Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18444. (Read 26712856 times)

Contentious things some guy I know thinks:
-Anything less than 99% is a social consensus attack on the protocol;
-No amount of megabytes will satisfy the demands of people convinced the free world is waiting for a bump to beat a path to our door;
--the world isn't waitng to beat a path to our door;
-Something about superintelligence.

future is not malleable, just because it hasn't been written yet doesn't mean it is not predictable.


i am a deterministic existentialist

existentialism says that  we exist before our purpose, and no "god" has a "divine plan" for us, we make that "plan" up for ourselves.
- existence precedes essence

determinism says that, that the past, present, and future is identifiable as an unbreakable chain of circumstances of which no single link in such a chain could possibly be avoided or altered. so if there was a entity that knew everything about everything he could predict the future, because for any one moment there is only ONE possible physical further moment.
- The Truth

and so i say:


Existence precedes essence, but the the truth precedes all.


i am am no god, But i've seen enough, we will be moving UP there is simply no way around this.

It is a gift. We get to analyze something we haven't really seen before in a coin with a relatively high value. I bet the non-DAO bailout side will live on, in some form. Just like a losing 1MB4EVA with keccak side would live on, in some form.

Not a question of should, but "can" it? If it can and people want it to, then it should.

It's for much more than a megabyte. It's for the literal destiny of the project... and more succinctly: money.


....

You are coming across as a nitwit libertarian (nothing against normal libertarians) who expects that they have to consent to everything otherwise it does not count.  Fuck that stupid shit.  We are born into systems that have a lot of rules, and the status quo has some power.  There is no problem to disagree with the status quo and to attempt to change it, but trying to act like it does not exist comes off as pure fantasy.

Yeah, I saw your stupid ass attempts to fight the status quo likely soft fork situation in bitcoin and attempting to argue that a hardfork is preferable... additional, one-sided nonsense, fantasy and propaganda attempts.

The "we" that Adam refers to is likely just a recognition that seg wit is pretty much a done deal without any meaningful resistance.



Nope, not so crucial.. Seg Wit is pretty much a done deal, and the overwhelming majority largely agrees to it, in spite of some loud mouth and stubborn trolls in various bitcoin forums... eg. reddit   r/btc and your nonsense fantasy propaganda attempts.

You are still seeming to frame the future in terms of inevitability, and sure, after it already happens, then we can describe the future in terms of what has already happened, and the past only becomes inevitable because it already happened; however, before it actually happens, there are a lot of different trajectories that are possible, and going down one trajectory could preclude another trajectory and accordingly change history (and the future) forever.

Maybe I am talking in riddles, and maybe even preaching the obvious, but in the present, we cannot project any one future.  We have millions of possible futures, but only one of them is going to take place.

So, when we are looking at the present, and we are looking at the future possibilities, we are going to attempt to project and predict the most likely set of events, and we are going to find some issues to be more important than others.  Likely, it is not going to make a difference in respect to the bitcoin's price whether I eat beef or pork for lunch; however, it could make a difference if some big whale, such as Roger Ver, decided to cash out his total stash of bitcoins and to publicly rage quit (and invest all of it in Ether) or it would likely make a difference to bitcoin's prices if Coinbase get's ddosed and attacked and assert that they lost 500k coins.  We chose which events we believe to be more important and to give them weight, and my choosing to drink coke or pepsi also is not that important in the scheme of things.

Maybe in the long run, the above kinds of material events will kind of become a wash, but some events can cause trajectories and change history in a permanent way, and some events are results of a few individuals or a few strategically placed individuals or even the contagion of a few large institutions.

So, maybe you have highlighted some differences in our thinking because there is no way that I consider the future in some kind of fatalistic manner, even though in retrospect, it may seem as if it were obvious, after it has already happened... but it is no way obvious before hand or even in the present.. just a bundle of probabilities with some probabilities being more likely and more important than others.

This thing that's happening to that coin that shall not be named is the perfect gift. This is without a doubt a contentious hard fork; will the lesser chain continue on? Shouldn't it? Replay attacks what? Regenerated alts from genesis blocks who?
Is this in our future? For some measly megabits?

good point...

people's individual feelings toward the direction we have be forced to go along with, and how they react to this, is far too complex for me to come up with any conclusion on its effect on price. for my sanity's sake i must assume most poeple dont give a crap about the details, i assume all they care about is progress is made.

I agree the network adopting segwit and later LN is will be a historical moment in bitcoin.
segwit+LN is a fundamental shift ( way more then a 2MB HF would have been ) it WILL change the game, for the better or worst?? no way to know...

Who's we? I can assure you it's not me, I didn't sign on for this, at least not in this crufty soft-fork-via-opcode-sneak-mode form.

The critical question is whether the miners will bend the knee.  [and it will indeed be that, given the apparent likelihood that their side of the hk agreement was turned to confetti before it was even signed (the warning signs were so clear with that scuffle over adam back's title on the document... lawyers were consulted, that's for sure.)]

It will be a (the) crucial moment and decision in the history of Bitcoin.

I agree with this outlook. Regarding the poll, I think this month will end just around $675, where it is today.

the validity of the direction we have taken for scaling  ( segwit +LN ) is irrelevant. it will only become relevant to price when its released. for now all that matters for price is that we make progress in that direction. we will push higher and higher as we inch closer and closer to the release. when it is released THEN we will be in a position to evaluate its validity / usefulness, but not before.

I only have 1 problem with all this.

I think the short term is what's hard to predict. because we really do not know what cards various actors have up their sleeves.
but in the long run, all we've done here is create a huge amount of opportunities, who builds what at what time is kinda irrelevant in the long run.

its like 2MB HF and THEN Segwit
or
Segwit and then 2MB HF later.

in the long run... what the fuck does it matter?

or think of the Twins ETF, if it wasn't them that did it, do you really think no one else would of stepped up?

the past is cast in stone
the future is unavoidable
today is gift, this is why we call it the present.

if its not us that grabs the vanishing liquidity sub 700 it'll be them.

BTW, its almost 9:00am in china  

A few points...

Did you mean contentious hardfork? We should get a good understanding of how those work over the next couple days. (FWIW, I disagree with the ETH hardfork to bailout theDAO, but do think it will provide extremely valuable data as to how a network split is resolved by mining and exchange activity.)

A capability-bifurcated node network through segwit softfork is ugly, and some would say immoral. People like Mircea Popescu can and will proclaim pure segwit to segwit transactions to be a merge mined altcoin, and he won't be wrong. It further cements the idea that dramatic changes can be foisted upon the network without node consent, with only the approval of a handful of mining pool ops. Leaving regular full nodes blind to the fact that anything had changed isn't a positive imo, and it will be used in the future once the precedent is fully accepted and normalized. People who tout protocol immutability as an intrinsic value should be screaming against soft forks, yet they cheerlead them.

A successful HF to increase Bitcoin's capacity is about the most bullish scenario I can imagine, too bad it has been successfully painted with a black brush to the point we may never see one in Bitcoin. After all, anything that could be done in a clean HF with full node consent can be SF'd in a "creative" way with only miner consent.

I don't get your last statement, we stay bullish for at least a year while we wait for the hub and spoke gift card BTC-IOU to emerge into functional form? Do you sell if/when it crosses the vapor barrier?

We know that 0.13 rc1 is minutes away from release, and it won't contain segwit... so the network operates at capacity for how much longer? Where do these new users and use cases fit in to provide a bullish scenario? Are we just banking on world financial armageddon to happen so scared plebs send their savings on wires to exchanges and become a new generation of baghodlers while we buy boats and lambos?


You got any arguments? or just name calling and random numbers pulled from your rear?

Source: A Gentlescholar's Guide To Sarcastic Clapping, Deerface et al.

I'll take this as a form of humor.


Many intelligent investment circles (or maybe referred to as smart money... just kidding)... refer to this methodology, and warren buffet is known to preach such a technique, including his famous statement about buying when there is "blood in the streets."






Our overall approach may not be too different, even though our tweaking by learning may end up being applied a little bit differently based on our reading of the market.  Of course we are not going to want to buy a whole bunch if we are fairly certain that the price is going to continue to go down in the short term, nor are we going to want to sell a bunch if we are fairly certain that the price is going to go up in the short term.  Yet, we also may not want to miss some smaller swings, either... yet these are kind of judgement calls.  For example, if the price appears to be moving up quickly and seems to be on a 10% upwards trajectory, I still would likely to sell smaller amounts every 2% or so and then maybe bigger chucks when it reaches close to a 10% adjustment.  Trying to play a little bit of both, and each of us is going to come to different conclusions regarding how to approach these kinds of movements, yet I personally am not competing with anyone to make more profits, I am just trying to feel comfortable with myself, even if I leave a bit on the table, here and there, which actually happens from time to time (actually regularly).



I remember that sale of yours to be around $420, and yes, that is an example of a preemptive strike, and I find nothing really wrong with making those kinds of preemptive strike decisions, if that makes you feel better under whatever is the then current market conditions that you perceive.




I think that I am a lot more comfortable with an ongoing analysis of the situation, and trying to predict a year in bitcoinlandia is nearly impossible because we really do not know what cards various actors have up their sleeves, if any.

Take for example the most recent price splurge above $500.  Each of us who are watching BTC prices and how things play out kind of had our theories regarding whether prices would go above $500 and how it could possibly play out.  For me, it has kind of played out how I was thinking, but at the same time, it is quite a bit different with how I was thinking as well, so I have to adjust my thinking regarding how it actually played out versus what I had previously been thinking.

Previously, I thought that once BTC prices went passed $500, it would kind of shoot up passed $600 and maybe even passed $700 and then likely correct back down below $500... I mean the way that the price performance played out was quite a bit different from what I expected, I went up on lower volume and it took longer to get up, and then the corrections were not as severe (at least not yet), and in the end, even though BTC prices did not reach into the $800s, the way that it played out was much more bullish than I had anticipated... so I needed to adjust some of my thinking.. and sure, it is still possible that the price could correct below $500, but the odds are seeming greater and greater, and the costs (and resistance) in which to achieve such an objective to get prices into the sub- $500s seems to be much higher... I try not to see bitcoin's future prices and the bitcoin world in terms of absolutes (until after something maybe have already happened), but like you, I do try to weigh probabilities and go with trends - even though my conclusions regarding probabilities may not be the same as yours and therefore my actions are going to be affected.

So in respect to the next year, we gotta just see how it plays out and to continue to make our predictions based on how things are playing out, but in a general sense I agree with you that there are a lot of BTC fundamentals in place at the current moment to allow for the likelihood that a bull market could continue to endure for a year or even longer... could be slow or could be fast or could be a combination of ongoing and onward bullish and upwards price pressures that the bears are unable to stop without expending more capital than they want to expend.

it's heading to $888, try not to get in the way too much.

P.S ... 2 pages of Lightning network FUD, what happened the bullyjoeallen sock got neutered?

look at that relatively low volume high movement up hourly candle....
buy signals dont get much more clear than that.

I invented buy on the way down and sell on the way up.
and for the most part this is exactly what i have done too.
by adding a health dose of speculation, i've tried to perfect this technique and only start buying / selling toward the end of a trend.

a few months ago I fucked up and SOLD a rather large chunk of my stash, preemptively pricing in the seemingly high possibility of a continuous hardfork. what a big fat mistake that turned out to be... oh well... anyway, my current speculation suggests the bull trend will continue for at least 1 more year ( just waiting for LN to be released  ). As far as i'm concerned devs could keep working on this goal for 3 years, thats FINE BY ME! 

I know several folks whose problems would be solved.
We may not need a bigger hammer, but letting a bunch of clever kids glue some wings onto the one we got won't do it either. (so LN is THE WINGS ON OUR HAMMER)
I can come up with silly sounding slogans too. (other than the begging "LN is the solution in need of a problem":p)
But you can't fix stupid? Or is it paper covers rock?