Can someone explain to me why the ETF fanbois think that fourth time's the charm for a Bitcoin ETF? What exactly will the difference be this time?
The question of the benefit of ETFs has been discussed a lot and we can hardly say anything new. But if I have to summarize, the discussion is divided into 2: negative, often overflowing into pure FUD, and positive, often overflowing into unrealistic expectations of matching and even surpassing gold within a few months. To me, the truth is that the benefit of establishing Bitcoin as a stable global financial asset requires spot ETFs. The rise in price will be just the consequence of both FOMO and the scarcity. Let's take just one example, with which I think all of us will agree. People and companies who cannot or do not know how to buy bitcoins, or which exchanges are reliable, will not hesitate to use ETFs. When this ETF is bought for the long term, which is usually done with a spot rather than a futures ETF, the number of real hodlers will increase. The fear that the big companies will have more control over Bitcoin is also understandable, but we can't take at face value the pure FUD that it will kill growth like it did with gold. For enlightened OGs like us, the reasons are clear and need no pointing out.
The other question, for me at least, is more interesting and with an unclear answer. Will this next wave of ETFs be stifled by Gary as it was in the past? Basically, there isn't that much of a difference between the previous ETF offerings and Blackrock's, so its approval is far from certain. Although the ratio I think was 575:1, it doesn't really matter that much, in my opinion. From the point of view of using a regulated exchange, there is no change, so there should be no approval.
But... With good will from Gary, Blackrock can be given a chance as they have filed for some form of surveillance with Nasdaq. The problem is that this is only a proposal, not an actual agreement. It is not clear if Coinbase will agree and they will enter into one. If that happens this year, given other factors like pressure from senators and presidential candidates, I think Gary will bend and give permission. But everything is in the balance. Blackrock definitely rushed with the clear goal of catching the upcoming bull run after the halving. They also have an extremely strong lobby, so according to some analysts, in order to move forward so sharply, they have some kind of prior approval from Gary. But overall, if one has to estimate the chances, I think the chances of approval are no higher than 40%. However, if a surveillance agreement is announced meanwhile, that probability will become at least 80%. Hence all this buzz and the corresponding wave of ETF offerings, as well as the significant drop in GBTC's negative premium.
