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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18114. (Read 26608813 times)

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 2349
Eadem mutata resurgo
The bear is coming. Run for your lives.

unfortunately i agree

market understands now that segwit wont come

If it doesn't come because of opposition from the bigblockers, then this makes it apparent that they are not really interested in scaling and they probably never were. They just used scaling as an excuse for attempting a governance coup. So when scaling solutions were presented they didn't go with it and instead pretended to be dissatisfied opting for something else.

Bitcoin has no issue with this: Even if segwit doesn't pass, bitcoin's scaling will continue upwards in terms of volume as some micro-txs will be replaced by larger txs. If instead of having 0.5$ txs you have 1$ txs, transaction volume (in USD) is doubled. If you go to 5$ txs, it goes 10x, etc etc. By having more value transacted per tx, while gradually eliminating very small txs, the network will process an increasing amount of money per day. Offchain txs or sidechains and altcoins will probably cover very small micro-txs while Bitcoin goes on to scale beyond Paypal in terms of annual volume (USD).

I wouldn't have a problem with 1mb staying as it is for a while more while an increasing amount of spammy transactions get evicted. The fees are ridiculously low, even for top priority, while at low priority fees are approaching zero cents - which indicate that there is no real shortage of transaction space.

In market terms, the only people concerned about "scaling" and making bogus price associations due to "scaling", are trolls. The market knows that as Bitcoin is, is OK, no matter what happens - unless it is contentiously forked (which is the only time the market negatively reacts - and rightly so). "Scaling worries", per se, didn't bother the price rising from 200 to 800 - despite what all the trolls were saying. Why? Because scaling value can continue even at 3 tx/s, by dumping miniscule or spammy txs in favor of larger & legit txs.

Scaling scares, fee scares, "bitcoin will collapse due to mempool" scares, growth scares, price scares, post-halving hashrate scares, have all been pretty much bogus. I'm pretty confident BTC can continue at least into 2018+ with 1MB and nothing will happen - except scaling up in value and indirectly evicting low-value and spammy txs, which will go offchain/sidechain/alt-chain (supposing they are legit).

Much truth and wisdom in these words ... it was never about 'scaling' but 'governance' (they said that at the beginning).

The whole 'scaling debate' is a bogus issue designed to divide and conquer and some of the usual useful idiots have fallen for it. The techno-economic challenge is essentially whether bitcoin can increase capacity and it is doesn't even need to be capacity of transactions, ultimately as long as Bitcoin's capacity of value transacted is increasing, we're golden.
newbie
Activity: 28
Merit: 0
Stead and slow fall of price

when will it stop
Yes, you're right stead fall of price is currently happen but my prediction is that the price will increase last week which it does and my prediction this week is that the price string up from weekend.

I'm not sure whether it is worth the effort to give any benefit of the doubt to the genuineness of this "down" characterization?

If you are coming up with any kind of conclusion about "down" you seem to be looking too short term, and you need to zoom out a little bit and look at context.

Maybe I can help out a little bit?  More or less, here's our current BTC price context.


In May/June 2016, we had a run up from mid $400s to upper $700s, then we had a close to 20% downward correction that was exacerbated and extended in part due to the early August Bitfinex "hack".

Since early October, we have experienced a pretty steady uptrend and several relatively small corrections during attempts to break through the lower to mid $700s.  

Our current price range seems to be largely floating in the upper end of the range of an ongoing uptrend pressures, largely between $715 and $755 - Maybe it could make some sense to suggest "downwards" if we start breaking below $720 or $715, otherwise prices seem to currently be in an "up" and remain "up", even we are going to experience some near term dips into the lower $720s.

Where do we go from here remains another question that remains bit difficult to determine, whether you are looking at charts, fundamentals or FUD spreading.  

I am personally a tiny bit more inclined to think that continued upwards movement into the upper $700s to mid $800s is more likely than a break below $700, but I certainly would not bet the farm on any such suggestion when maybe the odds are maybe around 55% for up and around 45% for down or something like that.  By the way, once we get into the upper $700s or mid $800s, it would not be surprising to experience a pretty decent battle and downwards correction at that point (even though it is not absolutely needed in order to experience continued upwards movement, such as a 5 to 10x explosion)

So yeah, wake me up and start making tiny assertions of "down" if we break below $720, and you have permission to be more vocal about short to medium term "down" if "downwards price movements" begin to appear that $700 may be tested, again.  

We would only get into longer term discussions of "down" if it appeared that we were to be going below $550 or maybe lower, and with more than a $150 cushion, no one really seems to making those kinds of longer term "down" assertions, yet.
newbie
Activity: 15
Merit: 0
Stead and slow fall of price

when will it stop
Yes, you're right stead fall of price is currently happen but my prediction is that the price will increase last week which it does and my prediction this week is that the price string up from weekend.

It's gone from $350 to $335. That's not a slow fall of price, that's noise. A slow fall of price is $100 down. JimboToronto doesn't think the price is slowly falling because he commented on the price being almost the same as yesterday. If it goes back up by $15 will you say it's slowly steadily pumping?
hero member
Activity: 1834
Merit: 566
Stead and slow fall of price

when will it stop
Yes, you're right stead fall of price is currently happen but my prediction is that the price will increase last week which it does and my prediction this week is that the price string up from weekend.
legendary
Activity: 2464
Merit: 1145
i'm watching Navy CIS: New Orleans and guess what they just talked about?

Using bitcoins to sell illegal stuff.

Adoption friends!  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
The bear is coming. Run for your lives.

unfortunately i agree

market understands now that segwit wont come

If it doesn't come because of opposition from the bigblockers, then this makes it apparent that they are not really interested in scaling and they probably never were. They just used scaling as an excuse for attempting a governance coup. So when scaling solutions were presented they didn't go with it and instead pretended to be dissatisfied opting for something else.

the explanation is much easier than this: pride.

the chinese miners have been humiliated in public with the breach of the HK-2MB-agreement and now maxwell and others expect them to cooperate? it would be seen as a public bowing infront of folks that insulted and betrayed them publicly for the last 12months. i remember here especially LukeJr that said some pretty nasty things about the chinese mining operators. so even if you look at it from an western perspective you should be easily able to understand why after all this fuck-up they refuse to cooperate. and if you go one step further and are able to understand asian culture you will even more be able to understand why (after the breach of the HK-agreement and the open insults) they are basically not able to activate segwit.

pride is some strong motivation.

even in greece.  Grin


yeah that might be a problem. People digging in their feet for their agenda instead of what's good for BTC. Yeah segwit is great but we won't let it happen because we're upset, i doubt they'll get much empathy from the community that way
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see the conversation around here has again become dominated by The Great Debate (into which I refuse to be sucked).

Meanwhile the price remains virtually unchanged since yesterday... $746USD/$1006CAD.

Bitcoin soldiers onward.
legendary
Activity: 1281
Merit: 1000
☑ ♟ ☐ ♚
ViaBTC is attempt to keep price rise in check. ViaBTC wil adopt segwit or Core will raise to 2MB, when the big players are ready for the MOON. The algo won't be changed, that's FUD  Grin
member
Activity: 95
Merit: 10
www.DirectBet.eu/Competition


End of the world wall. Demon wars.

always like this on huobi

nothing new
legendary
Activity: 2833
Merit: 1851
In order to dump coins one must have coins
legendary
Activity: 1844
Merit: 1338
XXXVII Fnord is toast without bread
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
i was wondering what kind of news would need to be used to do the old "silkroad is busted = bitcoin is dead" trick this time around. in october 2013, just before the BIG rise, this news triggered a spike downwards that was really frightening.

not sure if "china bans bitcoin" would work. my guess is it will be some news about a hardfork/split/doom.  
I think China Bans Bitcoin would fit the bill perfectly, but they would have to actually do it, like the government actually speaks and passes a law and all of the exchanges actually shut down. It fits the analogy with silk road as 'thing that was perceived to matter a great deal that really didnt'. Bitcoin forking would be another level - that's definitely something that actually matters.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
i was wondering what kind of news would need to be used to do the old "silkroad is busted = bitcoin is dead" trick this time around. in october 2013, just before the BIG rise, this news triggered a spike downwards that was really frightening.

not sure if "china bans bitcoin" would work. my guess is it will be some news about a hardfork/split/doom.   
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500


End of the world wall. Demon wars.
hero member
Activity: 659
Merit: 500
Zepher is scammer!:)
BTC will topught 780-800 within 48h from what i see.

do not be scared, buy the coins people!
It sounds like- buy my coins people- I need to sell  Cheesy Nice try. ..
ImI
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1019
The bear is coming. Run for your lives.

unfortunately i agree

market understands now that segwit wont come and instead a long an eventually devastating fight between the two camps
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
The bear is coming. Run for your lives.
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1000
the grandpa of cryptos
BTC will topught 780-800 within 48h from what i see.

do not be scared, buy the coins people!
legendary
Activity: 3388
Merit: 3514
born once atheist
This week's price is boring AF.... it goes down and comes back up a little then drop a little and up.... I need some excitement!


well then, go to vegas and bet your life savings on the roulette wheel
full member
Activity: 219
Merit: 100
Art is the triumph over chaos
This week's price is boring AF.... it goes down and comes back up a little then drop a little and up.... I need some excitement!
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