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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19225. (Read 26608346 times)

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legendary
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Quote
EDIT: actually, maybe LN might have some effect on money velocity in the future, by allowing (especially by machines) much more and faster transactions.

ding, ding, its taken a while but finally some are starting to "get it" ... LN will supercharge bitcoin monetary velocity, instant TX ... MV = PQ

that's not bitcoin velocity that's LN venosity, you can back LN with any system it dosn't need to be Bitcoin, the fees that get paid to LN, don't go to miners who secure the network, they fo to the LN node operators.

you are just plain wrong, likely mis-informed by the company you keep. The necessary LN bitcoin TXs that open and close channels will be immediately identifiable by the bitcoin miners who can demand as high fees as they feel necessary to provide their precious adjudication services for the LN.

There is most likely no problem with fees leaving bitcoin for LN, it just some more FUD you are spreading like "the LN routing problem" bull made up shit stories. Just stop it if you don't know what you're talking about.

You should start preparing Bitcoin users for these "bitcoin miners who can demand as high fees as they feel necessary" to write to the limited blocchain. Limiting Blocksize and having orders of magnitude of growth off blocchain is going to force blockchain fees up very high as rewards diminish. (if LN even bothers to be backed by bitcoin to the bitter end.)


fee will remain at like 0.05-0.10$  indefinitely.

@Adam no they won't, this is where the fees come from, see MoA he's just not estimating what they would need to be to support Bitcoin security, it will be set by a centralized authority who will estimate ho much miners should get for their service.  
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There is still a huge amount of upward momentum in this market, judging by the moving averages.  The problem is, if we continue on this trajectory, blocks will fill first, then fees will double.

With fees like the current ones, it is actually a miracle that 1MB (or 1.7+) that blocks aren't fuller than 800kb on average. It's every spammers dream.

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Then fees will quadruple, octuple, etc.

You are counting spam txs, dice / microgambling, etc as transactions that are willing to pay 2x/4x/8x, thus there's the first error of your reasoning.

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until even the mathematincally challenged pumpmonkeys start to extrapolate what this means. Even though fees are still cheap, they will be only so for a very short period of time.

We've been hearing this crap since last summer. Fees don't go up because legit txs are way below the 1mb average and the rest is always topped off with spam that goes in by paying as low as it can.

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we have the capacity for a half million active users at most. Even if we ALL go away and get replaced by high rollers doing drug deals or speculating on the halving or whatever, and even if SegWit almost doubles the capacity, then what? Things just stagnate until we go through another two year clusterfuck to kick the can again? Rinse and repeat?

and what if through some miracle we get through all of that with flying colors and market cap goes to 100 Billion. Do you think the PBoC and the Communist Party of China will be happy with that and just let it continue to grow?

You are on a FUD-roll there, aren't you?

1. You are totally overlooking the Bitcoin-store-of-value aspect, relating marketcap with tx capacity. How many online tx/sec can gold do? Yes, that's precisely ZERO.

2. How many RL gold txs occur daily and where? There is no country with gold as its currency. The only places where gold is traded for money are failed states, countries with huge devaluation or hyperinflation, or, mining cities (take 300oz gold, give me the bulldozer). The vast amount of gold trading takes place in electronic platforms that are trading fictional amounts of gold.

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I'm starting to think the best way for me to liquidate my stash is just to sell a coin a week for however many years it takes, regardless of whether the price goes up or down.  The objective of traders is to make money, of course, but the purpose of traders is SUPPOSED to be to function as liquidity providers who reduce volatility.

The problem as I see it is that

"...if I say that I sold, how can I continue selling FUD on the forum?" As others posters said, sell and move on - if you have anything that is. You were threatening to sell in the 200's, 300's, 400's, etc.

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What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.

Again zero consideration for the impact of competitive money (devaluating FIAT vs scarce bitcoin with diminishing inflation).

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  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  Even if Core changes their own governance rules to ratify this roundtable agreement, scaling may be slower than halvings.   Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  At some point, Bitcoin may hit stall speed and enter into an unrecoverable dive.  What scares the shit out of me is this may have already happened.  27 months since the ATH, we're trading at <50%. 

1. Forgive BTC for going from 10$ to 1000$+ and needing to catch its breath.

2. Scaling is insured in terms of money transacted, even if tx/s remain constant (which they won't - due to the roadmap). If you replace 100 transactions of 0.1$ with 100 transactions of 1$, you've scaled the transaction volume of money 10 times. If you replace them again with 10$ txs, you've gone upwards by 100x.

At something like 2000 txs/block, right now, you can choose to buy 2000 boxes of chewing gums for practically zero savings over traditional payment means, or you can choose to make high value payments, that will save you tens/hundreds/thousands of dollars in bank fees per transaction - and at which point a fee like even 1$ may be ridiculously low. The other day I got something like 250$ in paypal and from my paypal account to my hand I had already lost >20$ due to paypal fees, currency exchange fees, wire fees etc. Again: 20 fucking dollars. And people (from the FUD camp) are like "ohhhhh no, fees are expensive in Bitcoin because... it ain't totally free, I still need to pay 2-3 cents... the world will end and adoption will come to a halt if we have to pay more". Seriously? You mean people would prefer to lose 20-50-100$ in fees instead of losing ...0.something$ in Bitcoin? For real?

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Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking

You are welcome.
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...
you are just plain wrong, likely mis-informed by the company you keep. The necessary LN bitcoin TXs that open and close channels will be immediately identifiable by the bitcoin miners who can demand as high fees as they feel necessary to provide their precious adjudication services for the LN. ...

Interesting point. I wonder why they choose not to up their fees now? You should let them in on this cool thing you've just discovered, they might cut you in on teh profitz Huh
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...
1) They don't effect the velocity (v). They effect the quantity (M).  So because MV=PQ, a decrease in M MUST be compensated by a proportional increase in V in order for the equation to balance out. If it doesn't, then either price or quantity (or both) on the other side must adjust.

But the quantity of BTC doesn't decrease (it's the sum total of all BTC mined to date). The rate of increase is reduced, but the quantity keeps increasing.

legendary
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Bitcoin/USD 3-Day chart.

Warming up main engines.




I'm a bit afraid by your chart... I shouldn't have oppened a short no?



ahahah!

Well two solutions:
1/ markets goes down for a 420 correction and I win
2/ market breaks the 445 then I close short and open a long twice larger.

Win win cause if it breaks the 445 it'll break the 450 for good! ^^
legendary
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Quote
EDIT: actually, maybe LN might have some effect on money velocity in the future, by allowing (especially by machines) much more and faster transactions.

ding, ding, its taken a while but finally some are starting to "get it" ... LN will supercharge bitcoin monetary velocity, instant TX ... MV = PQ

that's not bitcoin velocity that's LN venosity, you can back LN with any system it dosn't need to be Bitcoin, the fees that get paid to LN, don't go to miners who secure the network, they fo to the LN node operators.

you are just plain wrong, likely mis-informed by the company you keep. The necessary LN bitcoin TXs that open and close channels will be immediately identifiable by the bitcoin miners who can demand as high fees as they feel necessary to provide their precious adjudication services for the LN.

There is most likely no problem with fees leaving bitcoin for LN, it just some more FUD you are spreading like "the LN routing problem" bull made up shit stories. Just stop it if you don't know what you're talking about.
legendary
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What is SUPPOSED to happen according to economic theory is that as quantity of money creation decreases (halvings), velocity of money (transactions) is supposed to go up to compensate, maintaining the balance of MV=PQ.  This clearly cannot happen if scaling is slower than halvings.  

Sidechains, lighting network, etc are no substitute because they effectively trade Bitcon IOUs and not actual bitcoin. You get the same problem that the fiat world has: a fractional reserve money multiplier than can either run positive or negative and screw up the balance.  

Somebody please tell me the error of my thinking, or a slow liquidation becomes a serious consideration.  
Apart from some other concerns you raise, which I think have merit, I would like to respond to 2 things where I believe you to be wrong:

1) I don't know where you get the assumption that the halvings are supposed to have an effect on velocity of money.  

2) I think bitcoins paid through LN are economically the same as on-chain transactions.  Yes you could describe it as some kind of IOU, but it is mathematically/informatically based on the same bitcoins, these bitcoins are "anchored", so you should treat these like regular bitcoins. It's not the same thing as a paper IOU (or a digital one) where the only "link" is the trust you have in the issuer of the IOU.

EDIT: actually, maybe LN might have some effect on money velocity in the future, by allowing (especially by machines) much more and faster transactions.

1) They don't effect the velocity (v). They effect the quantity (M).  So because MV=PQ, a decrease in M MUST be compensated by a proportional increase in V in order for the equation to balance out. If it doesn't, then either price or quantity (or both) on the other side must adjust.

2) yes, you could have some sort of "proof of burn" to prevent LN from operating as a fractional reserve and then you'd be right. Centralized third party actors could also have cryptographically proven 100% reserves (or less reserves, provided they honestly disclosed this). 

Adam is right. This is FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and doubt), but it is genuine fear, uncertainty and doubt.

Thanks, that does address at least one of my concerns.
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legendary
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Quote
EDIT: actually, maybe LN might have some effect on money velocity in the future, by allowing (especially by machines) much more and faster transactions.

ding, ding, its taken a while but finally some are starting to "get it" ... LN will supercharge bitcoin monetary velocity, instant TX ... MV = PQ

that's not bitcoin velocity that's LN venosity, you can back LN with any system it dosn't need to be Bitcoin, the fees that get paid to LN, don't go to miners who secure the network, they fo to the LN node operators.
legendary
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its worth noting when Gavin first proposed making bigger blocks the biggest objection from the Core developers was its not needed and if it is ever needed the limit could be changed quickly. well it's needed and they now saying next year.
There is no urgent need for bigger block size limit. Spam need to be filtered out off the blockchain.

I'm paying normal tx fees and so far I haven't had any tx delays or other issues sending bitcoins. Do you have any problems sending your bitcoins?

spam (whatever that is) is nicely exorcise from the block chain by 1) don't process (or relay) new transactions without a fee, and 2) charging a nominal fee $0.01 for minimum transaction sizes for new transactions.

you don't need to limit the block size to prevent spam.

If you want to spam the network with a limited block size send a million fee paying transaction with a fee too low to process. it will fill up the mem pool and cause delays.

HD Space is a non issue when it comes to cost $300 for 6TB. It's the cost to relay transactions on a limited bandwidth network that is extensive.  

If you want to prevent the type of spam that causes congestion to the network write the transactions into the block chain take the fee, a million spam transactions will cost the spammer $10,000 if miners don't adjust there fees at a minimum of $0.01  that's 230MB ($1.5 in HD Space)

so a spam attack costs with a minimum fee of $0.01  = $10,000 results in a $1.5 in hard drive space, = network unaffected

that same spam attack today with limited block space will crash nodes and block the mem pool for hours if not days, and cost the spammer nothing as his fees are returned to him.  
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i think this weekends pump causing the blocks to fill up proves that bitcoin is without a doubt #paralyzed... and i'm going to laugh at it! .. that is some funny shiat! without the ability to scale bitcoin cant win. lol. too funny.... i doubt bitcoin can withstand much more pumping without completely freezing up . that really is hilarious.. #GimpedCoin

11-20 satoshis per byte /   0-12   blocks to confirm
21-30 satoshis per byte /   0-3 blocks to confirm   
31-40 satoshis per byte /   0-2 blocks to confirm   
41-50 satoshis per byte /   0-1 blocks to confirm

For a 250byte ordinary tx this is:

1-2 cents / 0-12 blocks to confirm
2-3 cents / 0-3 blocks to confirm
3-4 cents / 0-2 blocks to confirm
4-5 cents / 0-1 blocks to confirm

Paralyzed?

Freezing up?

Fees still a few cents despite the "clogging"?

How did that happen? LOL

I wonder if there are people out there that take this kind of fullblockalypse FUD and take it seriously.

I read Armstrong the other day, he said "too little too late". Too late for what? Was anyone excluded from transacting at these ridiculously low fees?

Too much venture capital is overinvested in the space. They think they can make demands on the community of developers. Well, Wall Street can suck it as far as I’m concerned.
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Trusted Bitcoiner

Bitcoin/USD 3-Day chart.

Warming up main engines.




I'm a bit afraid by your chart... I shouldn't have oppened a short no?

legendary
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i think this weekends pump causing the blocks to fill up proves that bitcoin is without a doubt #paralyzed... and i'm going to laugh at it! .. that is some funny shiat! without the ability to scale bitcoin cant win. lol. too funny.... i doubt bitcoin can withstand much more pumping without completely freezing up . that really is hilarious.. #GimpedCoin

11-20 satoshis per byte /   0-12   blocks to confirm
21-30 satoshis per byte /   0-3 blocks to confirm   
31-40 satoshis per byte /   0-2 blocks to confirm   
41-50 satoshis per byte /   0-1 blocks to confirm

For a 250byte ordinary tx this is:

1-2 cents / 0-12 blocks to confirm
2-3 cents / 0-3 blocks to confirm
3-4 cents / 0-2 blocks to confirm
4-5 cents / 0-1 blocks to confirm

Paralyzed?

Freezing up?

Fees still a few cents despite the "clogging"?

How did that happen? LOL

I wonder if there are people out there that take this kind of fullblockalypse FUD and take it seriously.

I read Armstrong the other day, he said "too little too late". Too late for what? Was anyone excluded from transacting at these ridiculously low fees?
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