Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 17919. (Read 26707418 times)

This sort of discourse is why I love this thread.

Sorting through the memes, Trains/Rockets/Wile E Coyote gifs, chart posts with "TA" which is neither technical nor analytical, completely valueless comments "Is crypto done", long winded dribble, diatribes, plus tons & tons of bull and bear shit - occasionally there is some insightful and interesting discussion taking place.

Exter's pyramid is mostly a concept of money seeking safety, so like I said, the anti-fragile nature of an asset plays a big part there and not just "belief" that it is money.  One of bitcoin's largest weaknesses is the rough consensus attack (as seen demonstrated on Ethereum), so that undermines the concept that just belief it is money is good enough when you create multiple targets people have to believe in with no way of convergence.



This is actually not true in the context that the silver market cap is barely bigger than Bitcoin.  You talked about belief in an object being money is important.  Well, it's not that easy.  Out of all the noble metals that exist, the only ones suited to be used as currency are gold and silver.  There is no infinite, arbitrary selection to choose from for various reasons.  This is the reason silver has such huge upside, maybe even higher than Bitcoin, because the bankers attempted to suppress the only other viable option besides gold for hundreds of years while they tried to corner gold instead.  If gold is re-monetized in any meaningful way either by central bankers themselves or by the free market, then the manipulation on silver also breaks with the type of gains you only see once in a lifetime.



Well, Bitcoin is obviously an attempt to recreate gold, except for the fact that "proof of work" done to mine gold always gives you a fungible result between participants, while due to the rough consensus attack, there is no way to converge upon what is and isn't bitcoin.  The only real way for it to function is to be released in a finished state and never fork so the proof of work is always cumulative instead of branching off into the equivalent of alternate universes.  



I'm sure the people in Rome thought they would be mining asteroids for gold too right before the dark ages came.  Anyway, humans are a long way off from living in an open ecosystem instead of a closed one, if ever, so it's not really worth discussing at this point.

when they finally stop devaluing it will be because the USD will be dropping, so bitcoin has nothing to worry about.

i understand, but I still refuse to believe 600 is in anyway realistic.
no one will be willing to sell a bloody satoshi come 860.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-weakens-yuan-following-last-weeks-jump-031527979--finance.html

I don't mean to poo poo technical analysis because you may be correct about those areas of support.

I am just going by the mere fact that it has only been a short period of time since we were there at that price point, so therefore it is reasonably within the range of possible prices in the short term (week to month).  We already know that Bitcoin has a historical tendency to overshoot expectations or reasonable expectations... and really there can be a combination of factors that allow prices to get pushed that far down, including someone who has covertly acquired coins over the counter and who strategically places them (or even moves them to exchanges at opportune times).  Sure, there are also tools in which you can push down without even having the actual coins... but sure, maybe the bears are going to run out of coins, it is possible, but even though $600 seems on the extreme end of possible, we were there a bit more than 3 months ago (as I continue to repeat).  

Do you think that I am wanting or hoping for $600?  Currently, I have about 94% of my holdings in BTC, so I only have 6% available to buy on a price drop, and maybe in reality only about 1-2% because some of those funds would be likely be used up with my orders already set to buy in the event that the price goes down.. so by the time we get to lower $600s, I would only have about half of that fiat left (and maybe only be willing to put half of my half into buying at that price point).

Anywhoooo.... if we get a few more tests of support, even at $812 and we stay above it, then it may become even more difficult to get below it.  So far we have only had one test of lower $800s (sure we do not have to have another test of support, but it is not unreasonable to think that it could happen in the next 12 hours or even within the next week).  




Edit - came in after my above response post:

 


That is not a target of mine because I do not bet like that (even though I continue to hold some fiat to continue to buy as the prices go down, but I tend to run out of fiat if prices continue to go down irrationally beyond expectations). 

In essence, $600 is a range of possibilities in this price battle that is still in the process of resolution, and it may even be the outer range with fairly low probabilities - maybe less than 5%... Anyhow, it is also quite possible that BTC prices will never, ever, ever, ever again return below $880.

It did drop some more but $30 last time I checked. It is the completely opposite way it was last week.
Could it drop to $800 by morning?
This is not very assuring if you have accumulated somewhat of a good amount in the past month.

LOL I take a look in and what do I see? $888 at Stamp again.  

Good luck in China.

Well, I believe that that rendition of the pyramid is needlessly complex. The utility of this tool breaks down when it loses the attribute of each layer being an abstraction of the layer below.

BTAIM, I would place at the apex "societal belief in the concept of money". In my mind, metals and crypto are peers in the next layer up. As neither are an abstraction of anything other than the societal belief in the concept of money.

Right now, at that layer, metals occupy a 99.8% wedge, with crypto making up the adjacent 0.2% sliver -- but growing quickly ( on a scale encompassing decades).


Even if you don't envision crypto at the same layer as metals, why need it occupy the same layer as fiat? Fiat is -- or at least was until 1913, 1933, or 1964 however you want to think of it -- an abstraction of metals. Crypto was never such. It does not need to be shoehorned into a taxonomy that was set in stone before its existence.


If you want to go universal, you don't get to do so without the observation that the current supply of monetary metals is infinitesimally small in relation to those we will have access to in the future. OTOH, Bitcoin supply is fixed*.


Porque' no dos? I wouldn't know how to even start making that evaluation. Fortunately, your hypothetical is not in effect, and I cannot at this point think of a situation that would force me to make such a choice.


I'm not going to disagree with your numbers. While I do disagree, there is no solid means of making that evaluation. I think you're off the mark, but have only speculation upon which to rely. As do you.

That said, I agree that is foolish to have a lot of wealth tied up in either of these asset classes without a holding in the other. I currently am biased toward Bitcoin, as I believe the potential upside is much greater than that of metals.

600!?
we'd have to blow past 2 support zones 800 and 750 and then PLUNGE to 650 and then break that support and drop another 50$

https://s24.postimg.org/6wczi52zp/Untitled.png
 
consider raising your bottom target a little higher... i mean you can always move it down again if market starts to tank like a SOB, its a long way down to 600...

What do you think of Trump's leniency towards Israel?

The yuan just went up again today as btc went down at the same time.

You could be correct, and I am just saying that we cannot assume $880 to be bottom...

I am definitely prepared for up from here because I already bought a lot of coins from this dip, and I had not really sold very many anyhow in the rise to $1140.

I only use $600 as a reference point because that is where we started in this particular bull run, without any meaningful correction (I think we may had a couple of 7% corrections).  I also think that this most recent correction of approximately 29% should be sufficient in order to get prices to proceed back upwards; however, there could also be a certain level of bear desperation and willingness to operate at a loss in order to keep bitcoin prices down while they have a bit of correction momentum.. to attempt to use it some more iin order to attempt to continue to drive prices down.

In any event, I am not really wedded to any scenario that I describe, and it could take several weeks, even months to resolve this disagreement about price.. and therefore we could have quite a bit of up and down in the $600 to $1140 price range (even if $600 is less of a likely scenario, but it still does seem to be in the range of feasible since we have only been moving upwards from there since the beginning of October, remember?).

Metals vs. Bitcoin

I collected coins as a child and, as I grew into an adult, I became less trustful of the gubmint, fiat money, and "authorities" in general. So... naturally my childhood hobby evolved into wealth protection through precious metals.

Yet, metals biggest detraction (IMO) is pretty much the first words of praise out of any gold bugs mouth, especially when comparing them to Bitcoin. "If you don't hold it, you don't own it." Metals are clumsy and to truly secure them, you had better have them hidden away somewhere out of the reach of anyone who might try and take them from you. Obviously, storing them where you live is out. You certainly can't trust any third party. So, you are pretty much stuck burying them here, and there. Plus, if you are protecting any large amount of wealth, you are literally stuck with a lot of weight. Traveling around with your life savings in times of strife might be a dangerous proposition.

Bitcoin, however, is brilliant when it comes to security. Yes, we've seen high profile people fuck it up in a major way, but trust me, done correctly, no one is getting your private keys without your explicit permission. You can also take your entire "stack" along with you with great ease, should mobility be required for one's well being. Crossing borders with millions of dollars is now child's play. I don't fear the co-opting scenario mentioned by r0ach because I know there are enough like-minded Bitcoiners out there who would sustain an original fork in such a scenario. Granted, I will be much more comfortable once the decentralized global wireless mesh network is up and running (it's coming, I swear). I also don't fear any of the arguments around centralized mining, as again, a fork is a simple wrench in the works of anyone trying to gain control in such a manner.

What Bitcoin lacks in unchangeability, it makes up with concealability and transferability.
 
The saying, "If you don't hold it, you don't own it", is what prompted me to come up with my sig. Granted, it's not as short and to the point as the original, but it's as short as I could make it without omitting any necessary info.

I don't think I have a point. I like metals (especially copper and lead), but Bitcoin is now the most interesting wealth preservation tool in existence (again, my opinion, time will tell). The genie is out of the bottle and it's not going back.

The most important things one can have in any scenario is the ability to think and the skills to apply the necessary solutions.

I'm calling the floor outside of any currency devals, black swan events, possible rallies, etc. So basically if the hot speculation is over for a while, but people still want to continue to accumulate for longer term investment.

4-5 months?  Trump goes in office in a few days.  I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of large scale economic events that affect price one way or another sooner.

Absolute floor at end of this week is 830. Floor somewhere around 860 in 2-3 months. Floor = 900 in 4-5 months.

Buy if price gets anywhere that close.  Buy now if you don't want to bother with waiting. 

Three months ago it was $600. I think your most bearish bottom of $600 is unlikely. The summer resistance at $800 is now a support level. If it does crash back to $600 I think it wouldn't take long to go back up. I'm bullish, this strikes me as a bear trap.

You are saying?  "if this is the bottom"

At this time, we have a price battle that kind of started three weeks ago and the bears kind of let the prices go up further than they wanted (or maybe they were kind of willing to let it go up)..... anyhow, now there is a battle that seems to be starting...   There is a disagreement about price. Sure, maybe we will end up in the $880s, but there are a lot of areas between about $600 and $1140 that we could end up...

O.k.  Maybe I am being a bit broad with my description of the range.. but it just seems too early to call anything...

There is a potential of another test of support in the lower $800s, but yeah, maybe we don't go there, and then that scenario would be bullish... but I don't think that you can determine either bearish or bullish in the short term because we gotta get some resolution of this $600 to $1140 range... which is pretty fricken broad at the moment, and surely if we do not get further test of the bottom and $880 ends up being the bottom, as you are suggesting, then that would be a pretty bullish scenario that does not yet seem to be a given (I would ballpark that scenario at less than 45%.. but yeah surely it is difficult to know for sure while in the very beginning stages of what appears to be a disagreement about price)

The best bet in the long run is determined by whatever you believe makes up the base of Exter's pyramid:



I personally don't see bitcoin occupying the same bottom slot as monetary metals so it would have to be one higher on the same level as fiat.  We live in a closed ecosystem and the blockchain for metals was created by two neutron stars colliding, so unless you can replicate that, it's not very easy to tamper with the metals blockchain.  People spam the word "anti-fragile" for Bitcoin, but it's just not in the same category of security as requiring two neutron stars to alter.  As you can see, Exter's pyramid is mostly a scale of real anti-fragility.

People like Bitcoin because they look at it as a free money tree of upward growth.  Assuming the market cap had topped out on both metals and bitcoin and you were forced to go all-in on one, which one are you going to pick?  The aggregate market will likely gravitate towards the most anti-fragile solution in that case if the upside is tapped out.  The only reason people hold Bitcoin instead is because they believe it can have higher yield in the short term as a speculative instrument.

Since less than 1% of people own metals, and even less own Bitcoin, they both have a lot of speculative upside.  It's all about measuring the risk and upside vs one another.  Metals do have huge upside of probably around $5000-$20,000 for an ounce of gold and $166-$1333 for an ounce of silver in current purchasing power.  This would be an average of a +10.6x for gold and +45x for silver.  This means Bitcoin needs to have greater than a 10-45x upside ($8840 - $39,600 per coin) for you to consider it since the risk is higher.

To flatten out some of the noise here, let's assume partipants are 50/50 gold silver split and give you a +27.5x gain.  In that case, Bitcoin would need to have upside potential of $24,200 per coin to be worth holding as a long term investment and not day trading (as of market prices today).  Without Lightning network or a block size increase, I think Bitcoin might get stuck in the $10k-20k range.  So you have these two variables in bitcoin throwing a big monkey wrench into what potential price can be.

Anyway, as you can see from my numbers, it is difficult to advocate a 100% all-in position on Bitcoin with 0 metals even if you are a crazed gambler seeking maximum yield.  If you fall in that category of seeking max yield while still having some type of safety, you would likely be something like 50% metals 50% bitcoin at most, or even 70% metals 30% bitcoin due to the risks involved.  (Notice I did say you need to be a crazed gambler to have 30-50% of your money in Bitcoin).