Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 21315. (Read 26714748 times)

Here we go?

willy....those were fun times. 

We are talking of fake trades that make 30-80% of all trades, continues for months, totaling on 570,000 BTC purchased for non-existing dollars. Is there something of such scale happening on OkCoin? Is there are reasons to suspect that most of fiat on OkCoin customer's accounts does not really exist?

For those who don't know, masterluc has made some exceedingly accurate calls in the past - just check his history, he's one of the best and most consistent analysts that posts here in my opinion.  here's my personal favorite:


that one always made me grin, and made the inexorable drop over the next year more bearable, if only because it was expected...


Well, he's back, and never have I seen such a bullish report:


I'm still hoping for a flat summer. "As low as possible for as long as possible." But I'm afraid the accumulation window is closing.

Best of luck gentlemen.  

Analysis never ends

Coin
Explanation

I'm sure China has plenty of willies pumping away but they're staying under the radar. The Gox willy was bright purple and 16 inches long. Subtlety is the key these days.

Ofc I agree, if we break 315$ with confidence this time it could really develop to something different this time.

But for now we are under 300$ with a lot of things coming up next week. (possible Grexit, Chinese Stock market development, etc. etc.)

If there are really new forces buying Bitcoin we shouldn't have a problem going beyond 315$ this time and not become a instable critical mass.

I am very content with holding 295 for a while. Its just one step closer to 300!

Were you watching OkCoin a couple days ago?

There is no Willy this time.

I'm pretty sure you're not stupid, and I hope you're not wrong. A sharp pull-back from here would keep us in the 200-300 range I've been hoping would last all summer. Also would be a real kick in the teeth to all the building hype, so there's that tendency to move in the direction of most pain thing...

But if we break above 300 and stay above 300? -- to me it would be analogous to when we broke and held above $10 after spending almost all of 2012 at +/- $5... meaning not a good time to be in a short position.

Last time I advised or pointed out BTC as an investment was when it was reaching $90.00 lol, even then I felt nervous about informing a close friend of BTC as an investment   of course we all know where BTC went to later that year   that was the most exciting time, well cashing in on BTC at $1100.00 +  

Ahhhh the good old days"  

PS: My friend, well she felt it was to risky at $90.00  

I totally agree. People said the same at litecoin... "This time it's different!" ... yea it was not different at all.


On top, Litecoin started this pump and was leading every leg up ahead of bitcoin.
The last leg up for bitcoin was also the biggest volume on a daily we had for a pretty long time. The last leg to the upside was directly from the LTC dump in China as many coins were dumped on the LTC/BTC pair, which would explain the crazy Pinbar we see on the chinese exchanges.


The recent push trying to break 300$ on western exchanges was in my opinion just a good indicator that this time it is not different.. Just like on LTC... To me this looks really toppish with RSI overbought at every time frame we could see a good retrace here even thought the candles look really bullish.

As for now I took all the profits of my long position and I decided to look for signs to go short.
If we have a strong move through 300 to 315$ I am letting my thoughts fall on this and get ueber bullish again.

If we see a bigger correction right here I am going to look really closely at the dip because if my LTC thoughts are right we will not see enough buy power to buy the dip back up. 95 000 btc margin longs looking for profit are crazy scary compared to just 9 000 btc margin shorts.


Maybe I am wrong and stupid but I am shorting this for now.

I wrote a bot that maintains a dollar-value position in bitcoin for me using BitFinex margin trading.  Speculators like to take risks and push the price around, so I like to absorb the fruits of their labor.

Don't you remember the "general market behavior" of bitcoin from November 2013?



What if this time it's *not* different?

-------------------------------------------------
I'm not trying to advise or chide you for your strategy, everyone does it there own way, based on their own preference and experience. I'm sure you're not the only one looking to scalp the market and that's why it will probably work like a charm...

I'm just posting a reminder that sometimes the market does not act as you think it should. If we have anything like a repeat of that fateful month in November 2013, I will be glad to be well set in a long term, non-leveraged position that was accumulated slowly in the 200's rather than  trying to buy back in after a scalping attempt gone wrong as the market runs away from me.

Best of luck everyone.

Coin
Explanation

Here is a tinfoil hat theory for your amusement: the stress test was part of a pump-and-dump plan for Litecoin.

I have read on /r/bitcoin that some Chinese entity had been pumping Litcoin in China for some time, with ads etc..   Also there I read a testimonial by a BTC day-trader who said he used LTC regularly for arbitrage, to move funds between exchanges -- because of Litecoin's much shorter block interval (2.5 min). 

So, perhaps those same Litecoin pumpers contracted the stress test, for the purpose of pushing as much of that inter-exchange traffic to LTC instead fo BTC, driving up its price even futher -- before the final dump.

In case this has not been posted:

Bitcoin Magazine,  July 11, 2015
Chinese exchanges claim litecoin volatility driving bitcoin price gains, Chinese stock market has little effect

I didn't write this. Please get your quoting right next time.