Looks like it wants to make a small jump up
nailed it 
Wow, nice one! How did you see that coming if I may ask?
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 19876. (Read 26609155 times)
December 13, 2015, 09:47:34 AM
Wow, nice one! How did you see that coming if I may ask?
December 13, 2015, 09:47:29 AM
Some of you (bears) need to accept we are now in BULL mode. For the next few years at least. So, yes we will have dips and corrections, but the general trend is now- UP. Don't fight the trend.
December 13, 2015, 09:43:11 AM
@CATO
Just saw your follow up post... Looks like you're equating "truthfulness" with "randomness" - that's quite an assumption.
For example (simplifying), you could treat one volume as (mostly) representing "demand", and the other as (mostly) representing "the appearance of demand". If you could correctly tell which it is (not necessarily always, but with more certainty than by pure chance), the latter volume contains information again you could include in your model.
Not saying that's the way to go, but just to show that "somewhat predictably lying" is still information, even if the output has to be put through a different function than non-lying information
(EDIT) Also, that was one of the fastest ignores, @^
Just saw your follow up post... Looks like you're equating "truthfulness" with "randomness" - that's quite an assumption.
For example (simplifying), you could treat one volume as (mostly) representing "demand", and the other as (mostly) representing "the appearance of demand". If you could correctly tell which it is (not necessarily always, but with more certainty than by pure chance), the latter volume contains information again you could include in your model.
Not saying that's the way to go, but just to show that "somewhat predictably lying" is still information, even if the output has to be put through a different function than non-lying information
(EDIT) Also, that was one of the fastest ignores, @^
December 13, 2015, 09:40:49 AM
Looks like it wants to make a small jump up
nailed it Totally organic, just the way Lambie likes it.
December 13, 2015, 09:40:16 AM
Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.
Thinking is kinda what we do here now. Old-timer.
Except that it's not USD and adoption running the show, if it were so then price would be sub 200$.
The largely fake Chinese volume, with apparently Huobi leading, is driving the price.
December 13, 2015, 09:33:46 AM
Looks like it wants to make a small jump up
nailed it December 13, 2015, 09:26:02 AM
Looks like it wants to make a small jump up
December 13, 2015, 09:22:13 AM
Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.
Out of curiosity then, how do you suggest to deal with it? Entirely discard it in the analysis?
Completely ignoring it seems quite excessive to me, and maybe just as counterproductive as treating it as if it were 100% 'real'.
Fun Riddle:
You are a prisoner, in a cell, and you wanna be free. Free to ride your machines without being hassled by The Man.
The cell has two doors, each with a guard.
One of the doors leads to freedom, the other to the chopping block.
You are allowed to ask one of the guards one, and only one, question.
One of the guards is always truthful, the other always lies.*
What is the question to ask?
*Well, not always. Actually, they're just regular people, like you and I. Sometimes they lie, sometimes they don't.
@Fatman: Whew, thanks, I thought I was losing it.
...
Can I get a 'no, no it isn't!!!1!'? It's CATO play time, don't make me jump on you keyboard. I'll do it.
~more time passes~
-CATO, my little yellow friend, I am home! -Dr. Clouseau
Can I get a 'no, no it isn't!!!1!'? It's CATO play time, don't make me jump on you keyboard. I'll do it.
~more time passes~
-CATO, my little yellow friend, I am home! -Dr. Clouseau
Without the footnote -- the "always" case -- and under a number of basic assumptions (e.g. how exactly you formally treat "lying"), in other words: given the result of the most common 'reasoning towards an interpretation' process, this reduces to the classical Boolos / Labyrinth puzzle, so: "If I ask the other guy which door leads to freedom, what would he tell me?", then pick the other door for freedom.
Assuming that they sometimes tell the truth, sometimes don't, I suppose this turns into a probabilistic version of the above puzzle. Interesting case, never thought of that, but looks like it requires the assumption that you (a) either know that one of the two is more likely to tell the truth than the other, or (b) know their combined likelihood to tell the truth. In that case, it seems you can maximize your chance to get out, but cannot guarantee it.
Without any such knowledge, it's as good as picking a door at random.
* * *
Now, how does any of that relate to CNY volume?
December 13, 2015, 09:21:54 AM
Thinking isn't really one of my stronger qualities. 
December 13, 2015, 09:19:47 AM
Slow but steady demand-driven price growth. Wonderful.
December 13, 2015, 09:18:50 AM
hmmmmmmhmmmmm
December 13, 2015, 09:09:55 AM
Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.
Out of curiosity then, how do you suggest to deal with it? Entirely discard it in the analysis?
Completely ignoring it seems quite excessive to me, and maybe just as counterproductive as treating it as if it were 100% 'real'.
Fun Riddle:
You are a prisoner, in a cell, and you wanna be free. Free to ride your machines without being hassled by The Man.
The cell has two doors, each with a guard.
One of the doors leads to freedom, the other to the chopping block.
You are allowed to ask one of the guards one, and only one, question.
One of the guards is always truthful, the other always lies.*
What is the question to ask?
*Well, not always. Actually, they're just regular people, like you and I. Sometimes they lie, sometimes they don't.
"What would the other guard say?"
*Introducing Tobogganed Medallions Nonacceptance Skegs?
December 13, 2015, 09:00:41 AM
December 13, 2015, 08:59:34 AM
@Fatman: Not a colloquialism, it's an intensifier.
Ok, thanks
Edit: although:
Quote
Adverb[edit]
real (not comparable)
(US, colloquial) Really, very.
real (not comparable)
(US, colloquial) Really, very.
December 13, 2015, 08:58:58 AM
... USD and adoption are supposed to be running the show now, but here we still have jokers talking about how 'the imaginary chinese whale dumped his 80,000btc/cny on Huobi'.
~time passes~
December 13, 2015, 08:56:47 AM
Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.
Out of curiosity then, how do you suggest to deal with it? Entirely discard it in the analysis?
Completely ignoring it seems quite excessive to me, and maybe just as counterproductive as treating it as if it were 100% 'real'.
December 13, 2015, 08:22:45 AM
My transaction was included in the fourth block 
My last transaction earlier this week took 3 blocks
btc is working just like it should be
My last transaction earlier this week took 3 blocks btc is working just like it should be
In case you need some rough fee estimate: http://bitcoinexchangerate.org/fees
Quote from: Current Recommended Bitcoin Network Transaction Fees
USD cents satoshis BTC
To get in next block 2.1 4831 0.00004832
To be confirmed in the next hour 2.2 5139 0.00005140
To be confirmed within 24 hours 2.0 4659 0.00004660
To get in next block 2.1 4831 0.00004832
To be confirmed in the next hour 2.2 5139 0.00005140
To be confirmed within 24 hours 2.0 4659 0.00004660
Thank you. I used the "recommended" setting in the Core wallet which was ~2x what is listed above. I didn't check the mem pool but just saw the long time since the last block as well as the fact that the recent blocks were virtually full. I knew I wouldn't be in the first block but 4 blocks? Many blocks are now full and delays are happening to me much more often than not. Maybe I'm just lucky
December 13, 2015, 08:21:15 AM
Let's see if bulls can do better next time. I made a little money on the failed attempt at $445 so now You will have to buy even more, but you might do it. Just don't pump to over $3,000 or I'll get a margin call. HAHAHAHA.
Scale or die.
Scale or die.
Weren't you screaming the same when the price hit ~260$ two months ago in October and sold like 50 coins and counting? Some people will never learn I guess.
edit: found it
Thanks for finding that BjA post. he's got a lot of real retarded posts, even though once in a while he will say something that makes sense.
That should be really retarded posts, unless you are suggesting other posts are fake retarded.
It's more of a colloquialism than dead wrong.
December 13, 2015, 08:19:34 AM
Slow but steady demand-driven price growth. Wonderful.
December 13, 2015, 08:15:51 AM
Seriously, you guys are still counting BTC/CNY volume on Huobi and OKCoin? Get a clue.
Thinking is kinda what we do here now. Old-timer.
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