Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20782. (Read 26608361 times)

legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1014
Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC
Maybe I'm late for the party. But have you seen this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpw7b-zsnKw
Who is this guy??

hamasJonasGahrStøre       Grin Cheesy


It's a bird! It's a plane! It's Jonas Gahr Støre!
sr. member
Activity: 293
Merit: 250
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht
Maybe I'm late for the party. But have you seen this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpw7b-zsnKw

He had a bigger hit with a song about his favourite bitch or something. No idea why he's named Bitcoin though.
hero member
Activity: 748
Merit: 500
Bitcoin has stabilized permanently.

Crashing from $1200 to $10 is impossible indiscriminately ......... so Btc needs some times to rest For finishing it's mission ..........

What is the mission?
full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 251
Maybe I'm late for the party. But have you seen this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xpw7b-zsnKw
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
Bitcoin has stabilized permanently.

Crashing from $1200 to $10 is impossible indiscriminately ......... so Btc needs some times to rest For finishing it's mission ..........
hero member
Activity: 737
Merit: 500
Bitcoin expert on Bloomberg:  Increasing the block size limit will increase the supply of bitcoins and cause the price to fall, by the law of supply and demand.  

Oh, and in matters of bitcoin should trust only the opinion of people with Ph. D.  

Well, I can agree with that part.  Grin

Ok, to play devil's advocate he's sort of right in a way that laymen will misinterpret and not understand. Recall the basic economics equation MV=PQ
basically, money supply (M) multiplied by velocity (V) equals Price of goods (P) times quantity of goods (Q).

Increasing block size means that bitcoin will have the POTENTIAL of greater velocity, which (if M remains constant or growing at a constant rate) means that (assuming quantity of goods remains constant) Price of goods goes up in BTC which means that the value of Bitcoin will fall.

that's a lot of assumptions that I don't think are warranted.  Q will likely go up massively as the utility of the network expands. For example: people will buy blockspace for timestamps, title records, etc.  also microtransactions.



You assume the quantity of goods remains constant. In this case, you can make that assumption for a closed system where all goods need to be exchanged for BTC. But that's not how it is. Bitcoin competes usually with at least one other local currency. So Q changes with the amount of goods traded for BTC, i.e. it depends on the popularity of BTC. If transactions become scarce, the price of transactions will rise, and Bitcoin will be less attractive as a currency. Hence, the price of BTC will drop, as it will become  less competitive compared to the alternative local fiat currency.

Summarized, if the transactions are throttled, Bitcoin will become less attractive, and hence, cheaper.

I believe I said exactly that. Did you even read all of what I wrote? Yes, I completely agree with you.

Indeed, I misread the last part.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women

if the transactions are throttled, Bitcoin will become less attractive, and hence, cheaper.

on second thought, if Q increases, Velocity increases and M is increasing at a rate of 3600 coins per day, then P also has to increase which would make the value of BTC plummet. Now as you say, this equation really only works in a closed system, so what is the only item that can ONLY be purchased with BTC?  Blockspace. Obviously the cost of blockspace will go down dramatically as supply increases, but that is what will make bitcoin more valuable in dollar terms. increased utility.  If you can buy more blockspace with your BTC, Q increases more or less exactly to the proportion of velocity (V) increasing.  So the equation remains in balance.

So I actually agree with you. Bitcoin buys one thing directly: the ability to write on the block chain. What we are really investing in is shares of the blockchain. As the blockchain size increases, it becomes more valuable in the greater economy, assuming the quality of the information it contains remains constant. That is a pretty big assumption however and I think quality will likely go down a little, but NOT IN PROPORTION to INCREASED SIZE. It costs BTC to spam the network. Spam is prevalent only where it is very cheap or free. There will be spam, but not nearly as much proportionally to (for example) my email inbox.  Factor in certain miners not including dust xactions and spam becomes only a miner (heh) nuisance.

Now miners may gripe that they are bearing a disproportional burden in policing spam, and that's true but only in BTC terms. We the users will pay them more fiat for BTC that can do more writing on the blockchain, so they will actually profit more in fiat terms.  

hero member
Activity: 737
Merit: 500
Bitcoin expert on Bloomberg:  Increasing the block size limit will increase the supply of bitcoins and cause the price to fall, by the law of supply and demand.  

Oh, and in matters of bitcoin should trust only the opinion of people with Ph. D.  

Well, I can agree with that part.  Grin

Ok, to play devil's advocate he's sort of right in a way that laymen will misinterpret and not understand. Recall the basic economics equation MV=PQ
basically, money supply (M) multiplied by velocity (V) equals Price of goods (P) times quantity of goods (Q).

Increasing block size means that bitcoin will have the POTENTIAL of greater velocity, which (if M remains constant or growing at a constant rate) means that (assuming quantity of goods remains constant) Price of goods goes up in BTC which means that the value of Bitcoin will fall.

that's a lot of assumptions that I don't think are warranted.  Q will likely go up massively as the utility of the network expands. For example: people will buy blockspace for timestamps, title records, etc.  also microtransactions.



You assume the quantity of goods remains constant. In this case, you can make that assumption for a closed system where all goods need to be exchanged for BTC. But that's not how it is. Bitcoin competes usually with at least one other local currency. So Q changes with the amount of goods traded for BTC, i.e. it depends on the popularity of BTC. If transactions become scarce, the price of transactions will rise, and Bitcoin will be less attractive as a currency. Hence, the price of BTC will drop, as it will become  less competitive compared to the alternative local fiat currency.

Summarized, if the transactions are throttled, Bitcoin will become less attractive, and hence, cheaper.
member
Activity: 61
Merit: 10
Bitcoin expert on Bloomberg:  Increasing the block size limit will increase the supply of bitcoins and cause the price to fall, by the law of supply and demand. 

Oh, and in matters of bitcoin should trust only the opinion of people with Ph. D. 

Well, I can agree with that part.  Grin
Did he really just call Gavin Andresen and Mike Hearn "outliers" and talked about their lack of phd? Shocked
And his statement that higher TPS will lead to lower price... How much does he earn for talking such truths? [I assume he's right because he has phd, right?]
hero member
Activity: 737
Merit: 500
Bitcoin expert on Bloomberg:  Increasing the block size limit will increase the supply of bitcoins and cause the price to fall, by the law of supply and demand. 

Oh, and in matters of bitcoin should trust only the opinion of people with Ph. D. 

Well, I can agree with that part.  Grin

Anthem Blanchard (Anthem Vault CEO):
"Increasing the number of transactions per block will lower the price of bitcoin (the currency, with a small b), because ultimately more transactions will go through. [...] We have to really understand why they [the Core developers] aren't on board, and that's not really clear, yet."

Total bullshit, of course, except for the last part. Indeed, it isn't clear why the Core-devs want to limit the number of transactions to 2.7 per second, resulting in an artificial scarcity of transactions some time next year, effectively halting the growth of Bitcoin. They say that more transactions leads to centralization (implying that a crippled Bitcoin is better than a more centralized Bitcoin), but that is rather illogical. So yes, we do need to understand why the Core-devs try to enforce something illogical.

I don't even want to say anything about James McQuivey (a principal analyst, really?), who confirms that more transactions leads to more bitcoins. Jeez...  Shocked

p.s. I have a Ph.D.
full member
Activity: 122
Merit: 100
Quote

XT   - 132 (29.5%)
Core   - 223 (49.8%)
IDK   - 93 (20.8%)
Core lost 50%!
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
Bitcoin expert on Bloomberg:  Increasing the block size limit will increase the supply of bitcoins and cause the price to fall, by the law of supply and demand.  

Oh, and in matters of bitcoin should trust only the opinion of people with Ph. D.  

Well, I can agree with that part.  Grin

Ok, to play devil's advocate he's sort of right in a way that laymen will misinterpret and not understand. Recall the basic economics equation MV=PQ
basically, money supply (M) multiplied by velocity (V) equals Price of goods (P) times quantity of goods (Q).

Increasing block size means that bitcoin will have the POTENTIAL of greater velocity, which (if M remains constant or growing at a constant rate) means that (assuming quantity of goods remains constant) Price of goods goes up in BTC which means that the value of Bitcoin will fall.

that's a lot of assumptions that I don't think are warranted.  Q will likely go up massively as the utility of the network expands. For example: people will buy blockspace for timestamps, title records, etc.  also microtransactions.

member
Activity: 61
Merit: 10
Bitcoin has stabilized permanently.

Am I doing this right?
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
cui bono? Who benefits from small blocks?  Some one or group of people is stalling the scaling upgrade for reasons other than decentralization, security, etc.  From the videos of the conference, i get the idea that some is pulling strings behind the scenes to manipulate the hold outs. The technical objections seem contrived, like the arguments of a mob lawyer.

Why do the haterz hate so much? Luddites? I don't think so.  I think it's something more cynical than that. I don't think the power behind the small blockers is ideological or technical. It's political.The big blockers didn't seem to grasp that we're up against someone or group that plays dirty.  So who is it? Not the pawns on the chessboard, but the power that's moving the pieces. Who is it? Cui bono?

and that MC was painfully terrible.

It was revealed that the Bitcoin XP thing was just a ploy to implement Mike Hearn's blacklisting code. I used to support it until I saw that.

First of all, it's "XT" not XP/
Second of all, the node switch is to allow miners to not deal with slow onion routers if they chose. It's optional.

Thirdly, I didn't even mention XT. I said bigger blocks. Scaling. It doesn't matter as much how they do it so long as they do it soon.

This is what I'm talking about. These bullshit objections that we've answered dozens of times. It's like small blockers WANT Bitcoin to be insignificant and irrelevant. Seven transactions per second tops is insuficient to make bitcoin more than a curiosity. It has to scale
Jump to: