The halving is priced in or we will see a huge pump? How many percent are your bets?
My bet is nothing much happens. There's a whole lot of noise taking up attention elsewhere.
I'll be VERY surprised if we'll have this stable market all the way up to the halving in supply. I mean how accurate do you think they price these things in?
Based on your sig, If Bitcoin is not allowed to grow, won't price decline? I mean it seems impossible to have price appreciation without growth. There is no way to stop growth that won't also stop appreciation.
"And it leads to an obvious but crazy conclusion: if decentralisation is what makes Bitcoin good, and growth threatens decentralisation, then Bitcoin should not be allowed to grow." -Mike Hearn
Yes, yes, and again yes. Until better solution is found, growth should not be achieved simply at the cost of centralization!
Quote is from Hearn's rage quit. By growth he's talking about giving free access to something that is limited in supply by design. Think it's obvious that it won't work. Make a block 80MB and if it's free (or almost free) to fill up someone will. Utilization can continue to grow even if it costs few cents extra for a space in a block.
I know damn well where it's from, but you didn't answer my question. Utilization can only grow until it hits the limit, at which point it can't continue to grow. In the process, of course I understand that low value transactions will be replaced by relatively higher value transactions that merit higher fees, but there is still a limit and because of the correlation between price and utilization, there is a limit on price. We can debate what that limit is, but it's there. There is a price beyond which a network congestion failure is an inevitable certainty if capacity is constant. This should be so obvious, it bewilders me that I even have to say it. What is the cognitive disconnect of smallblockers who think capacity limits aren't also price limits?
Look, if price keeps going up, it's going to attract new users, traders, speculators etc. This is obvious. There is no way to stop it. The growth will continue to come until something prevents them from participating, like a physical inability to get their transactions processed. What else could stop them? The ONLY thing that I think would do it is if the price stopped rising. Do you have another idea?
So either we will eventually get a network congestion failure or a complete halt in price appreciation without additional capacity. This is not an opinion. This is a logical certainty.
