Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 18867. (Read 26707093 times)

Sweet Jesus, support is gone, $447

CW dumping his coinz

Fundamentals.

Any reason behind this dump?

Onoes! 452 Down we go

4th time is the charm, topped nicely 

There's no deadline of a few weeks.

We could hover in the price territory of $420 to $460 for a couple of months, and still have a bull run after that.  We are not in a bad space, and this bull run is not on a schedule.

Yeah, sure I would like it to happen sooner, but we really are not a bad place all throughout the lower to mid $400s.

But there will be a lot of sell walls that will prevent further price increase so an effort buying will be needed.

The 1D chart looks insanely bullish still.

My only and continuing concern is the 32 million dollars in longs. Though to be fair the majority opened up lower and are in profit.

A concerted move above 471 is going to be needed in the next week or two or this Halving will be a flop.

Oh a small dump.
$460 and 3000CNY seems to be the hurdle for now.

Good. A bear trap can't work without bears.

67% votes above $480 on 31 May?

Probably only because of block halving. The opposite direction is more likely then so I voted $430.

a 300$ retest would be as likely as a $500 breakthrough.

but when bulls are starting to get overconfident, bears tend to come out of the woods.

TERA spotted

Mewn

sheesh, bears, always trying to nickel and dime some fiat out of junk 

get with the program or get #r3kt

>480 at end of May, 63.5% agree, let's go baby

First, nice to see you posting again, and here to make some bear predictions.  I think the last time you appeared, you were way off on your predictions... hahahahahaha...

Second, I think that you are reading too much into any kind of claim that the Chinese are leading or that the west is following the Chinese.... yeah, of course there is some symbiosis in the relationship between exchanges and attempts at pushing the price, but it seems that at least a couple of years that Western exchanges have taken chinese volume with a grain of salt.. not completely, but at least to a large enough extent that western exchanges do not tend to blindly follow the chinese exchanges as may have disproportionately occurred at various times in late 2013 and through much of 2014 (at least early 2014).

Third, you seem to be quite pie in the sky coming around calling for $300s, which, when you phrase it like that, seems to imply that you are suggesting lower $300s, otherwise you would have said sub $400, which means the same thing but creates a bit of a different impression regarding the extent of your bearishness....  Anyhow, if you had been paying attention, there have been several significant and meaningful attempts at bringing prices below $400 in the past few months, and really such attempts have been relatively short-lived and even moreso unsuccessful... Surely, sub $400 is possible, but it seems that it will be quite difficult to make corrections below $420 for any meaningful amount of time and absent some fairly robust FUCD spreading (which definitely is not out of the question in bitcoinlandia). For example, if a major exchange ran off with several hundred thousand coins, that kind of shenanigans could bring prices below $400 for a while, depending on circumstances.

I understand what you are saying when you assert that it appears that I may have become more bullish in the past several months; however, really, in spite of the apparent inconsistencies, I don't believe that I have become more bullish than previously without some kind of actual reason based on actual market performance (at least, not in any significant or apparently contradictory way).

More or less, I think about it like this.  There is almost no way that the performance of bitcoin is completely mathematical (sure there is quite a bit of math involved in terms of network effects and reliability of the infrastructure etc) because it largely involves the behaviors (actions and reactions) of human beings.  So even though some things in bitcoin can be determined by math, we cannot really know how the behavior of human beings is going to play out and affect bitcoin in both positive and negative ways.

Look, we PM'd each other in September 2015, a week or two before bitcoin prices took off into a 2x bull run, in which none of us could have really anticipated, and also after nearly 2 years of downward price manipulation.  Those factors, and the place that we are at the moment, affect viewpoint - short term and long term and the various measures that may need to be taken in order to protect one's position (and investment).

There have been a lot of decent developments since September 2015, and also some real significant tests of the downside of bitcoin's price under those recent scenarios.  

Actually, when I PM'd you in September 2015, I gave you very specific probability ranges for various prices in the 5 year projection and the 10 year projection, and in my most recent post, I asserted "decent and reasonable possibilities of $25k to $250k".  Anyhow, I believe the outline of my September 2015 predictions and viewpoints can serve as a very decent thought experiment, and yeah, surely I would not mind filling those in again with actual guestimates of my feelings and viewpoint as of today.  If you want a follow-up post, then I will do it.. I think that it is a very good topic for this thread and for others to chime in if they want.

Wow that looks like a really good chart right? Looks like the price has been 'breaking out' for over a month as it nudges closer and closer against resistance. Sentiments have been tremendously universally bullish for months as bitcoin makes headlines all over the news and the chart looks just like 2012 right before the 2012 halving. Every thread on the forum is positive and predicts the level of the next rise. Meanwhile, CHINA is still the market leader. What could go wrong, right? The BFX order book bids are paper thin and BFX longs are maxxed out at 32M. Each time this margin level was reached in the past was when bulls were buying in to what looked like a big breakout (such as in July 2014) but inflected into the next decline instead. I'd say there is a distinctive chance of another decline to the 300s before any meaningful rise. I'm not betting anything on that though.