the $10k-20k range.  So you have these two variables in bitcoin throwing a big monkey wrench into what potential price can be.

Anyway, as you can see from my numbers, it is difficult to advocate a 100% all-in position on Bitcoin with 0 metals even if you are a crazed gambler seeking maximum yield.  If you fall in that category of seeking max yield while still having some type of safety, you would likely be something like 50% metals 50% bitcoin at most, or even 70% metals 30% bitcoin due to the risks involved.  (Notice I did say you need to be a crazed gambler to have 30-50% of your money in Bitcoin).

Sometimes it is difficult to determine if it is going to stop or if the friggen bears still have moar coins to dump.

In the first leg of the dump from $1090 to $890, I bought some at $900 and some at $925.  I had some technical difficulties that is why I had the second purchase at $925. 

Then I sold all of the $900 coins and some of the $925 coins above $1000 - before we got the second dump, which I bought at $880, and I thought it was over..  but then we got the third dump from $880 to $812 and then I was getting a bit nervous about buying at that level because I had blown quite a bit of my wadd at $880 without selling them back... and I also wanted to be prepared, just in case we go below $780 or lower (who knows).    In the last couple of days, at least I was able to sell all of the $880 coins... but I still have some of my $925 ones that I have not yet been able to sell... not really a big deal because the $925 coins is only the equivalent of about 1% of my total stash, and I did sell quite a few of the other coins above $925, so it may not really be a big deal if I sell some above $880 and below $925 and still be profitable... if needed.. which I probably will just wait it out, even if we were to get stuck in some kind of sub $800 price scenario for a while, it will likely all get worked out with some additional trades in the future.

At some point, if I am not able to sell my $925 coins above $925, then it may just be administratively easier to just remove those calculations from my figuring of future actions and just fold them into my holdings and restructure my future trades without accounting for whether some coins were bought higher.. blah blah blah... In the end, I know how many coins that I have at any given time and how much fiat I have put into the system and therefore I know the average costs per BTC according to those numbers and my spreadsheet adjusts accordingly, even if every single trade was not as profitable as it could have been. 

quite frankly i was just starting to get used to that nice steady sideways thing.
now these damn speed bumps are killin me...

It was only a month ago I was advising someone to close his sell order at $780. A month later and its crashed to $880. If this is the bottom it's up $100 from a month ago.

I'm not sure about the time frame might take a couple of weeks maybe of not much movement. But I'm feeling comfortable about the bottom too. Looking forward to next week.

cover your sells.

yes i was canceling orders, hitting market, and cashing price like a mad fool too... was fun.


dang there goes 880

I'm working with the assumption that it wasn't a correction, more like a unavoidable bear trap, i expect a pretty fast recovery back over 1000$ ( within a week ) and continue to rally toward 1337 ( in a couple weeks ) and beyond ( moon ).

Are you currently referring to covering shorts or longs?

I just buy as the price goes down.. unless it looks like it is going down in extreme fashion, then I attempt to cancel as many of my buy orders as I can and then maybe buy some of those at a lower price, if I am able to get to a computer while such a thing is happening, which happened when the price dropped from the $1090s arena down to $890 within about an hour. 

Luckily I was alerted early during the $1090 to $890 drop because the extremity of the drop became apparent in less than 10 minutes into it.  But if you cannot get to a computer, then you just gotta live with whatever you have preset... and maybe attempt to regroup afterwards.

I don't see too much going wrong, probably more sideways consolidation? We've already had our major correction / dump a couple of days ago.

if you aren't done covering in the next few minutes you're fucked.

check this thread periodically while trading to incress your stress levels

Probably the terminology does not matter too much is we are understanding what we are talking about.

I think that part of the point that I was attempting to make is that I just stagger or step my trades all along the spectrum and all the way up the ladder and then generally all the way back down, as compared with what you were saying that you pulled out your wallet of bitcoin's and began to enter a few staggerings in the $1,100s, which ended up being a decent strategy and may have even been better if the price had gone high enough in order to execute all of your sell orders - then pretty much you got a pretty decent interim play very near the top of this particular cycle.



Even though we may have some tendencies to feel some regrets about we could have played a bit higher stakes, to me, I don't really want to try that kind of bigger stakes strategy because it really does not seem to work too well for my stress levels.

On the other hand, I do attempt to learn from what I could have maybe done a little bit better in order to increase some of my comfort levels.  For this particular correction (that may not be over yet), I went through my various BTC trading accounts, and I restructured a large number of my orders under a new tweaked framework that pretty much caused the spreads to be considerably larger.... and yeah, I will probably tweak those spreads a bit more in the future, but it seems that this new tweaked strategy should at least last me for several months into the future - absent some other erratic  BTC price movements that don't end up being captured in the parameters of expectations that allowed by my new set-up.

this doesn't look good