Author

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 20934. (Read 26608487 times)

legendary
Activity: 1554
Merit: 1014
Make Bitcoin glow with ENIAC

I understand, and it is a valid standpoint. I am agnostic in this blocksize debate, precisely because none of us can tell the future. Not FUDding at all, it will be sorted out one way or another, for economical reasons (too much people has too much capital - time, knowledge, money - invested in). Also, living in the present and thinking about the future - in my view - are not exclusive options.

About the Moore's law and Intel CEO: the reason for slowing as i see is that market demand for rapid progression is slowing down - the average consumer PC/tablet/smart phone is "good enough" hardware to be ok already (office use, gaming, design, etc.), no pressure to upgrade every 1-2 years. So naturally, a hardware supplier will say "progress halted". If market demand would be huge for new computing capacity, they would spend way more on R&D, since they can profit on the new product, and Moore's law would hold up.
for example, bitcoin mining was the main drive force behind new chip fabrication development in the last 2-3 years, precisely because it could turn on profit!

Your point is apt, but the current slowing of Moore's law has more to do with the physics of making smaller and smaller fabrication nodes. There is more money flowing into processor development now than ever before.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht

About the Moore's law and Intel CEO: the reason for slowing as i see is that market demand for rapid progression is slowing down - the average consumer PC/tablet/smart phone is "good enough" hardware to be ok already (office use, gaming, design, etc.), no pressure to upgrade every 1-2 years. So naturally, a hardware supplier will say "progress halted". If market demand would be huge for new computing capacity, they would spend way more on R&D, since they can profit on the new product, and Moore's law would hold up.


My laptop is 6 years old. I just bought another one the other day and the specs are only about 10-20% higher at a similar level.

Consumer hardware may well slow down to a crawl, in fact it pretty much has compared to progress through the 90s and early 2000s, but demand for storage and bandwidth will be ever increasing as more and more facets of life move onto the net and hard copies of media fall by the wayside.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1000
sr. member
Activity: 401
Merit: 280


Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

hmmyea... but no.

The CEO of Intel suggested 'Moore's Law' is finally coming to an end
http://uk.businessinsider.com/intel-ceo-brian-krzanich-suggests-moores-law-is-over-2015-7?r=US&IR=T

Intel scientists find wall for Moore's Law
http://www.cnet.com/news/intel-scientists-find-wall-for-moores-law/


when you dont qualify, you stfu.


edit: bonus: The impending end of Moore's Law is not Intel's biggest problem: http://www.itworld.com/article/2949368/hardware/the-impending-end-of-moores-law-is-not-intels-biggest-problem.html

First, do not need to be rude Sir.
Second, i think we both agree how so many times people were sure something is not gonna work, and yet it did, You can not be serious to extrapolate 30 years of future scientific progress today...Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

i dont extrapolate.
i live in the present.
its the pro blocksize fudsters that are retards extrapolating futuristic nonsense.

+its not me saying moore's law is coming to an end. it's intel's friggin CEO.


I understand, and it is a valid standpoint. I am agnostic in this blocksize debate, precisely because none of us can tell the future. Not FUDding at all, it will be sorted out one way or another, for economical reasons (too much people has too much capital - time, knowledge, money - invested in). Also, living in the present and thinking about the future - in my view - are not exclusive options.

About the Moore's law and Intel CEO: the reason for slowing as i see is that market demand for rapid progression is slowing down - the average consumer PC/tablet/smart phone is "good enough" hardware to be ok already (office use, gaming, design, etc.), no pressure to upgrade every 1-2 years. So naturally, a hardware supplier will say "progress halted". If market demand would be huge for new computing capacity, they would spend way more on R&D, since they can profit on the new product, and Moore's law would hold up.
for example, bitcoin mining was the main drive force behind new chip fabrication development in the last 2-3 years, precisely because it could turn on profit!
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
...Do you might also know some positive points about lightning?
..

Transaction confirmations should be instant.

I'd risk $10-$20 on the network at any one time in order to have the flexibility of instant confirmations for buying small items - buying coffee is the often touted use case.

But, the ease of use needs to compete with SPVs. So it should come down to whether Bitcoin payment processors are happy to enable instant confirmation for retailers or if they would rather push that onto the Lightning network.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002


Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

hmmyea... but no.

The CEO of Intel suggested 'Moore's Law' is finally coming to an end
http://uk.businessinsider.com/intel-ceo-brian-krzanich-suggests-moores-law-is-over-2015-7?r=US&IR=T

Intel scientists find wall for Moore's Law
http://www.cnet.com/news/intel-scientists-find-wall-for-moores-law/


when you dont qualify, you stfu.


edit: bonus: The impending end of Moore's Law is not Intel's biggest problem: http://www.itworld.com/article/2949368/hardware/the-impending-end-of-moores-law-is-not-intels-biggest-problem.html

First, do not need to be rude Sir.
Second, i think we both agree how so many times people were sure something is not gonna work, and yet it did, You can not be serious to extrapolate 30 years of future scientific progress today...Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

i dont extrapolate.
i live in the present.
its the pro blocksize fudsters that are retards extrapolating futuristic nonsense.

+its not me saying moore's law is coming to an end. it's intel's friggin CEO.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1008
Delusional crypto obsessionist

Just sharing some information on lighting so we can consider the cons and be better informed:

Lightning is centralized by design. It's something like a centralized ledger that is capable of pushing out finalized transaction states to the real ledger at anytime.
Just like almost all exchanges are currently doing.
But those exchanges are 100% off chain. Better put it on chain and sync with it every 30 days or so.
Much better to prove solvency and shit.

Quote
Drawbacks:
- It screws with the UTXO set, because you can't tell where the money actually is in the system
For a certain amount of time. I believe 30 days or so were proposed.

Quote
- It's 100% centralized and could be prone to regulation. I've seen them talk about this and they say if the centralized node starts to whitelist addresses or something to that effect, they'll just start another one.
It's called 'free market'.
You don't have to trade with that particular entity.
If you don't like it, use the main chain and pay a (higher) fee.

Quote
- It's incredibly complicated and will be prone to errors for the first year or two
Planes and rockets are also complicated.
Whenever there is progress, errors are made in the process. It's called evolution.
Sit still and you die.

Quote
- It's not really that useful if you're paying different people with every transaction you do. It's more useful for subscriptions or companies that are paying each other all of the time.
This is not a drawback but a feature.
It is offloading the main chain.
There is no advantage to record each throw of a dice on the main chain. Just send the balance at the end of the day. (https://pocketdice.io/ for example)
Let them use the lightning network so we can keep the main chain cheap(er).


Quote
Lightning brings in the following
1) Centralization
2) trusting third parties
3) possible exploits.

I'm very happy to know XT is totally unable to have any exploit at all.
Do you might also know some positive points about lightning?


Quote
Here is the article from Mike Hearn on the subject:

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-capacity-cliff-586d1bf7715e

I'll go and read it.
sr. member
Activity: 401
Merit: 280


Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

hmmyea... but no.

The CEO of Intel suggested 'Moore's Law' is finally coming to an end
http://uk.businessinsider.com/intel-ceo-brian-krzanich-suggests-moores-law-is-over-2015-7?r=US&IR=T

Intel scientists find wall for Moore's Law
http://www.cnet.com/news/intel-scientists-find-wall-for-moores-law/


when you dont qualify, you stfu.


edit: bonus: The impending end of Moore's Law is not Intel's biggest problem: http://www.itworld.com/article/2949368/hardware/the-impending-end-of-moores-law-is-not-intels-biggest-problem.html

First, do not need to be rude Sir.
Second, i think we both agree how so many times people were sure something is not gonna work, and yet it did, You can not be serious to extrapolate 30 years of future scientific progress today...Also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).
Rate of progress drastically slowed lately:
* 2000: 200 MB
* 2004: 2 GB (x 10)
* 2008: 1.5 TB (almost x 1000) <<< this is the oddity that gave everyone the wrong impression
* 2012: 4 TB (x2.7)
* 2016: 10 TB (x2.5)

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hard_disk_drives#1980s.2C_the_PC_era)

Short of a new tech breakthrough, we won't get Petabyte drives soon, and SSD + cloud storage mean that people usually make do with less HDD storage these days than in 2010.





my blockchain is kept on three 1tb hard drives raid 1 striped which gives me 3tb and fast (all three hard drives read/write data at the same time) .. i can download and index the entire blockchain in just a few hours...  os drives are 512Gb ssd's .. and file storage is kept on nas with 5 x 3tb hard drives in raid 5 or 6 (i cant remember) equals about 8tb. i think raid 6 or maybe is raid 50 because i can lose two hard drives and data stays safe. hard drive space really should not be a problem .. stop buying cheesy best buy pc's will help alot with blockchain management.
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
Its now do or die time for Chinese investors. The government encouraged margin trading too soon. It now needs to step-up and buy up shit stocks.

Margin trading stocks has wiped out most retail investors, including many that had some stakes in Bitcoin trading. This might be an extended downturn fueled by Chinese exchanges and Chinese investors that are now broke.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
 intentionally throttling the network to collect more fees is like strangling the golden goose to get more eggs.

Or like jumping out of a certain wooden sculpture when the walls of Troy first come into view?

Our like trying to charge money for an infinite resource?

Bip 101 timescale:

Year.  Size.  Reward.  blockchain size (rough estimate)
2016  8MB.  12.5.     40GB
2020  32MB  6.25.     3.4TB
2024. 128MB  3.125.  16.8TB
2028. 512MB  1.5625.  70.56TB
2032  2048MB  0.78125.  285.6TB
2036  8192MB  0.390625.  1145TB

How many individuals do you think will be incentivized to store more than a petabyte of data with no compensation? The good news is that Gavin's plan is preposterous and will never gain traction, so fortunately there's nothing to worry about.  Cool

2036 is in 21 years. How big was a hard drive 21 years ago?  (hint: a tiny fraction of the storage on my current 3 year old phone).  Storage is so cheap now that if you include cloud storage like dropbox, it's free.
This is the same fallacy the Malthusians made about mass starvation with population doubling every forty years.  Didn't happen. All famines today are political, including ours.


some people have no foresight  Cheesy

Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

Yes, but my FLAC collection has already replaced my crappy MP3 collection and fits easily on a <1TB HDD.
Also my gazillion high res photo collection doesn't give a fuck about storage space.
There is no incentive for me to buy larger HDD's because I'm already drowing in free space unlike 10 years ago.

Lossless bitcoin compression (lightning network) is the way forward.
Converting MP3 to WAV is like increasing the blocksize and pretending it's better.

Just sharing some information on lighting so we can consider the cons and be better informed:

Quote
Lightning is centralized by design. It's something like a centralized ledger that is capable of pushing out finalized transaction states to the real ledger at anytime.

Drawbacks:
- It screws with the UTXO set, because you can't tell where the money actually is in the system
- It's 100% centralized and could be prone to regulation. I've seen them talk about this and they say if the centralized node starts to whitelist addresses or something to that effect, they'll just start another one.
- It's incredibly complicated and will be prone to errors for the first year or two
- It's not really that useful if you're paying different people with every transaction you do. It's more useful for subscriptions or companies that are paying each other all of the time.

Quote
Lightning brings in the following

1) Centralization
2) trusting third parties
3) possible exploits.

In such a system, people are more motivated to find ways to create false tokens/cheat the system than they are to work by the rules. It basically throws out all the meticulous work that goes into ensuring consensus in favour of trusting someone to have your best interests  in mind. Such a system is a design failure from the word go and has no place in a world directed by cryptography and trustless systems. One wrong move and we can have a couple of billion "bitcoins" introduced into the system with no way to verify which one is authentic and which is not.

Quote
The so-called “Lightning network” that is being pushed as an alternative to Satoshi’s design does not exist. The paper describing it was only published earlier this year. If implemented, it would represent a vast departure from the Bitcoin we all know and love. To pick just one difference amongst many, Bitcoin addresses wouldn’t work. What they’d be replaced with has not been worked out (because nobody knows). There are many other surprising gotchas, which I published an article about. It’s deeply unclear that whatever is finally produced would be better than the Bitcoin we have now.

Here is the article from Mike Hearn on the subject:

https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-capacity-cliff-586d1bf7715e
sr. member
Activity: 344
Merit: 250
Things are looking bad. Even GBTC is finding new lows.

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
...go onto trading view and find me a chart where someone else is using BFX...

IME "real traders" do not share their charts, the only ones that do are pros with a view and baseline amateurs (like me).

This trend happened, and interestingly enough the low spike before it was on a trend as well


I was lucky a few month ago (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/calling-a-five-months-target-at-211-next-prediction-on-page-7-839312), my crystal ball gives a a target at $230 on early November/late October, and $250 around March 2016, with some movement in between, including a possible new low near $150. Feel free to disbelieve and laugh if I am wrong Smiley


I'm not saying your wrong and I wouldn't laugh at you (only bag holding $500+ perma bulls get laughed at) , its all TA, its all opinions and probabilities but trust me you're the only one using that spike as part of your TA.

Who in their right mind uses one random spike on one exchange to base their trend lines off.

I'm only trying to help you out. If you consider yourself an amateur then learn, do not use one random spike on one exchange to base your TA off.



coinbase spiked well below 200 during that flash crash ... i need finish building my new secondary pc up and running because obviously two monitors is not enough during times like these.
legendary
Activity: 1100
Merit: 1032
To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).
Rate of progress drastically slowed lately:
* 2000: 200 MB
* 2004: 2 GB (x 10)
* 2008: 1.5 TB (almost x 1000) <<< this is the oddity that gave everyone the wrong impression
* 2012: 4 TB (x2.7)
* 2016: 10 TB (x2.5)

(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_hard_disk_drives#1980s.2C_the_PC_era)

Short of a new tech breakthrough, we won't get Petabyte drives soon, and SSD + cloud storage mean that people usually make do with less HDD storage these days than in 2010.

legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1008
Delusional crypto obsessionist
 intentionally throttling the network to collect more fees is like strangling the golden goose to get more eggs.

Or like jumping out of a certain wooden sculpture when the walls of Troy first come into view?

Our like trying to charge money for an infinite resource?

Bip 101 timescale:

Year.  Size.  Reward.  blockchain size (rough estimate)
2016  8MB.  12.5.     40GB
2020  32MB  6.25.     3.4TB
2024. 128MB  3.125.  16.8TB
2028. 512MB  1.5625.  70.56TB
2032  2048MB  0.78125.  285.6TB
2036  8192MB  0.390625.  1145TB

How many individuals do you think will be incentivized to store more than a petabyte of data with no compensation? The good news is that Gavin's plan is preposterous and will never gain traction, so fortunately there's nothing to worry about.  Cool

2036 is in 21 years. How big was a hard drive 21 years ago?  (hint: a tiny fraction of the storage on my current 3 year old phone).  Storage is so cheap now that if you include cloud storage like dropbox, it's free.
This is the same fallacy the Malthusians made about mass starvation with population doubling every forty years.  Didn't happen. All famines today are political, including ours.


some people have no foresight  Cheesy

Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

Yes, but my FLAC collection has already replaced my crappy MP3 collection and fits easily on a <1TB HDD.
Also my gazillion high res photo collection doesn't give a fuck about storage space.
There is no incentive for me to buy larger HDD's because I'm already drowing in free space unlike 10 years ago.

Lossless bitcoin compression (lightning network) is the way forward.
Converting MP3 to WAV is like increasing the blocksize and pretending it's better.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
It's Not Enough
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
...go onto trading view and find me a chart where someone else is using BFX...

IME "real traders" do not share their charts, the only ones that do are pros with a view and baseline amateurs (like me).

This trend happened, and interestingly enough the low spike before it was on a trend as well


I was lucky a few month ago (https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/calling-a-five-months-target-at-211-next-prediction-on-page-7-839312), my crystal ball gives a a target at $230 on early November/late October, and $250 around March 2016, with some movement in between, including a possible new low near $150. Feel free to disbelieve and laugh if I am wrong Smiley


I'm not saying your wrong and I wouldn't laugh at you (only bag holding $500+ perma bulls get laughed at) , its all TA, its all opinions and probabilities but trust me you're the only one using that spike as part of your TA.

Who in their right mind uses one random spike on one exchange to base their trend lines off.

I'm only trying to help you out. If you consider yourself an amateur then learn, do not use one random spike on one exchange to base your TA off.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1002
 intentionally throttling the network to collect more fees is like strangling the golden goose to get more eggs.

Or like jumping out of a certain wooden sculpture when the walls of Troy first come into view?

Our like trying to charge money for an infinite resource?

Bip 101 timescale:

Year.  Size.  Reward.  blockchain size (rough estimate)
2016  8MB.  12.5.     40GB
2020  32MB  6.25.     3.4TB
2024. 128MB  3.125.  16.8TB
2028. 512MB  1.5625.  70.56TB
2032  2048MB  0.78125.  285.6TB
2036  8192MB  0.390625.  1145TB

How many individuals do you think will be incentivized to store more than a petabyte of data with no compensation? The good news is that Gavin's plan is preposterous and will never gain traction, so fortunately there's nothing to worry about.  Cool

2036 is in 21 years. How big was a hard drive 21 years ago?  (hint: a tiny fraction of the storage on my current 3 year old phone).  Storage is so cheap now that if you include cloud storage like dropbox, it's free.
This is the same fallacy the Malthusians made about mass starvation with population doubling every forty years.  Didn't happen. All famines today are political, including ours.


some people have no foresight  Cheesy

Indeed. http://royal.pingdom.com/2010/02/18/amazing-facts-and-figures-about-the-evolution-of-hard-disk-drives/

To sum it up: price per GB from 1980 to 2010 : 300.000 USD to few cents (less than 1 USD). Max HDD space on average home user HDD went from : 2.520 MBs to 2.000.000 MBs. (an almost 800x increase on a single HDD in an average home PC!).

hmmyea... but no.

The CEO of Intel suggested 'Moore's Law' is finally coming to an end
http://uk.businessinsider.com/intel-ceo-brian-krzanich-suggests-moores-law-is-over-2015-7?r=US&IR=T

Intel scientists find wall for Moore's Law
http://www.cnet.com/news/intel-scientists-find-wall-for-moores-law/


when you dont qualify, you stfu.


edit: bonus: The impending end of Moore's Law is not Intel's biggest problem: http://www.itworld.com/article/2949368/hardware/the-impending-end-of-moores-law-is-not-intels-biggest-problem.html
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