Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20361.

Richy_T

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Quote from: rebuilder on November 04, 2015, 10:20:39 AM

OK, this wasn't exactly a huge success... The quality is atrocious from all the transforms and video compression, andy Richy_T could do this much better from the raw data with whatever he's making Chartbuddy's snapshots with anyway. Nevertheless, a run down the canyons on nov. 20, 2013 (16 hours of it only!):

http://vid.me/rGpC

Not bad. Shame there is no changetip on this site. And I do mean a shame. As in Theymos should be ashamed of the neglect he shows this site. It's surprising enough when it actually stays up.

BitUsher

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 04, 2015, 10:26:15 AM

Quote from: BitUsher on November 04, 2015, 09:54:10 AM

coinbase has 2.7 million KYC verified clients and 4.2 million accounts and they fall outside the jurisdiction of the largest bitcoin userbase. A conservative estimate would be 4-5 million minimum.

https://www.coinbase.com/about

Those are *registered* not *active* users. Coinbase (and others like them) are always ambiguous when they quote those numbers. A user may register just out of curiosity, perhaps make one or two small transactions and then give up on bitcoin.

If Coinbase's active users were really growing, they would not need to run referral campaigns that paid $25 ($75 at some point) for referral of a new user who made a $100 payment through them (which would have generated $2 of revenue).

Moreover, that count must include (as you say) people who use only "off-chain bitcoin" -- deposit dollars at Coinbase, buy some bitcoin, only to spend them at a Coinbase-affiliated merchant who gets dollars from Coinbase. Sorry, but those are not at all "bitcoin users". Bitcoin was about replacing dollars and getting rid of trusted intermediaries, remeber? If youdon't issue transactions for the blockchain, you are not using bitcoin.

Bitcoin is to "Coinbase bitcoin" like steak is to steak-flavored corn chips.

If you consider a "bitcoiner" as actively using it almost daily than I will take half a million users and suggest that is really healthy. All those passive users who I gifted 30-50 dollars through coinbase , now have hundreds of dollars worth btc , will soon become active again.

Quote from: ynef on November 04, 2015, 10:45:43 AM

Quote from: BitUsher on November 04, 2015, 09:48:27 AM

No , this is unhealthy and violent rise... I would be happier with 1-2% steady gains a day for the next year

The rapid rise in 2013 was unhealthy and violent as well. Look how that turned out for the most of us.

Many people that purchased near the peak were and are still disappointing and sold at a loss because they didn't follow advice from people like me which discourage speculation and focus on short term utility and insist if they do speculate that they are in it for the longterm and do their research first. Thousands sold at a loss, and turned their back on bitcoin and won't be returning for many years.

jbreher

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lose: unfind ... loose: untight

Quote from: Asrael999 on November 04, 2015, 06:55:37 AM

when can we start with the 666 memes? Monday?

2014 Jun 01 (on the way down):

Tzupy

legendary

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Only minutes left until a triangle should break either way, my money is on down.

cmacwiz

sr. member

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just waking up... goddamn I thought 3000CNY was gonna go sideways for at least 12 hours, ha. 600 by lunchtime in LA?

Richy_T

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 04, 2015, 10:26:15 AM

Those are *registered* not *active* users. Coinbase (and others like them) are always ambiguous when they quote those numbers. A user may register just out of curiosity, perhaps make one or two small transactions and then give up on bitcoin.

OTOH, KYC requirements mean there's a barrier to entry that would discourage casual browsing.

Then again, a lot of users may not even use exchanges. Though I am not sure whether the people I have given samples to could really be considered users. I'm hardly even one myself at this point.

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 04, 2015, 10:42:13 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on November 04, 2015, 10:12:13 AM

no no no AAPL or WMT do not have the same potential as bitcoin.

AAPL is valued because Apple makes products that people want, so each share pays out dividends (or becomes a share of a bigger capital). AAPL is unlikely to go to 1,000,000 $/share bcause it is unlikely that Apple will make a product THAT good. One can speculate with AAPL shares, and a speculative bubble may well push the price a lot higher that their fundamental price -- but only for a while, eventually it gets corrected back.

Bitcoin (sorry for repeating) has does not make any products and does pay dividends. It can be used as a currency, but so could be Litecoin or any of an infinite supply of altcoins; and the "fundamental" price supported by that use shoudl be down in the single digits. So its current price is entirely speculative.

I fail to see how a financial instrument that has less productive potential than AAPL can have more chance of getting getting "to the moon" and staying there...

APPL isn't looking to replace gold's speculative value , bitcoin is, this is 1 small reason why bitcoin has more potential.

the market(s) bitcoin is after is much much bigger than what APPL is after.

hdbuck

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Quote from: ynef on November 04, 2015, 10:45:43 AM

Quote from: BitUsher on November 04, 2015, 09:48:27 AM

No , this is unhealthy and violent rise... I would be happier with 1-2% steady gains a day for the next year

The rapid rise in 2013 was unhealthy and violent as well. Look how that turned out for the most of us.

buy high sell low.

ynef

full member

Activity: 158

Merit: 100

Quote from: BitUsher on November 04, 2015, 09:48:27 AM

No , this is unhealthy and violent rise... I would be happier with 1-2% steady gains a day for the next year

The rapid rise in 2013 was unhealthy and violent as well. Look how that turned out for the most of us.

hdbuck

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Activity: 1260

Merit: 1002

Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 04, 2015, 10:42:13 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on November 04, 2015, 10:12:13 AM

no no no AAPL or WMT do not have the same potential as bitcoin.

AAPL is valued because Apple makes products that people want, so each share pays out dividends (or becomes a share of a bigger capital). AAPL is unlikely to go to 1,000,000 $/share bcause it is unlikely that Apple will make a product THAT good. One can speculate with AAPL shares, and a speculative bubble may well push the price a lot higher that their fundamental price -- but only for a while, eventually it gets corrected back.

Bitcoin (sorry for repeating) has does not make any products and does pay dividends. It can be used as a currency, but so could be Litecoin or any of an infinite supply of altcoins; and the "fundamental" price supported by that use shoudl be down in the single digits. So its current price is entirely speculative.

I fail to see how a financial instrument that has less productive potential than AAPL can have more chance of getting getting "to the moon" and staying there...

bitcoin offers unalienable security.

1/2 hexahash decentralized P2P network remember?

srsly and then you claim to be some CS professor? what a waste of time.

Sitarow

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adamstgBit

legendary

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Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: Mirsad on November 04, 2015, 10:16:37 AM

Quote from: adamstgBit on November 04, 2015, 10:09:35 AM

Quote from: Mirsad on November 04, 2015, 10:07:15 AM

Glad I sold 70% of my newly purchased (215$) bitcoins. Profit lock-in is so great.
Let's wait for the next swing.

Time to acquire more BTC and get even more dirty fiat profits. Staying full in BTC is moronic.

sell high buy higher

good plan

I always thought you were not one of those permabulls.
With Bitcoin there are always ups and downs. Buy & Hold sucks long term. Bad trading as well (I agree).
Spreading your buy-ins wisely will reduce the risk of buy high and sell low.

i'm a permabull at least when chatting on these forum
HODLING a lot of BTC never to sell is probably the safest strategy
I play the sell high buy higher game, yesterday i logged in and sold some bitcoin, seems like fairly easy profit, but i don't recommend it to everyone, i'm going to have to avg up a little a sell more then i feel comfortable with today, and hope that in the next few weeks we get below my avg selling price. I consider myself lucky that my extreme bullishness stopped me from selling a few days ago. and I'll consider myself lucky if i manage to grab BTC profits at some point.

but look at trami he might be in pretty deep shit right about now, he might of made a killing on the way down, and then one last short destroys all his profits.

buy & hold = safe and easy
buy & sell = scary and fun
short & long = could kill you.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: adamstgBit on November 04, 2015, 10:12:13 AM

no no no AAPL or WMT do not have the same potential as bitcoin.

AAPL is valued because Apple makes products that people want, so each share pays out dividends (or becomes a share of a bigger capital). AAPL is unlikely to go to 1,000,000 $/share bcause it is unlikely that Apple will make a product THAT good. One can speculate with AAPL shares, and a speculative bubble may well push the price a lot higher that their fundamental price -- but only for a while, eventually it gets corrected back.

Bitcoin (sorry for repeating) has does not make any products and does pay dividends. It can be used as a currency, but so could be Litecoin or any of an infinite supply of altcoins; and the "fundamental" price supported by that use shoudl be down in the single digits. So its current price is entirely speculative.

I fail to see how a financial instrument that has less productive potential than AAPL can have more chance of getting getting "to the moon" and staying there...

BlackSpidy

hero member

Activity: 513

Merit: 511

Wow! Whenever I think we're going to face some significant resistance, china just blows it up. I can't get any new bitcoin, as I'm accumulating fiat for when we're done with... whatever this is (I hope I have the opportunity to buy below $400 by January). I just finished setting up my beartraps for today, let's see how many of them click. Good luck, everyone.

Richy_T

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on November 04, 2015, 10:09:43 AM

There is simply no rational way to pick probabilities of future prices. Is it possible that BTC will reach that price? Sure. Is it possible that Litecoin will do that instead? Sure, that is possible too. Is ist possible that AAPL or WMT shares will do it? Possible, yes, sure. Even the Venezuelan bolivar and the Somalian shilling could be worth that much one day. So?

Yeah, I hate when people assign probabilities to things like that. It's a total misuse. It's a factor of current conditions and it will either succeed or it won't. Any probability input falls into chaos theory and butterfly effect. "I don't know what will happen" is not a synonym for "this is subject to random chance" and you can't pull numbers out of your ass and assign them as possibilities. Especially for events which are not repeatable.

I'm sure this is probably* some kind of named fallacy thinking about it.

*(Using probably colloquially with no assigned percentage)

hdbuck

legendary

Activity: 1260

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alien spotted.

murica eh. Grin

conspirosphere.tk

legendary

Activity: 2352

Merit: 1064

Bitcoin is antisemitic

Quote from: ?? on ??

When did that happen?

So you can lend on OKcoin? Time to have a second look.

GreekGeek

hero member

Activity: 577

Merit: 500

Jesus was a (Goddamn) hippy socialist

new poll maybe...?

yolalanda

newbie

Activity: 56

Merit: 0

Quote from: inca on November 04, 2015, 10:14:21 AM

Quote from: yolalanda on November 04, 2015, 09:42:34 AM

Go ahead, party... You think you've already won, but you haven't Angry

http://i160.photobucket.com/albums/t166/Sharkfreak06/ahp-711-2.jpg

Get back is gonna be sweet...

Pathetic. Hopefully no one listened to you in the last year.

Thankfully the price continues to march higher.

Any wagers on the eventual top? Thoughts on the impact of the USMS auction tomorrow?

What's it like to not give a flying f8ck about the millions who were turned to smoke at Auschwitz, just to keep you farting through silk (You Monster!)?
You don't belong in this world!
http://www.historyplace.com/worldwar2/defeat/catastrophe-stalingrad-german-prisoner.jpg

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: BitUsher on November 04, 2015, 09:54:10 AM

coinbase has 2.7 million KYC verified clients and 4.2 million accounts and they fall outside the jurisdiction of the largest bitcoin userbase. A conservative estimate would be 4-5 million minimum.

https://www.coinbase.com/about

Those are *registered* not *active* users. Coinbase (and others like them) are always ambiguous when they quote those numbers. A user may register just out of curiosity, perhaps make one or two small transactions and then give up on bitcoin.

If Coinbase's active users were really growing, they would not need to run referral campaigns that paid $25 ($75 at some point) for referral of a new user who made a $100 payment through them (which would have generated $2 of revenue).

Moreover, that count must include (as you say) people who use only "off-chain bitcoin" -- deposit dollars at Coinbase, buy some bitcoin, only to spend them at a Coinbase-affiliated merchant who gets dollars from Coinbase. Sorry, but those are not at all "bitcoin users". Bitcoin was about replacing dollars and getting rid of trusted intermediaries, remeber? If youdon't issue transactions for the blockchain, you are not using bitcoin.

Bitcoin is to "Coinbase bitcoin" like steak is to steak-flavored corn chips.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20361. (Read 26608306 times)