Technically that's a gross oversimplification of the math and processes involved. It will tighten supply, which could send the price up tenfold. Unless it disrupts the mining industry in such a way that it sends BTC plummeting.
A tightened supply is only a factor if there's increasing demand. Right now there are more than enough existing coins for everyone and mined coins are only a fraction of daily volume. Maybe there'll be a psychosomatic boost but I hope people aren't pinning too much on it.
Even just keeping current demand will ensure a rise in price when there is a smaller supply.
since january the price has been in the $200-$300 range and it is changing according to manipulation ie a few players altering the market so I do not think we have "normal' demand as in other sectors that might alter a little to some small change in the rate if of supply (like the halving).
so we will never know ie I expect after the halving for the price to still be in the $200-$300 range if the few players wish for it to be so.
so its not about supply but demand (or rather the lack of it). we need a demand test like the amount of new money that COIN might attract to get a feel where the price might go. If the new comers do not buy in at a $200-$300 level then it is an indication it is too high to get demand
