Here is what I am seeing on the long-term chart. Appears that we are in a tight rising wedge that goes back to early 2013.
The upper and lower bounds of the wedge touch very precisely in roughly 5 spots each which tells me this isn't a coincidence. We recently tested the upper bound at roughly 315 and failed to breakout. Testing the upper bound was bullish, but failing to breakout above it was bearish. In order for me to turn ultra bullish I would like to see us...
1. Breakout above the upper bound considerably to roughly 415 (area of support in April/May of 2014 which became resistance in Oct/Nov of 2014)
2. Retrace back to the breakout point to test the upper bound to see if transitioned to support
3. Bounce off the upper bound (which would be below the BTC price at this point in this scenario) and head back towards 415
Even though I am not ultra bullish, I still own some coins and think the risk is to the upside for the following reasons...
1. The 50 day moving average is now above 200 day moving average and trending upwards signaling near-term momentum is on our side
2. The wedge in the above picture is a rising wedge which obviously is better than a falling wedge
3. Bitcoin adoption and investment continues to rise while volatility continues to fall
see link --->
https://blog.coinbase.com/2015/07/15/bitcoin-trends-in-1h-2015/I'd like to hear some opinions on these thoughts. Any takers?
