Bloody hell. Is that what kids are wearing these days in America??
Shirts? Yup. They came over from the Old World about three years ago. All the Americans I've met were delighted to throw those smocks away.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20646. (Read 26609471 times)
October 17, 2015, 05:38:27 PM
Bloody hell. Is that what kids are wearing these days in America??
Shirts? Yup. They came over from the Old World about three years ago. All the Americans I've met were delighted to throw those smocks away.
October 17, 2015, 05:34:21 PM
I didn't see this image around and I felt like this would be the best thread to post it (instead of starting a new thread). Bitcoin was mentioned at the beginning of Dope.
@Whoever said that we were crashing: the price is actively fluctuating. We have reached $270 again and came back to $266.91 again on Bitstamp.
Bloody hell. Is that what kids are wearing these days in America??
October 17, 2015, 05:26:55 PM
I didn't see this image around and I felt like this would be the best thread to post it (instead of starting a new thread). Bitcoin was mentioned at the beginning of Dope (movie released in 2015).
@Whoever said that we were crashing: the price is actively fluctuating. We have reached $270 again and came back to $266.91 again on Bitstamp.
October 17, 2015, 05:22:23 PM
... Could you offer TL;DR of how you've arrived at 250MW? Not doubting you, just wondering what that number is meant to represent.
The network is at 500 petahash and the machines are pulling an average of 0.5w/gh (Ant s3 0.7w/gh, SP-tech 0.6w/gh, ant s5 0.5w/gh and newer gear 0.25w/gh).
You might be missing some details:
1. It's safe to assume that any [already purchased] gear will be kept online as long as it mines more coin than it costs to run. And 'costs to run' = electricity + cheap warehouse space.
A very large portion of the miners today are old Ant S3's. But a lot of mines will simply replace miners rather than upgrade capacity when things are as marginal as they are now.
Yeah, Chinese chicken coops are less exotic than actual data centers, but still...
But certainly not 3.7%, or else...http://www.bangkokpost.com/media/content/20141014/694349.jpghttp://cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/5a40080d486b923b6f7eac3f074780e0.jpg
Quote
... the dutch and belgian mining operations with 20 cents per kw/h went first. While areas with 2 cent kw/h are booming. It's a volatile market.
There really were factory farms running on $.20 power? 
October 17, 2015, 05:19:20 PM
Successful mining requires a specialized skill set. Successful trading requires a completely different specialized skill set. Very few people are gifted to possess both. enough. In general, even successful miners lose some profit trading and some of the best traders lose money mining.
Miners will sell too many coins at low prices and too few at high prices. That's we we have such high volatility. Successful traders buy low and sell high, reducing volatility, but traders don't get the coins first. Miners do.
Miners will sell too many coins at low prices and too few at high prices. That's we we have such high volatility. Successful traders buy low and sell high, reducing volatility, but traders don't get the coins first. Miners do.
bumping myself. I think this bears repeating.
Possible head and shoulders forming, but I don't think I'm going to trade it. I already sold all the coins I'm comfortable selling in this range.
October 17, 2015, 05:15:36 PM
@ Fatman ... yup ... I agree - someone's paying for dem coins whichever way you cut it 
it took me both of my brain cells to get to that conclusion
I had to borrow couple of extra ones
cheater
October 17, 2015, 05:14:15 PM
@ Fatman ... yup ... I agree - someone's paying for dem coins whichever way you cut it
it took me both of my brain cells to get to that conclusion
I had to borrow couple of extra ones
cheater
October 17, 2015, 05:13:15 PM
@ Fatman ... yup ... I agree - someone's paying for dem coins whichever way you cut it
it took me both of my brain cells to get to that conclusion
I had to borrow couple of extra ones
October 17, 2015, 05:11:35 PM
@ Fatman ... yup ... I agree - someone's paying for dem coins whichever way you cut it
it took me both of my brain cells to get to that conclusion
October 17, 2015, 05:09:40 PM
@ Fatman ... yup ... I agree - someone's paying for dem coins whichever way you cut it
Tired too - not even sure if I am arguing for or against what I said
Tired too - not even sure if I am arguing for or against what I said
October 17, 2015, 05:04:33 PM
There's another way to look at this (I think). You either mine to sell instantly or you mine because you or your investors want coins. Coins that would otherwise have been bought at exchanges. Either way they're absorbed by the market.
That is totally reasonable. And works for as long as the miners can continue to raise extra funding from this type of VC, who in reality, may aswell buy and hold BTC themselves (on or off exchange) and not take the risk on the company and what it may or may not do with or wthout their permission.
EDIT: I guess we will never really know, so its kind of an endless and pointless discussion at the end of the day ... but this is the SPECUALTION forum so we don't need 'facts'
I agree. Facts are for pussies.
However, this we know: whether you pay to mine or pay to buy, you're paying for coins. So mined coins are in a sense absorbed by the market either way.
(I'm tired. Please correct me if I'm talking shit.)
October 17, 2015, 05:03:45 PM
But before that happens, the I.O.U.s have the effect of increasing the apparent money supply, leading to lower purchasing power per unit currency. Inflation.
huobi
October 17, 2015, 05:01:46 PM
October 17, 2015, 05:00:51 PM
Successful mining requires a specialized skill set. Successful trading requires a completely different specialized skill set. Very few people are gifted to possess both. enough. In general, even successful miners lose some profit trading and some of the best traders lose money mining.
Miners will sell too many coins at low prices and too few at high prices. That's we we have such high volatility. Successful traders buy low and sell high, reducing volatility, but traders don't get the coins first. Miners do.
Miners will sell too many coins at low prices and too few at high prices. That's we we have such high volatility. Successful traders buy low and sell high, reducing volatility, but traders don't get the coins first. Miners do.
October 17, 2015, 04:56:58 PM
KnC seems to be "selling" some of their mined coins in the form of the XBT Tracker One Electronically Traded Notes. Those are issued through NASDAQ Sweden by a company somehow connected to them. As I understand it, KnC keeps the bitcoins and sell IOUs that promise to pay the holder whatever the current BTC price will be at the time.
Throughout history, every time someone keeps the assets and trades warehouse receipts for that asset (I.O.Us), the IOUs multiply faster that the assets that back them up. It's Why Nixon was forced to abandon the Gold Standard in 1972. It's why Gox closed.
But before that happens, the I.O.U.s have the effect of increasing the apparent money supply, leading to lower purchasing power per unit currency. Inflation.
gox closed because the USG froze their accounts. (and because MK is awesome)
October 17, 2015, 04:50:24 PM
... Could you offer TL;DR of how you've arrived at 250MW? Not doubting you, just wondering what that number is meant to represent.
The network is at 500 petahash and the machines are pulling an average of 0.5w/gh (Ant s3 0.7w/gh, SP-tech 0.6w/gh, ant s5 0.5w/gh and newer gear 0.25w/gh).
You might be missing some details:
1. It's safe to assume that any [already purchased] gear will be kept online as long as it mines more coin than it costs to run. And 'costs to run' = electricity + cheap warehouse space.
A very large portion of the miners today are old Ant S3's. But a lot of mines will simply replace miners rather than upgrade capacity when things are as marginal as they are now. Some will sell the old gear on, but not all of them. Maybe not even a majority. In any event, I don't see how this would alter my rough estimate in any discernible way?
2. Also non-miner electrical costs (Cooling ~37% of electricity used in a [real] data center).*Yeah, Chinese chicken coops are less exotic than actual data centers, but still...
Many mining companies are folding, making me think that mining costs are beginning to approach coin price (as satoshi predicted). If that's the case...
Many mining companies are folding, making me think that mining costs are beginning to approach coin price (as satoshi predicted). If that's the case...
Cooling is a lot cheaper in purpose built mining centers. They don't have to worry about disrupting services or corrupting data if a unit breaks. They just chuck it out the window. I'm not sure what the average in cooling costs are, but it's a heck of a lot lower than 37%. Maybe 3.7%? Would 260MW sit better with you?
What's not taken into account is what a price rise will do to the hashrate. But that depends on the speed of the increase and the availability of HW.
Many mining companies are folding, making me think that mining costs are beginning to approach coin price (as satoshi predicted). If that's the case...
Definitely, the dutch and belgian mining operations with 20 cents per kw/h went first. While areas with 2 cent kw/h are booming. It's a volatile market.
October 17, 2015, 04:50:01 PM
KnC seems to be "selling" some of their mined coins in the form of the XBT Tracker One Electronically Traded Notes. Those are issued through NASDAQ Sweden by a company somehow connected to them. As I understand it, KnC keeps the bitcoins and sell IOUs that promise to pay the holder whatever the current BTC price will be at the time.
Throughout history, every time someone keeps the assets and trades warehouse receipts for that asset (I.O.Us), the IOUs multiply faster that the assets that back them up. It's Why Nixon was forced to abandon the Gold Standard in 1972. It's why Gox closed.
But before that happens, the I.O.U.s have the effect of increasing the apparent money supply, leading to lower purchasing power per unit currency. Inflation.
October 17, 2015, 04:38:48 PM
I think 250MW is underestimating the power demands of the network. Bitfury's new datacenter is going to be 100 MW by itself. Most miners are using 27nm ASICS or worse with some people still actually using GPUs for wha,t I don't know, nostalgia?
300MW is a conservative estimate and quite possibly higher. This is why I think it's silly to hold up the block size increase because it's going to make it difficult to mine over TOR. It's damn near impossible to mine profitably now--over TOR or otherwise-- considering energy costs, hardware costs, bandwidth costs, etc. Any operation with the economy of scale large enough to mine profitably will be extremely difficult to hide from the tax man or other gov. agents. SO WHY BOTHER USING TOR?
Bitcoin is going legit. It has to, because that's how we'll get the money to finance the next weapon against "the Man". Sell out to Wall Street and start over with something less traceable while being more private and secure.
300MW is a conservative estimate and quite possibly higher. This is why I think it's silly to hold up the block size increase because it's going to make it difficult to mine over TOR. It's damn near impossible to mine profitably now--over TOR or otherwise-- considering energy costs, hardware costs, bandwidth costs, etc. Any operation with the economy of scale large enough to mine profitably will be extremely difficult to hide from the tax man or other gov. agents. SO WHY BOTHER USING TOR?
Bitcoin is going legit. It has to, because that's how we'll get the money to finance the next weapon against "the Man". Sell out to Wall Street and start over with something less traceable while being more private and secure.
October 17, 2015, 04:29:07 PM
@ Jorge
Re KnC, they had about 10k coins when they launched the ETN, and based on your numbers they will have mined about 45,000BTC since the launch. ETN issuance is currently stable at about 15k BTC (for the $ note - have not looked at the Euro one - is it even launched yet?)
IIRC correctly they have stated they are in this for fiat and don't hold BTC (except those they are obliged to to back the ETN)
Pretty sure it was member 'dropt' who had the best info on them
Re KnC, they had about 10k coins when they launched the ETN, and based on your numbers they will have mined about 45,000BTC since the launch. ETN issuance is currently stable at about 15k BTC (for the $ note - have not looked at the Euro one - is it even launched yet?)
IIRC correctly they have stated they are in this for fiat and don't hold BTC (except those they are obliged to to back the ETN)
Pretty sure it was member 'dropt' who had the best info on them
October 17, 2015, 04:27:05 PM
... Could you offer TL;DR of how you've arrived at 250MW? Not doubting you, just wondering what that number is meant to represent.
The network is at 500 petahash and the machines are pulling an average of 0.5w/gh (Ant s3 0.7w/gh, SP-tech 0.6w/gh, ant s5 0.5w/gh and newer gear 0.25w/gh).
You might be missing some details:
1. It's safe to assume that any [already purchased] gear will be kept online as long as it mines more coin than it costs to run. And 'costs to run' = electricity + cheap warehouse space.
2. Also non-miner electrical costs (Cooling ~37% of electricity used in a [real] data center). Yeah, Chinese chicken coops are less exotic than actual data centers, but still...
Many mining companies are folding, making me think that mining costs are beginning to approach coin price (as satoshi predicted). If that's the case...
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