Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19166. (Read 26608075 times)
February 27, 2016, 02:04:46 PM
LTC
February 27, 2016, 02:02:01 PM
...
What do you think will happen longterm (*10 to 20 years)?
What do you think will happen longterm (*10 to 20 years)?
10-20 years is far away. China might get stricter environmental/Bitcoin mining regulations.
... and Bitcoin mining will become centralized somewhere else. Maybe next to some incredibly cheap wildass Libertarian nuclear reactor, spewing neutrons all over Somalia, with only worries being radiation effects on silicon
Just like everything else, Bitcoin mining started out with privateers/wildcatters/nutjobs/visionaries, & ended up as an industry: doing stuff to make money.
The problem, for me, is money != BTC for miners; they can *sell* BTC, which means they're not committed to BTC as much as the hodlers are.
If, for instance, another SHA256 coin came around that was more profitable to mine, or, if some government paid them to mess with Bitcoin (mind you, paid them in !BTC, so reward doesn't become worthless when BTC tanks), they'll *definitely* do that. Or exert leverage on hodlers (extort) to not do it.
February 27, 2016, 02:00:50 PM
February 27, 2016, 01:41:57 PM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
"As someone who comes from a physics and engineering background, over the long run I'm not concerned with mining centralization. Physics will ensure it is distributed."
"As a result, the mining centralization we see in Greenland and large data centers becomes enormously unprofitable. Any centralization of mining would REQUIRE heat recycling, which severely limits data centers and necessitates distribution unless you introduce heat pumps, which also increase cost."
--submitted 1 year ago
How's that decentralization goin' thus far?
The guy doesn't understand that mining is centralized in China, not Greenland.
He doesn't understand that it's economically idiotic to heat your hot water with miners, because miners need *cold water* going into the waterblocks -- recirculating hot water for cooling ain't cooling, it ain't gonna do much. If hot water was used at a constant rate, 24/7, he might have a better point, but it don't work like that.
Regardless, *mining is concentrated around cheap electricity,* not where it's cold (Greenland).
The fact that silicon might hit quantum dead end "round the year 2024" ain't doing diddly for us now.
TL;DR: don't buy his "physics and engineering background," he doesn't think things through.
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.
P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes
Well, the heaters are just one thought. But I think there is more to the thought of commoditization (e.g. longer and longer development circles for ASICs). BTW: I don't see mining centralization as a big problem. There is always competition by other crypto-currencies to balancethings in Bitcoin.
Let's get to the heat waste discussion: Maybe it would be possible to gain back some energy by using Stirling engines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
>I don't see mining centralization as a big problem.
In that case, the point's moot. I don't see it as a catastrophic problem, but it's a serious one. One that effectively nulls any pretensions to Bitcoin being "decentralized."
>heaters are just one thought
It's an awful thought. It's fail.
>Stirling engines
Not sure if srs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_engine#Efficiency <==and that's just what's theoretically possible.
Have you also considered this?
Put it this way: Let's say Chinese coal-fired Electricity is 2 pennies per kWh, and yours is 4 pennies. Your Stirling engine manages to convert 3% of wasted heat back into electricity. Yeah.
Bonus: if Stirling heat reclamation made sense, Chinese megaminers would use it too. They'd make the thing, too -- you'll buy it from them
Seriously tho, read the laws of thermodynamics, it's straightforward stuff.
I can see, why it makes no sense for the chinese miners today. However, I expect margins to become zero/negative in the forseeable* future.
What do you think will happen longterm (*10 to 20 years)?
even if some engine can convert heat into electricity maybe by peltier, i dont think its economically feasible to do .
Nitinol springs that operate with heat difference, would probably be veeeery economically feasible.
February 27, 2016, 01:21:21 PM
I must say while the discussion above is very interesting, it would also be good to see more discussion on bitcoin price movement. Because this is the original purpose of this thread..
February 27, 2016, 01:20:44 PM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
"As someone who comes from a physics and engineering background, over the long run I'm not concerned with mining centralization. Physics will ensure it is distributed."
"As a result, the mining centralization we see in Greenland and large data centers becomes enormously unprofitable. Any centralization of mining would REQUIRE heat recycling, which severely limits data centers and necessitates distribution unless you introduce heat pumps, which also increase cost."
--submitted 1 year ago
How's that decentralization goin' thus far?
The guy doesn't understand that mining is centralized in China, not Greenland.
He doesn't understand that it's economically idiotic to heat your hot water with miners, because miners need *cold water* going into the waterblocks -- recirculating hot water for cooling ain't cooling, it ain't gonna do much. If hot water was used at a constant rate, 24/7, he might have a better point, but it don't work like that.
Regardless, *mining is concentrated around cheap electricity,* not where it's cold (Greenland).
The fact that silicon might hit quantum dead end "round the year 2024" ain't doing diddly for us now.
TL;DR: don't buy his "physics and engineering background," he doesn't think things through.
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.
P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes
Well, the heaters are just one thought. But I think there is more to the thought of commoditization (e.g. longer and longer development circles for ASICs). BTW: I don't see mining centralization as a big problem. There is always competition by other crypto-currencies to balancethings in Bitcoin.
Let's get to the heat waste discussion: Maybe it would be possible to gain back some energy by using Stirling engines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
>I don't see mining centralization as a big problem.
In that case, the point's moot. I don't see it as a catastrophic problem, but it's a serious one. One that effectively nulls any pretensions to Bitcoin being "decentralized."
>heaters are just one thought
It's an awful thought. It's fail.
>Stirling engines
Not sure if srs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_engine#Efficiency <==and that's just what's theoretically possible.
Have you also considered this?
Put it this way: Let's say Chinese coal-fired Electricity is 2 pennies per kWh, and yours is 4 pennies. Your Stirling engine manages to convert 3% of wasted heat back into electricity. Yeah.
Bonus: if Stirling heat reclamation made sense, Chinese megaminers would use it too. They'd make the thing, too -- you'll buy it from them
Seriously tho, read the laws of thermodynamics, it's straightforward stuff.
I can see, why it makes no sense for the chinese miners today. However, I expect margins to become zero/negative in the forseeable* future.
What do you think will happen longterm (*10 to 20 years)?
even if some engine can convert heat into electricity maybe by peltier, i dont think its economically feasible to do .
February 27, 2016, 01:15:21 PM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
"As someone who comes from a physics and engineering background, over the long run I'm not concerned with mining centralization. Physics will ensure it is distributed."
"As a result, the mining centralization we see in Greenland and large data centers becomes enormously unprofitable. Any centralization of mining would REQUIRE heat recycling, which severely limits data centers and necessitates distribution unless you introduce heat pumps, which also increase cost."
--submitted 1 year ago
How's that decentralization goin' thus far?
The guy doesn't understand that mining is centralized in China, not Greenland.
He doesn't understand that it's economically idiotic to heat your hot water with miners, because miners need *cold water* going into the waterblocks -- recirculating hot water for cooling ain't cooling, it ain't gonna do much. If hot water was used at a constant rate, 24/7, he might have a better point, but it don't work like that.
Regardless, *mining is concentrated around cheap electricity,* not where it's cold (Greenland).
The fact that silicon might hit quantum dead end "round the year 2024" ain't doing diddly for us now.
TL;DR: don't buy his "physics and engineering background," he doesn't think things through.
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.
P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes
Well, the heaters are just one thought. But I think there is more to the thought of commoditization (e.g. longer and longer development circles for ASICs). BTW: I don't see mining centralization as a big problem. There is always competition by other crypto-currencies to balancethings in Bitcoin.
Let's get to the heat waste discussion: Maybe it would be possible to gain back some energy by using Stirling engines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
>I don't see mining centralization as a big problem.
In that case, the point's moot. I don't see it as a catastrophic problem, but it's a serious one. One that effectively nulls any pretensions to Bitcoin being "decentralized."
>heaters are just one thought
It's an awful thought. It's fail.
>Stirling engines
Not sure if srs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_engine#Efficiency <==and that's just what's theoretically possible.
Have you also considered this?
Put it this way: Let's say Chinese coal-fired Electricity is 2 pennies per kWh, and yours is 4 pennies. Your Stirling engine manages to convert 3% of wasted heat back into electricity. Yeah.
Bonus: if Stirling heat reclamation made sense, Chinese megaminers would use it too. They'd make the thing, too -- you'll buy it from them
Seriously tho, read the laws of thermodynamics, it's straightforward stuff.
I can see, why it makes no sense for the chinese miners today. However, I expect margins to become zero/negative in the forseeable* future.
What do you think will happen longterm (*10 to 20 years)?
February 27, 2016, 01:01:14 PM
Is China going to drive another big BTC jump? Some think it is.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/why-hedge-fund-manager-who-made-killing-subprime-buying-bitcoin
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-26/why-hedge-fund-manager-who-made-killing-subprime-buying-bitcoin
Quote
So what is one trade that can be put on to bet on further Chinese devaluation (or outright economic collapse) with limited downside, with unlimited upside, and one which is guaranteed to be profitable if and when the local Chinese depositor herd gets out of Yuan en masse after the next 10%, 20%, 50% or more devaluation and rushes into bitcoin? Simple: do precisely what we said in September, and precisely what Corriente's Mark Hart is saying now: buy bitcoin, because once the Chinese buying frenzy is unleashed, and $25 trillion in deposits scramble to be packed into a product with a $6.5 billion current market cap (but only when the price of a bitcoin is $430; the market cap does rise to $25 trillion if every bitcoin is worth $1.6 million) one thing will happen: the price of bitcoin will soar exponentially.
Holler if ya hear me! February 27, 2016, 01:00:47 PM
February 27, 2016, 12:54:13 PM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
"As someone who comes from a physics and engineering background, over the long run I'm not concerned with mining centralization. Physics will ensure it is distributed."
"As a result, the mining centralization we see in Greenland and large data centers becomes enormously unprofitable. Any centralization of mining would REQUIRE heat recycling, which severely limits data centers and necessitates distribution unless you introduce heat pumps, which also increase cost."
--submitted 1 year ago
How's that decentralization goin' thus far?
The guy doesn't understand that mining is centralized in China, not Greenland.
He doesn't understand that it's economically idiotic to heat your hot water with miners, because miners need *cold water* going into the waterblocks -- recirculating hot water for cooling ain't cooling, it ain't gonna do much. If hot water was used at a constant rate, 24/7, he might have a better point, but it don't work like that.
Regardless, *mining is concentrated around cheap electricity,* not where it's cold (Greenland).
The fact that silicon might hit quantum dead end "round the year 2024" ain't doing diddly for us now.
TL;DR: don't buy his "physics and engineering background," he doesn't think things through.
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.
P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes
Well, the heaters are just one thought. But I think there is more to the thought of commoditization (e.g. longer and longer development circles for ASICs). BTW: I don't see mining centralization as a big problem. There is always competition by other crypto-currencies to balancethings in Bitcoin.
Let's get to the heat waste discussion: Maybe it would be possible to gain back some energy by using Stirling engines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
>I don't see mining centralization as a big problem.
In that case, the point's moot. I don't see it as a catastrophic problem, but it's a serious one. One that effectively nulls any pretensions to Bitcoin being "decentralized."
>heaters are just one thought
It's an awful thought. It's fail.
>Stirling engines
Not sure if srs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_engine#Efficiency <==and that's just what's theoretically possible.
Have you also considered this?
Put it this way: Let's say Chinese coal-fired Electricity is 2 pennies per kWh, and yours is 4 pennies. Your Stirling engine manages to convert 3% of wasted heat back into electricity. Yeah.
Bonus: if Stirling heat reclamation made sense, Chinese megaminers would use it too. They'd make the thing, too -- you'll buy it from them
Seriously tho, read the laws of thermodynamics, it's straightforward stuff.
February 27, 2016, 12:37:53 PM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
"As someone who comes from a physics and engineering background, over the long run I'm not concerned with mining centralization. Physics will ensure it is distributed."
"As a result, the mining centralization we see in Greenland and large data centers becomes enormously unprofitable. Any centralization of mining would REQUIRE heat recycling, which severely limits data centers and necessitates distribution unless you introduce heat pumps, which also increase cost."
--submitted 1 year ago
How's that decentralization goin' thus far?
The guy doesn't understand that mining is centralized in China, not Greenland.
He doesn't understand that it's economically idiotic to heat your hot water with miners, because miners need *cold water* going into the waterblocks -- recirculating hot water for cooling ain't cooling, it ain't gonna do much. If hot water was used at a constant rate, 24/7, he might have a better point, but it don't work like that.
Regardless, *mining is concentrated around cheap electricity,* not where it's cold (Greenland).
The fact that silicon might hit quantum dead end "round the year 2024" ain't doing diddly for us now.
TL;DR: don't buy his "physics and engineering background," he doesn't think things through.
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.
P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes
Well, the heaters are just one thought. But I think there is more to the thought of commoditization (e.g. longer and longer development circles for ASICs). BTW: I don't see mining centralization as a big problem. There is always competition by other crypto-currencies to balancethings in Bitcoin.
Let's get to the heat waste discussion: Maybe it would be possible to gain back some energy by using Stirling engines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stirling_engine
PSA: outbreak is imminent...
February 27, 2016, 12:37:29 PM
Waiting ...
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.
P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes
...
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
...If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.
P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes
February 27, 2016, 12:22:02 PM
as well as f*cked up code that actually gives them a competitive advantage for crappy bandwidth (selfish mining).
Explain
February 27, 2016, 12:12:50 PM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
Mining concentration isn't solely a product of unequal access to hardware and economies of scale. China's electricity and labor cost advantages contribute, as well as f*cked up code that actually gives them a competitive advantage for crappy bandwidth (selfish mining). The alliance between miners and Core ensures this will likely continue unless and until Classic or something like it gets node supermajority. That's a low probability outcome and a dangerous bet, IMHO.
February 27, 2016, 12:06:55 PM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
"As someone who comes from a physics and engineering background, over the long run I'm not concerned with mining centralization. Physics will ensure it is distributed."
"As a result, the mining centralization we see in Greenland and large data centers becomes enormously unprofitable. Any centralization of mining would REQUIRE heat recycling, which severely limits data centers and necessitates distribution unless you introduce heat pumps, which also increase cost."
--submitted 1 year ago
How's that decentralization goin' thus far?
The guy doesn't understand that mining is centralized in China, not Greenland.
He doesn't understand that it's economically idiotic to heat your hot water with miners, because miners need *cold water* going into the waterblocks -- recirculating hot water for cooling ain't cooling, it ain't gonna do much. If hot water was used at a constant rate, 24/7, he might have a better point, but it don't work like that.
Regardless, *mining is concentrated around cheap electricity,* not where it's cold (Greenland).
The fact that silicon might hit quantum dead end "round the year 2024" ain't doing diddly for us now.
TL;DR: don't buy his "physics and engineering background," he doesn't think things through.
P.S. If you wanna talk about particulars of utilizing waste heat, I'll be glad to.
P.P.S. LOL, HE'S the bro behind "That is why we are building a bitcoin miner that fits inside a water heater."
I remember when IceDrill was selling us stories about their farm providing heat for apartment complexes
February 27, 2016, 12:00:49 PM
February 27, 2016, 11:57:48 AM
^that govy shill never stops spewing his shit all over the place uh?
debunking all the conspiracies and pushing for bitcoin fork along with the beanies babies..
how about you pay a visit to MMM forums and take a break from here, you seems quite nervous lately < snip>
debunking all the conspiracies and pushing for bitcoin fork along with the beanies babies..
how about you pay a visit to MMM forums and take a break from here, you seems quite nervous lately < snip>
Didn't hear you, what?
February 27, 2016, 11:57:21 AM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
If I remember right, there is even a paper written on this topic. But for the start, this should work: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2o71hh/physics_and_economics_will_distributed_mining_im/
February 27, 2016, 11:43:27 AM
^^I'm sure you're right, I'm not talking about the price.
February 27, 2016, 11:36:51 AM
...
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
OMG - you envision a fee market (long before it's neccessary), but you can not see the commoditization of mining equipment hence re-decentralization of mining!?
I don't understand what you mean. Explain?
You can run a farm on a mobile broadband connection if you're mining on a pool. And that won't change.
If there are cell towers 200 miles from Gnome, Alaska, I am not aware of it.
...
Mobile broadband was probably used as in "slow."
Quick search tells me that there are at least 2 internet providers in Nome, Alaska.
In my (unlerned) opinion, "decentralization" is no longer an issue, that bird has flown.
If we can't again achieve distributed mining, then the only thing left for me to do is try to find the best possible exit point to divest.
We are a gnat to the PRC. If we ever grow to the size of a horsefly, we will get swatted and we've given them the best possible flyswatter: >50% of mining hardware.
For me, that exit point was a long time ago.
You may easily be right, but the pumpmonkeys are doing their thing right now, and I think I can do a little better than $450. There's a lot of momentum.
Jump to: