Topic: Analysis (Read 941579 times)

Dude, Bitcoin Beavers is masterluc.  The OP who started this thread years ago.

Can Bitcoin Beavers help provide the best analysis for Bitcoin prices that will run in the market? I have never found Bitcoin Beavers via Telegram because I didn't know that there was a group for analyzing Bitcoin prices. So before I join Bitcoin Beavers, I want to know your explanation about what things are discussed in Bitcoin Beavers. Because I still think that making an analysis about anything is not easy enough for everyone, especially when it comes to the price of Bitcoin.

follow "Bitcoin Beavers" onTelegram

Bump. masterluc's last post in TradingView.


Does anyone know what masterluc's latest projection on Bitcoin currently is and his latest takes on the market in general? This was his last post in TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

That was posted last October 2, 2021. That's two years ago, and he was always very bullish. Perhaps it's the same bullishness today, but maybe that changed when QT started + Russo-Ukraine War?

Bcё-тaки зaтяжнaя мeдвeжaтинa этo peaльнocть. Oчeнь бы xoтeлocь eщё нa coтoчкy cxoдить, нo yвы и ax. Bce тaки нa нeдeльныx paзвopoтнaя фигypa двoйнoй тoп. Этa вcя xyйня бyдeт пaдaть нa 9к. Brace...

Still, lingering bear meat is a reality. I would very much like to go another hundred, but alas, ah. All the same, on the weekly double top reversal pattern. All this bullshit will fall on 9k. Brace...

Can one of the Russian speakers please confirm or disconfirm whether Beaver is saying bitcoin's price could hit $9k?

Another Telegram post from the master a few days ago:

Бeзoпacнo пaдaть мoжнo aж дo 35700. Пoкa дepжимcя дoлгocpoчнoгo вocxoдящeгo тpeндa.

We are safe to fall right up to 35700.  For now, we are holding on to a long-term trend.

https://t.me/wangabtc/171

the Big Beaver has a new post on Telegram.  He posted an image of some Russian text, something he was quoting.   I used the Google Translate camera and the translation came out:

Termination of Russian gas supplies threatens Europe with at least 10 years of recession.  So say German analysts.  At the same time, the world's energy crisis has been predicted for a long time.  Now it is getting worse.  That's what I've been saying for a long time, including here.  We are waiting for 10 years.  And Russia.  And not Russia, And all.

Vanga's own comment is this

Boт и я гoвopю дaвнo, в тoм чиcлe здecь. Hac oжидaeт 10 лeт пoлнoй ().()
И Poccию. И нe Poccию. И вcex.

which translates as

That's what I've been saying for a long time, including here.  We are waiting for 10 years of full ().()
And Russia.  And not Russia.  And everyone.

If you've been reading the eggheads on the macroeconomic implications of this geopolitical clusterfuck, there's a lot more to it than just recession.  This will lead to a sea change in the way sovereigns treat money, away from trusting permissioned fiat (i.e. the dollar, SWIFT, U.S. Treasuries etc.) and toward commodity money.
The confiscation of Russia's reserves has put the nations of the world on notice that the capital they've saved up through decades of trade can simply disappear at any moment.  
Say good-bye to dollar hegemony, and light a candle for the memory of Bretton Woods.
Say hello to massive inflation in the West, and celebrate the birth of a new Russia/China axis.

Don't miss the train.

Is this really a full cycle or is it just a sub-cycle?

But yes if true then I suspect that prices would be much more stable assuming institutional investors aren't as fickle / prone to panic is retail. Anyone's guess though.

sorry, which one is the new thread?

One of the problems of failing/refusing to sufficiently and adequately prepare for UP is that you end up getting screwed when the price ends up going UP while you had been waiting for bargain prices that had way lower chances of happening than you had projected them out to be.

Accordingly, there had been opportunities to get BTC for $13k to $14k cheaper than current prices, so now if you have a bunch of fiat in your hands (bank accounts) that had been dedicated to buying bitcoin, you have tough choices regarding whether to buy now, and it even could be the last time that you are able to get BTC for under $50k.. when surely you had around 2 months to buy BTC much cheaper.. even less than two weeks ago you could have still bought some BTC in the $30ks.. so yeah, surely problems with trying to time the market.. when DCA is frequently a bit of a better strategy, at least if you are trying to prepare for UP.. even if with DCA you might end up buying some BTC at higher prices, at least you are able to contiunue to stack it. and sometimes you may well not even notice the difference if you bought some at $35k versus $40k versus $43k.. especially when later the prices are touching upon $47k without any guarantee that they are going to be going much if at all lower than that.

... 80k was what I was thinking to, maybe 79k

This thread is an old thread that is being made since  three years ago, so the discussion is something that is we rebrand or reframe because of the analysis of bitcoin then and analysis of current Bitcoin is not the same due of the values changes, Bitcoin is getting difficult to increase because war,so I'm not perfect to analyze better of it increment

Shower thought. Is the market current cycle the first time for Bitcoin not to go through a -90% bear cycle? Should I cancel my bids placed at the 200-weekly SMA, and buy the current DIPs? Is the Terra billionaire's move in the Bitcoin market a confirmation for plebs to buy before FOMO?

New telegram post by the master in Bitcoin Beavers

Oчeнь жиpнaя бычья дивepгeнция нa нeдeльнoм. Пoxoжe идём нa 80к.

Very bold bullish divergence on the weekly. Looks like we're going to 80k.

I believe the asset most held by the rich that would surge in price during the first type inflation would be real estate, which should also affect the plebs through purchasing, and rental costs. But more research necessary what the effect would be if it continued for 10 more years. It's hard for me to believe that the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet would be sustainable without having inflationary problems, and we blame it only to supply constraints.

Doesn't matter what is excluded from CPI or not, shadowstats inflation numbers may indeed be more accurate, but so long as the measure is consistent enough the amounts don't matter. But, it's very important to know the difference between the 2 types of inflation as they have very different drivers (most of the time) and effects on the economy/assets.

Not naive to think the QE etc. won't find its way into our CPI pleb inflation. We have more than 10 years of CPI (or shadow stats if you prefer) data saying it didn't. Maybe it will in the future, however, the only way that we'll see any CPI inflation from the QE money is if the rich sold their assets and spend that money on consumption. Rich don't do that.

The key thing to understand with all this shit is what actually is money. QE is not money in the sense most people understand it, it is capital reserves, plebs can't use this money. Fiscal is the money that people can see in their bank account and can actually be used.

2 types of brrrrr. 1st is printed by the central banks (reserves). 2nd is printed by the private banks (through new debt creation) and is what is in your bank account. It's a seriously interesting topic, and shows why us plebs need Bitcoin.

I believe that's also known as BRRR money printing.

Plus it would be naive to believe that the money printing before 2020 that went to the rich wouldn't find its way down to the plebs like us.


I will do my research about CPI, but I have heard some debates that CPI excludes some sectors of the economy, making it look inflation is under control.

The monetary inflation (QE etc.), which we have had a massive amount of since 2008 has increased asset prices only. If you care to look over the inflation numbers since that time you'll notice that not only are assets up a hell of a lot, but also CPI inflation was low up until 2021.

So all that Brrr money did nothing to CPI until recently, why? Because giving money to the rich via monetary inflation over a decade doesn't push up the CPI, only asset prices. The rich invest 99% of their wealth, hence no CPI impact. What pushed up CPI starting from last year? Massive fiscal (money to the poor) stimulus, the poor spend 99% of their wealth hence increase in CPI, combined with massive supply constraints.

Up until the Ukraine invasion these supply constraints had peaked, but with the invasion and the sanctions that went with it, along with Covid close downs now in China, those supply issues will probably be around for at least another year.

So yes CPI inflation will now remain high until all that changes. At the moment there aren’t any fiscal responses, but if that does happen, expect more CPI inflation.

Honestly, it’s really not too hard to understand, there are 2 types of inflation, CPI and monetary, both move around for mostly very different reasons, but on a rare occasion it can be the same reason.

Edit: I do believe some of the brrr money had an effect, the fiscal stimulus side only, but the monetary inflation since 2008 did not. Fiscal ended a while ago now, if it doesn't start again and CPI reamins high it will be that way because of the supply issues.

Hahaha. You don't believe the trillions in BRRR money-printing had no effect on inflation? They also said inflation is "transitory". Stop listening to "them".

Plus this was masterluc's latest post about Bitcoin, which was posted during March 1.


Are the DIPS still for buying?