not every anticipation of price is a prediction. it might be an expression of disappointment, or mental preparation for short term downity
Seems like a prediction to me, but what do I know?
It's kind of like stating the obvious - BTC prices can go up and they can go down, and when there is so much talk of downity (or failure to go up) it becomes almost like a cheerleading for down or sideways.. and hey people can do whatever they like including having me complaining about their lack of appreciation for UPpity.. even though sure, sometimes UPpity is not happening and becomes quite less probable to happen.
Most of the time, I retain some hope for UPpity (and surely people do not need to be like me.. that's not what I am saying), but I recall when BTC prices broke below the 100-week moving average in early May 2022, I recall my own capitulation in regards to that we were "no longer in a bull market," and hoping for a bounce back or a quick reversal became a real low probability expectation.. .. so then we know what ended up happening from there.. even though there could have had been a spring back, it kept getting worse and worse and worse in terms of the difficulties to recover.
Right now, we have largely been in an UPpity since late 2022.. so people whining about downity. and failing to appreciate the uppity that we have experienced or that we might even continue to have more UPpity.. and again, sure they can whine about a downity coming or that we are experiencing too much resistance or that the BTC price is being manipulated to stay within a certain price range (around $30k.. blah blah blah), but that is not going to stop me from complaining about their complaining or at least making fun of their inability to see how great of a position that we are already in...even though sure we might get some downity.. but so what?
Life is good for the longer term hodlers.. and even for those who have been continuing to stack sats, even if it has been for shorter periods of time.. and sure some of the low-coiners might be cheering for downity because they want to buy MOAR coins cheaper for a longer period of time, yet it seems to be less justifiable for longer term bitcoiners to be whining that we might not be going UP fast enough for their lil selfies... .. in some of those cases, they are talking their book too.. in terms of either having had sold and expecting to buy back lower, and some of them might have not bought enough when BTC prices were lower, so they want another dip so that they can buy more.. but whatever.. we cannot always tell if the whiners or talking their book or not... and many of us longer term investors are talking our books, too - especially since we are largely stacked in ways that are biased towards UPpity.. and are you with me or not?
do you want down before up?
And actually that reminds me that it does not even matter so much what we want or what we are cheering for, the corn is going to do whatever it is going to do, which is not knowable with any high degrees of confidence, especially in the shorter terms... so are we going to appreciate where we are at? or whine about it? You can do whatever you like, and sure many of us would like BTC prices to go up.. but going up is not guaranteed.. but going up is not out of the question, even if some whiners/soothsayer wannabes are expecting down before up.
Excuse my late reply...
you made very rational and valid points. But the (different kind of) bear markets are an emotional thing to me. No matter how many times I tell myself to go through them in a rational manner they always tend to drag on to my emotions.
So when in doubt I often anticipate the worse case which is down. And most of the time when I say something like "we will (probably) go down", it's a sort of despair and an attempt to soothe my before mentioned emotions, not a prediction.
.... in your description of the various coiners that can't wait for
them corns to go up again you seem to have forgotten one kind:
the one ho hasn't sold shit
*again*, and who faces another barren run for several years
*again*