Support broken. Looks like we are in the middle of the second leg down of A.
Critical support broken, confirms we were in the middle. Bottom should be around 5000 CNY.
China won't drop right now, so either the last small part of the dump is truncated, or delayed for several hours. 5000 CNY would have been a bear's wet dream.
I never margin trade, but this is a moment I would expect some smart types to go long.
You still think we have further to go down?
I am not criticising - given your recent prescience, I am asking.
Quite likely to go further down, but not right now. Go long only for scalping.
At last the Chinese dumped (as usually, started at 3.45 am my time, while I was asleep), probably completed the second leg down of A. This took too long and almost made me believe it was truncated.
If I am right and the third leg down is to come, resistance moved to about 6300 CNY. I am expecting a small bounce into that resistance, and sideways for two days, then the third leg down.
Right when the market was at an inflection point, ready to take the plunge and confirm the third leg down, a LTC pump started and BTC followed soon, so I don't know which way...
The market has slowed down, and the Chinese established a critical support at 6100 CNY. If this will be broken, which could happen tomorrow, then the third leg down will be confirmed and A would end soon.
Support was broken just after I went to sleep, but so far it bounced, we'll see what happens during the next hours, will the drop continue or not?
There is another possibility, that we already completed A and now we are actually during the B... The initial dump was so fast that it compressed the waves and made counting difficult.
It looks like the market was moving faster than I calculated and already completed A and we are now in B, possibly already after the top of it.
If the B scenario will become true, I expect to go sideways for the next 4 - 7 days, and then correct 30%, to about 660$ on western exchanges.
hahahaha
That is like your third revision...
Which is fair enough... this market is moving a lot, and sometimes it takes a while to get a grasp on it.
I kind of think that we had three legs of a down already, 1st leg down to $920, second down to $880, third down to $812; however, we have not really had a second test of the support at $812, which may or may not take place, but if there is another test of lower $800s and we get past that, then it's pretty much up from there...
On the other hand if support does not hold in the lower $800s, then I agree that $600s could be in the possible cards (again, not inevitable, but becomes more likely).
I am a little torn about this whole thing about whether another test of bottom is likely, and i am thinking that it is a bit more likely than not - maybe 51% ... .. yet we do have quite a bit of ongoing decent buying pressure... and it is a bit of a irritation to hear how much press the Chinese news is getting... and causing some discrediting of the value of bitcoin, when it is just another nonsensical china banning bitcoin story that has little to no actual legs in terms of negative substance (just negative hype, which may be enough in bitcoinlandia).
tia!
