Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19618. (Read 26608460 times)

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
If First Mover advantage is lost, whether it takes years or months, it will be gone forever.  Yeah, Bitcoin will still be around. Hell, MySpace is still around, but The escape route from Bankster tyranny will have been blocked.

Goldman sachs and govcoin can never replicate some of bitcoins best attributes:soverign, immutable, no KYC. and extremely unlikely to replicate other features that make bitcoin so great : limited , disinflationary.

Once you know this , you will have no fear of these private blockchains.

Who says it has to even be private? All they have to do is clone bitcoin and premine the shit out of it, market it as the drug and terrorism-free version (loss of anonymity is a feature, not a bug), and prop up the price for a few months.  If they hire K Street lobbyists to encourage USG to treat their coin a little more charitably and our coin with a little more hostility, it's off to the races.

We'll still be squabbling over SegWit and 4MB when their nodes are the size of Google data centers processing millions of transactions an hour. They'll be like a hot IPO and we'll be de-listed and relegated to the penny stock pink sheets. And we'll deserve it.




Again BJA simplifying a possible scenario to the degree of absurdity....   


Lot's of steps need to occur before this particular BJA scenario were to even be possible of playing out, and sure, if there is a competing Alt coin that seems to be more profitable, many of us BTC advocates, including yours truly, would likely be jumping onto the more profitable one (at least diversifying our investments onto the apparently more profitable alt). 

Nonetheless, your pie in the sky speculation is nearly pure absurdity, because it probably has less than a 1% chance of playing out as you describe.  Yet, the scenario may resonate with a few readers merely because it is possible, but even if something is possible does not make it very likely or something that we should be acting upon at the current moment... because, at the current moment, it's ridiculous.     Roll Eyes Roll Eyes  Tongue Tongue



full member
Activity: 756
Merit: 100
I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

[https://i.imgur.com/h0hnscR.png[/img]
  

[https://i.imgur.com/zAQaVIX.png[/img]

I think that is a very decent assessment, rOach, regarding the current status of Bitcoin's price dynamics.

Bitcoin's general price direction remains upwards (and possibly slightly plateauing), and we are going to need to witness a considerable amount of concerted dumping in order to attempt to achieve any kinds of lower price points as you hit upon ($410, $390 and $360, each of those lower price points successfully more difficult to achieve in the current trend), and bears may not be willing to push for such lower prices on their own, and they have to somehow convince others to go along with them... which the others will notice that the price remains generally upward... if not flat for a while in this $425 to $435 price range with ongoing upward price pressures.



350 seems really hard to reach indeed. And I'd bet that if price ever reached 350$ in those conditions it would crash even further because most people would loose trust in btc. But I don't see how it could drop so low, thousands of people are frustrated enough to have missed the opportunity to buy at 300, they will take any opportunity around 400 so it won't breack this floor.

I believe it's the first time we agree on something JayJuanGee  Grin
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
If First Mover advantage is lost, whether it takes years or months, it will be gone forever.  Yeah, Bitcoin will still be around. Hell, MySpace is still around, but The escape route from Bankster tyranny will have been blocked.

Goldman sachs and govcoin can never replicate some of bitcoins best attributes:soverign, immutable, no KYC. and extremely unlikely to replicate other features that make bitcoin so great : limited , disinflationary.

Once you know this , you will have no fear of these private blockchains.

Who says it has to even be private? All they have to do is clone bitcoin and premine the shit out of it, market it as the drug and terrorism-free version (loss of anonymity is a feature, not a bug), and prop up the price for a few months.  If they hire K Street lobbyists to encourage USG to treat their coin a little more charitably and our coin with a little more hostility, it's off to the races.

We'll still be squabbling over SegWit and 4MB when their nodes are the size of Google data centers processing millions of transactions an hour. They'll be like a hot IPO and we'll be de-listed and relegated to the penny stock pink sheets. And we'll deserve it.

legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

[https://i.imgur.com/h0hnscR.png[/img]
  

[https://i.imgur.com/zAQaVIX.png[/img]

I think that is a very decent assessment, rOach, regarding the current status of Bitcoin's price dynamics.

Bitcoin's general price direction remains upwards (and possibly slightly plateauing), and we are going to need to witness a considerable amount of concerted dumping in order to attempt to achieve any kinds of lower price points as you hit upon ($410, $390 and $360, each of those lower price points successfully more difficult to achieve in the current trend), and bears may not be willing to push for such lower prices on their own, and they have to somehow convince others to go along with them... which the others will notice that the price remains generally upward... if not flat for a while in this $425 to $435 price range with ongoing upward price pressures.

sr. member
Activity: 258
Merit: 250
So, essentially sideways between ~415-~460 for the next one to two  months?
Assuming Gemini launches alts on their exchange, which might be Soon(TM) there could be some btc/alt/pumpage.
Then blocksize will magically reach consensus and increase and we'll be just about time for the halving and start of higher highs?

With regards to 2mb limit... I wanted to throw my $0.02 for bitcoin core/classic/unlimited.
So it's recognized, essentially, that behind the great firewall of china, lies ~+50% BTC hashpower y network strength.
China has difficulty getting data out due to that firewall delaying everything.
So... the faster and sooner you can bump above 1mb, this could help places maybe outside china and mitigate/limit
 the impact of china btc mining? It seems that, yes, need an increase at some point for big bank applications but also china mining power clearly has to be of concern to big banks and usg.
Maybe? or No higher highs until we drop below 400 again?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1000
Maybe his account was bought

This is a suitable explanation.

Have you ever bothered to click the link in his signature?

That's not an endorsement signature. He is: Vegas Luna. Though, in this place he is close to sane.

(not really though, but he has guns)

I haven't. I didn't know he had a signature as I turned them off about the time sig campaigns started.

Edit: Now I kind of want to buy his book.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.


  

legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 1011
Merit: 721
Decentralize everything
Maybe his account was bought

This is a suitable explanation.

Have you ever bothered to click the link in his signature?

That's not an endorsement signature. He is: Vegas Luna. Though, in this place he is close to sane.

(not really though, but he has guns)

Holy shit what the hell did I just read

Quote
This is an investigation into the Atlantean Mermaids war with the Andromeda Martians who invaded our solar system during its protostar stage with a wandering brown dwarf and the catastrophe that happened. The book presents 21 Polestar Science Theories that range from astronomy, astrophysics, particle physics, quantum physics, string theory, M-brane theory, and more. In-depth research of the solar system and a closer look at Mars and the gas giants. The book reveals the destiny or fate of the human race in the future intergalactic war with the Andromeda.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 2106
I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

cant we reach the moon without visiting below 3xx Huh

not if you ask guys that have sold at 360....   Wink
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.

cant we reach the moon without visiting below 3xx Huh
legendary
Activity: 1066
Merit: 1098

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?

Correct. But between when a block has been mined and when it has been transferred and processed, other miners do not know which transactions in their mempool were included in that block and thus do not know which transactions are safe to start mining on. So they mine empty while they're waiting.

If you look at the timings, most empty blocks come very quickly after the previous blocks for this reason.

Yeah, ok, I see what your are trying to say now.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2267
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?

Correct. But between when a block has been mined and when it has been transferred and processed, other miners do not know which transactions in their mempool were included in that block and thus do not know which transactions are safe to start mining on. So they mine empty while they're waiting because you don't want that hashpower sitting idle and the block reward is pretty tempting on its own.

If you look at the timings, most empty blocks come very quickly after the previous blocks for this reason.
legendary
Activity: 1320
Merit: 1007
I am predicting a drop to 350 ish fairly soon... then moon within the next 6 months.
legendary
Activity: 1066
Merit: 1098

its all about the probability of an orphan block. if we could minimize that probability it would be a big step in the right direction. maybe we should diminish the advantage of 0 tx blocks by making all blocks equally large no matter how much real TXs are in there. so every block would have the same disadvantage of a full block no matter if those are TXs or just some clutter to fill up the 1MB or 2MB

The reason there are one transaction blocks is that the miners don't know which transactions which are in the mempool are valid. The minute you add a minimum requirement, miners will just fill it with dummy transactions they know to be valid but are not in the mempool. You gain nothing but waste space.

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?



I think he means "valid to include in the next block", because they don't (yet) know which ones were included in the header they are building on.

Ah, I see where the confusion is.  To my mind, a "miner" is the entity building the block, not just someone hashing a header provided by an actual miner.

But those 'miners' have no control over what transactions are included in the block anyway...

legendary
Activity: 1105
Merit: 1000

its all about the probability of an orphan block. if we could minimize that probability it would be a big step in the right direction. maybe we should diminish the advantage of 0 tx blocks by making all blocks equally large no matter how much real TXs are in there. so every block would have the same disadvantage of a full block no matter if those are TXs or just some clutter to fill up the 1MB or 2MB

The reason there are one transaction blocks is that the miners don't know which transactions which are in the mempool are valid. The minute you add a minimum requirement, miners will just fill it with dummy transactions they know to be valid but are not in the mempool. You gain nothing but waste space.

Not sure what you mean here...  The mempool is, by definition, the set of transactions a node has received and validated, but have not yet been included in a block, right?

Maybe I am missing some context or something?



I think he means "valid to include in the next block", because they don't (yet) know which ones were included in the header they are building on.
legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1014
Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC
Maybe his account was bought

This is a suitable explanation.

Have you ever bothered to click the link in his signature?

That's not an endorsement signature. He is: Vegas Luna. Though, in this place he is close to sane.

(not really though, but he has guns)
Jump to: