its miscommunication
segwit is not a blocksize increase, it doesn't add more load to the network, in the same way a real blocksize increase ( and subsequent rise in TX vol) does.
when i say 2MB i mean 2MB
when you say 4MB you mean 2MB + segwit
it's all very confusing
No , it clearly is an example of misunderstanding segwit. There are two merkle trees that will exist with the signatures split off on their own. Both merkle trees exist in the same block. There aren't two blocks that miners will start mining but single blocks containing 2 merkle trees at a rate of 1 every 10 minutes on average. The blocks will indeed be an effective 1.7-2MB immediately for all users who use segwit enabled wallets.
Segwit will add more data to the blockchain just like increasing the blocksize.
But lets but aside the technical details or semantics for a second. The real question is are you asking if an effective 1.7-2MB Blocksize(done by raising maxBlockSize variable or Segwit) will centralize mining bitcoin? Or are you asking if an effective 3.7-4MB (done by raising maxBlockSize variable or Segwit) will centralize bitcoin more.
The answer to those two questions is yes to both. The evidence is clear that even with a 1MB blocksize limit node count has precipitately dropped over the years , especially after blocksize averages exceeded 0.5MB. This trend has only temporarily reversed itself by classic supporters spinning up cloud nodes which constitutes a sybil attack because most of them are non economic nodes not being used by active wallets. I am fine making a small sacrifice and increasing to 2Mb despite this because we need to balance other concerns like adoption perception and giving more time for some wallet providers who have taken over a year thus far to role out changes like dynamic fee market adjustments (slow bastards)...
i can't be bothered to read & understand this technical mumbo jumbo.
in your view is what you are saying bullish or bearish?