The issue of ETFs is important both for the current year and for the next 2-3 years. If there is a rejection this summer, it is very likely that this year's bull market will end and we will return to the bear market until the effect of the halving is felt in 1 year. If accepted, it is possible to approach ATH already this year, i.e. to witness a unique bull cycle starting 1 year before the halving. It's clear that this is exactly why Blackrock wants to get in now, not when Bitcoin goes past 100K after the halving.
It is still not clear, whether the SEC is ready to change its mind. The news from yesterday (or the other day) is that Cboe Refiles Spot Bitcoin ETFs Following Surveillance Agreement with Coinbase, i.e. the text "Expected to enter into an SSA" is replaced by such an agreement already entered into. Of course, Blackrock were the first with a ready SSA.
https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/cboe-refiles-spot-bitcoin-etfs-following-surveillance-agreement-with-coinbase/Henceforth, the SEC has 2 sensible answers and 1 completely illogical one - the result of personal intrigues, political and financial influence, etc.:
1. Direct approval of all spot ETFs. The SEC can now feel victorious that they have brought Coinbase into some form of regulation, so this option is quite likely.
2. Indirect approval, subject to extending the scope of SSA. This means a requirement for the so-called pull actions i.e. the information-sharing agreement, under which the SEC will be able to request the personal data of those suspected of manipulations. I can only speculate here that Blackrock and the others would immediately enter into one, as long as Coinbase didn't object. Given that this will bode well for the stocks and help their future cooperation with the SEC, I believe that Coinbase has no basis for such a refusal. This topic is discussed in one article, but there is no comment from Blackrock et al.:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-bitcoin-etf-application-takes-160452048.html3. Denial on grounds of manipulation and that most of the volume is in non-US exchanges. This, of course, is just a front behind which are the nefarious interests of certain high-ranking bankers, feds and politicians who are pulling clown Gary's strings. However, this behavior is becoming increasingly unlikely, especially if the Grayscale wins the case and is joined by Blackrock in the event of a refusal. As Jay Clayton said recently, it is becoming very difficult to sustain the SEC denial.
So, the chances for an ETF approval are much higher now, than 2 months ago. And with a possible information-sharing agreement, IMO they would be over 90%.
