Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19759. (Read 26619992 times)

legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
my guess is around 600-800 when the halving occurs.

i think our crazy bubble days are over, and more of a steady climb has become the norm.

this is good, the bubbles were way too stressful.

I don't agree, i think mega bubble is coming in coming months...Bitcoin is still too small market to be steady for 100% of time...


Yep .... exactamente.....

These various posters who prognosticate that bitcoin has reach some kind of stability or slow growth are living in a kind of fantasy land that ignores the actual state of bitcoin.... anything is possible in bitcoinlandia, but slow and stable seems to be less than a 5% chance, and maybe i am being even a bit too generous to put the probabilities that high?  

If you look at  the recent charts regarding volume and activity and market cap and development and which entities are taking an interest in bitcoin, you will recognize that stability is definitely low in the realm of probabilities in bitcoin's short or medium term future.... and slow growth is also a very low probability in its short or medium term future.

Surely, I would not mind some slow and gradual growth and maybe even some guarantees of such, but that description is out of this world and not the current state of bitcoin... sad to say, and happy to say, at the same time  because like many of us following these forums, I have been accumulating bitcoin over the past couple of years, and if you are reading this post, but you have not been accumulating, it is certainly not too late to get started, especially while BTC prices remain in the triple digits.

We are not guaranteed that violent and explosive upwards growth is going to occur right now or even in the coming 12 months because there is a lot of potential for big money to really attempt to continue to drive prices down, as was done in about the previous 18 months or so...  but nonetheless at this particular moment, the various variables do seem fairly well poised for a shot at some potential upward explosiveness.

 Huh

I think that fact of actual state of bitcoin (total tx/sec, blocksize, mass adoption) atm is exactly why btc price will be limited.

but even then i agree that at next halving btc price will reach at least 500-800.  and if btc getting more mass adopted within next 4-10 years, maybe 50k, 100k  per bitcoin.

Surely you and I have differing views regarding bitcoin's current state of affairs and that effect on future price probabilities and maybe even what affects BTC prices, and there is certainly nothing wrong with having differing views.. and I certainly appreciate reading differing views on this forum.

hopefully, if we have really considered our views regarding the future likelihoods of bitcoin, then likely we are going to posture our current investments into BTC (or not) according to our view of it as compared with other possible investments that we may have available to us.




yes i think we agree that we are different kind of bull  Grin

im mid-long term bull

btw Merry Christmas to everyone
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Murry Christmas bears and bulls
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
BASE TEN MATH

Some day in the near future, Ten or more companies will make 10K transactions or more each. These are your usual suspects: Circle, 21, Coinbase, Bitpay, and some large exchanges.
10 X 10000 =100,000

On that same day, 100 smaller companies are going to make 1K transactions or more each. These are companies like purse.io, bitquick, small gambling sites, smaller exchanges, darknet sales, etc.
100 X 1,000=100,000

Also on that same day, 1000 or more companies will make 100 or more transactions selling goods, remittances, etc.
1,000 X 100=100,000

But we can't forget about the much more common small businesses and individual heavy users who will make ten or more transactions that day.
10,000 X 10=100,000

And then you have people like you and me who may make just one transaction.
100,000 X 1=100,000

So that fills up the entire days worth of blocks and then some, but we still have the light users, the ones who do maybe 1 transaction every 10 days:
1,000,000 x 0.1 =100,000

How many transactions is that? 600K? way too many. So fees creep up. 10% decide that the cost is too high in time or fees and give up.  How many left? 500K. still too many. Fees keep going up.  Transactions take hours to confirm. This makes some traders nervous, and they start pulling coins off exchanges. Traffic increases by the same 10% who gave up. This makes other people nervous. Coinbase and Bitpay users start to users start to fear their business model is unworkable and move their coins to private wallets. This increases traffic even more. It now takes 10 hours to confirm a transaction.

At this point, Ten of the many, many enemies of bitcoin see an opportunity. For $10,000 in fees, they flood the blockchain with yet MORE transactions, increasing the panic which of course makes even more people want to move their coins around. When they see how effective this attack is, they go for the kill and spend $100,000 to back up traffic for 10 days. 

What would happen after that is unpredictable, beyond the singularity. What do you think might happen?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
To all bitcointalk  junkies active right now:
 give me a  +1



+1

Just catching up due to working 12 days in a row and just found out I'm working for a short while tomorrow early Christmas day:P

Merry Christmas to all and also Monkey Cheesy

Monkey vision:  Drop towards 390 support intraday, rising trend to continue thereafter on a daily basis, and over the weekend.
You know this is wrong
Monkey now sees at least one week downtrend, 362 support.

That makes me feel better about my buy @ 427

Best wishes to you and Monkey Smiley

The following is an unpaid signature.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
Um, no. The block reward subsidizes transaction verification, so you would need to add the market cap of all the coins mined during that time to your $18k to calculate the total cost to move that 200 mil.

Block reward has two main purposes.

1) Securing the network
2) The necessary distribution of the monetary base during the first years.

BTCs will be issued due to (2) even if zero transactions exist. Same for altcoins sharing BTC code that have much less "traffic" and a lot of empty blocks.

Yes, fees and block reward both are to secure the network. Thanks for making my point for me.

 What sort of person gets upset that somebody's getting too good of a deal, when he's not even a party to the transaction?  If you're running a node, and you think it's too taxing, then stop. If you're not running a node then why do you give a shit? Some people are getting good security inexpensively and others are providing good security inexpensively. The horror. the horror.
hero member
Activity: 577
Merit: 500
Jesus was a (Goddamn) hippy socialist
To all bitcointalk  junkies active right now:
 give me a  +1

legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1006
beware of your keys.
not that much changes, lol.
bud, we need some major issues. Grin
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 981
Merit: 1005
No maps for these territories
we are playing bomberman online here:

http://battlecoin.org/#nNyG

is a fucking vicious
legendary
Activity: 3934
Merit: 11405
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


I'm still the same ONE. 

In the past month or two, due to the politely-phrased request of BlindMayorBitcorn, I decided to attempt to considerably lessen my employment of ALL CAP emphasizing because it had become more apparent to me that from time to time (and probably too much) such style was detracting from my attempts to relay content.   hahahahahaha     Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

legendary
Activity: 3934
Merit: 11405
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Here's an idea: How about 1 kilobyte blocks to make the chain Superduper secure? We should petition the central planning committee of Blockstream.

Truly over the time that you have been a member of this forum...
Even though in various regards, you have asserted that you have the right to participate in this forum, your ongoing cluttering of this thread with your repeated variances of the same message ...

Sure, BJA expresses a contrarian opinion frequently.

Some others (look around) spend significant forum space merely complaining about BJA expressing an opinion.

Those who try to shake free their bias and look at the situation objectively might find one of these -- or may find the other of these -- as annoying.

just sayin'


Ultimately, forum administrators should be able decide whether or not his approach and/or repetitive substance is contributing value or taking away value from the forum and/or this thread.

I see nothing wrong with posters having strong opinions and articulating strong opinions, so long as others are not being drowned out or even overwhelmed by the seemingly purposeful irrelevant clutter. 

Even though I frequently don't agree with BjA's posts, I agree that sometimes he highlights some valid points... currently, I am personally of the conclusion that he has gone way overboard in his apparent maniacal obsessions . and accordingly he is causing (and possibly on purpose) the inability of others to contribute...
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
inflating my non-inflationary currency at a rate of over 10% of bitcoin's total market cap. Per fucking year.

15 of 21m are already issued - most of the monetary base distribution is over with and the upward price movement due to scarcity more than compensates. That's what the long term trend says.

Soon we'll get half block rewards and after 4 years another 50% cut.

In any case, PoS or PoW/PoS coins are an alternative for those who don't like BTC's distribution or are too anxious to reduce inflation right now (that won't happen).

member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
legendary
Activity: 3934
Merit: 11405
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
Thanks for your kind advice, billyjoeallen. I'm sure you could employ your precious energy in far more productive activities other than aimlessly (suspiciously?) repeating yourself.

Here's an idea: How about 1 kilobyte blocks to make the chain Superduper secure? We should petition the central planning committee of Blockstream.



Truly over the time that you have been a member of this forum, you have gotten some other members to be sympathetic with whatever self-absorbed and focused cause that you have wished to present; however, the fact of the matter is that you have a considerable inability to recognize nuanced benefits that come from a collaborative process, recognizing variations of views and accepting that not everyone accepts the world from your narrow perspective. 

Even though in various regards, you have asserted that you have the right to participate in this forum, your ongoing cluttering of this thread with your repeated variances of the same message rises to a level of interference with free and fair communication,   and because of your ongoing and unrelenting behavior to clutter thread with irritating dogma and repetition, you and your account should really be either warned, suspended or banned...

your contributions are just the opposite, really...   Best case scenario, you are an attention whore and worst case scenario, you are a paid shill that is purposefully engaging in tactics to detract forum members from engaging in meaningful dialogue.

I'm supposed to get paid? Clearly I'm not doing this right.


Yes, it seems so. 

If you are not being paid, then you should be.  I am just not convinced that any quasi-normal person would go to the extreme methods that you employ in order to clutter this thread with your various reiterations and repackaging of what is becoming more clearly recognized as utter non-sense and irrelevance in the whole scheme of things.

Certainly, you are not a dumb person, and many of your posts are fairly intelligently articulated and even refraining from personal attacks... but they are still substantively garbage because they clutter, repeat and squeeze out meaningful and informative discussion(s).

In that regard, your ongoing thread clutter seems to be of a similar level of nuisance value as jorge's various "academic interest" contributions; however, at least, in recent weeks, either on purpose or coincidentally, jorge has (by hook or by crook) seemed to exercise some good sense in being absent from some of his doom and gloom speculations regarding the future of bitcoin. But, likely he (jorge) will also strategically return to the thread when there may seem an opportunity for some of his bullshit to resonate with some readers.  With you, on the other hand, I am just surprised that for so long of a period of time, you have gotten away with having any credibility with some genuine posters in this thread beyond that of a troll.

I recognize that through the years, you may have had some semblance of contribution(s), beyond just becoming obsessive/compulsive and possibly worsening in recent months. 

I don't have enough patience or will-power to review your post history with that level of scrutiny to suss out contribution as compared with non-contribution, but I would think that with your recent obsessive conduct, you should have provided more than sufficient evidence for any forum administrator to feel comfortable and justified to ban and/or suspend your account - because as I already asserted, you are and have been single-handedly robbing considerable value from more genuine forum posters through your rubbish bullshit repeated and repackaged posts.



legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1688
lose: unfind ... loose: untight
Here's an idea: How about 1 kilobyte blocks to make the chain Superduper secure? We should petition the central planning committee of Blockstream.

Truly over the time that you have been a member of this forum...
Even though in various regards, you have asserted that you have the right to participate in this forum, your ongoing cluttering of this thread with your repeated variances of the same message ...

Sure, BJA expresses a contrarian opinion frequently.

Some others (look around) spend significant forum space merely complaining about BJA expressing an opinion.

Those who try to shake free their bias and look at the situation objectively might find one of these -- or may find the other of these -- as annoying.

just sayin'
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