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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 21925. (Read 26610061 times)

hero member
Activity: 910
Merit: 1003
If I understand your philosophy re: Bitcoin, there is only 'the worst':  Either Bitcoin will fail on its own defects, or some government(s) will destroy it, if it works as designed.  Is that a fair summation of your position?

As it says in my signature, I cannot imagine a plausible future where bitcoin will be successful.  I see many ways in which it could fail, those are two of them.  The more I read, the more skeptical I become.

Take the economy of mining, for example. Yesterday I found this paper claiming that the bitcoin mining network now consumes about as much electricity as the whole country of Ireland , ~1 GW.  I found that hard to believe, but it seems correct.  For what? So that some drug dealers can be absolutely certan that their customer will not double-spend them? So that no one can retroactively change the amount that someone spent on Overstock?  So that the police cannot seize the coins of ransomware criminals?

That absurd consumption of energy does not have any rational justification.  It does not even make the network more secure against 51% attacks, because it is still the case that 4-5 mining entities have more than 51% of the hashing power, and that situation is more likely to get worse than better if the network grows more.  Moreover, further price drops and/or the next halving may cause morethan 51% of the hashpower to be turned off -- and may be acquired or rented by a hostile entity, at scrap iron prices.

The absurd consumption of energy is merely a consequence of the block reward being fixed at 50 BTC irrespective of the price, and of the price being 50 times what the current use as currency would imply.  The overvaluation, in turn, is a consequence of the fixed supply, that created the mirage of a currency whose value will grow to astronomic levels; a mirage that led to a spiral of hoarding and absurd price increases.   The overvaluation also resulted in the block reward being 100 times or more the typical fees contained in a block, so that miners have essentially no incentive to include transactions in it.  Worse, the network consumes about 1 million dollars per day that must be provided by new investors, lured by the promise of fabulous speculative gains.  And the absurd will only grow if the price increases again.

This system simply does not make any economic sense.  It is not sustained by sound market principles, but totally by hype, by the belief of gullible people that they will become billionaries if they just buy as much bitcoin as they can and hold hard to it.

From what I have read around, most people who claim to believe in bitcoin's future do so because of various reasons -- because they own bitcoins, because they are employees or investors of bitcoin-related enterprises, because they see it as a way to buy drugs and other illegal things, because of hallucinations about it ending poverty, corruption, banks, governments... but almost never because they rationally believe that it will be a viable currency and efficient payment system.  Which is the only thing that it was designed to be, and it is becoming clear to everybody that it will not be.
legendary
Activity: 1193
Merit: 1003
9.9.2012: I predict that single digits... <- FAIL
Largest spike in BDD since March 2014, nice... should provide bear ammo for the next month. Grin

Only 101 coins moved  Grin

https://blockchain.info/tx/97facbd7e07c4f3140d9ea167c2e54d85bc5f6fd04d9774d80b1284b706920ff
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1047
Largest spike in BDD since March 2014, nice... should provide bear ammo for the next month. Grin

Volume look at the volume and realize what it is.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
Largest spike in BDD since March 2014, nice... should provide bear ammo for the next month. Grin
hero member
Activity: 894
Merit: 501
What's up with the $14 million cny bidwall on huobi?
http://coinsight.org/huobi

It makes me think about the one on coinbase last week. It's good to see giant bid walls being played with again
legendary
Activity: 1792
Merit: 1047
legendary
Activity: 3512
Merit: 4557
Bitcoin back to $220?
legendary
Activity: 3780
Merit: 5429
And for that reason, opponents of totalitarianism are switching to cryptonote's dark ledger.

Anyhow, monkey sees 2-3 hours of downside intraday, followed by another attack on resistance at 237 on the daily chart, which seems likely to succeed this time; but, 296 is almost certain to hold, if it is even achievable before the run down to 180 which monkey expects on the weekly chart.

None of what you wrote makes any sense.
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
And for that reason, opponents of totalitarianism are switching to cryptonote's dark ledger.

Anyhow, monkey sees 2-3 hours of downside intraday, followed by another attack on resistance at 237 on the daily chart, which seems likely to succeed this time; but, 296 is almost certain to hold, if it is even achievable before the run down to 180 which monkey expects on the weekly chart.
sr. member
Activity: 258
Merit: 250
I would expect that it won't be long for someone to suggest a core change which blocks or otherwise restricts transactions against those early addresses.  This would dispel the spectre of the early days and then maybe Satoshi can step out of the shadows and claim credit for his work without risking his life or that of his family/friends.

If bitcoin survives and grows, I think that it is quite likely that the protocol will be amended with a government-mandated "black list" of coins that cannot be moved, and a "white list" of transactions that must be accepted even without a valid signature. 

If bitcoin succeeds, it is even possible that the current blockchain will have to be junked, and a new blockchain be restarted with suitable legal constraints and devices.

In either case, the bitcoiners who understand the goals of bitcoin will surely scream and claim (with reason) that those violations of the basic principles render the coin worthless.  The other 99% will not even understand what the fuss is about, and will mostly ignore the changes, or even approve them...


I think you may have overlooked the fact that blacklisting of coins and addresses already exists in the bitcoin space. It is well known that entry/exit points between bitcoin and fiat exist and that these gatekeepers monitor transactions. It is also know that certain bitcoin addresses have been identified and continue to be monitored. This is evident both in the knowledge of exchange addresses, along with gambling wallet addresses (think justdice), and various darknet markets ( think Agora/SR1/2/etc). We have seen that responsive entities have the ability to successfully track and seize coins and in some instances the community itself has agreed or attempted to block or not propagate bad transactions. But this leads to part of the reason why bitcoin could ultimately succeed. Although it may gut the traditional bread and butter business of various financial and legal business entities, it provides a way to limit money laundering and tax evasion.

Bitcoin is in fact a double edged sword specifically due to the open nature of the public ledger. So long as you have sufficiently secured the entry/exit points, you will have strong currency control. This is what will make it successful and a great benefit to monitoring transactions and preserving public opinion but also has resulted in it being co-opted for an alternative usage. Bitcoin is not a libertarian's answer but the government's answer to cash.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-10/citi-economist-says-it-might-be-time-to-abolish-cash

With Bitcoin you have the ability to track and monitor what every address does with coins. This is an auditor's pie dream. Look at the ease by which the two investigator's were taken down as part of the SilkRoad operation. There was a public trail of everything they did, no matter how hard they tried to cover their tracks. They created LLC's to attempt to wash money and clean their trail but ultimately; bitcoin leaves the bitcoin network and it is at those choke points you are most vulnerable. As it is punishable as an individual to convert bitcoin to cash on behalf of another and many entry/exit points into fiat have begun requesting documentation of mining operations, the future is quite clear; it just hasn't been implemented yet (bitlicense). Welcome to bitcoin 2.0; you trade success and wealth for 24/7 surveillance. I think ultimately even if you don't want it to succeed, it will.

If bitcoin truly offered anonymity, don't you think we would be seeing a little more pushback? I think a better question is to ask why aren't we?
hero member
Activity: 658
Merit: 500
^ or not.

lol ether will perform the most epic crash crypto world has ever seen as soon as trading starts (if ever)
full member
Activity: 660
Merit: 101
Colletrix - Bridging the Physical and Virtual Worl
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.
Damn, what a frustrating price level.  The market sure does love that ~230-ish.

I have one final round of funds to invest long, but can't deal with any more severe down.  I went all in at 230 in January (yes, January!), but recently got back out at 238.  

Want to get back in long, fire and forget, but damn which way are we swinging here?  I'd be more comfortable if we had a confirmed solid support above 200, but don't know if and when we would ever re-test that.

Have you considered that Bitcoin may, in fact, be maturing and becoming more like money? This implies stability. With bitcoin's hallmark volatility gone & progressively tightening government regulation wiping out 'legal gray areas' for us to exploit, bitcoin ceases to be an attractive, semi-legal and, arguably, less stigmatic form of online gambling/money laundering vehicle - the very things which made it so attractive initially.

With Dark Markets proving more and more vulnerable and bitcoin's floundering price (causal relationship here, though seemingly apparent, is far from rigorously proven), the crypto community is becoming more fractured and toxic.


TL;DR: Mom's not coming home 'till late, so...
 ~Lo <3

One of the biggest contributors in making crypto a stupid meme complains that the climate is toxic.. lol. Good, that is a good sign that all these dumb alt developers are giving up and soon natural selection will make BTC reign supreme.

Majority of the top 25 here are a joke (http://coinmarketcap.com/)

Don't forget as well we have Ethereum coming.

legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 1012
oh look bitcoin is now a stable currency

*exiting crypto cause of boredom*

 Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 3015
Welt Am Draht

One of the biggest contributors in making crypto a stupid meme complains that the climate is toxic.. lol. Good, that is a good sign that all these dumb alt developers are giving up and soon natural selection will make BTC reign supreme.


Well, he's right. It won't go anywhere with the current crop. But it wouldn't go anywhere even if everyone was totally lovely. There needs to be a tidal wave of fresh blood whatever their personality type may be. 
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1028
Damn, what a frustrating price level.  The market sure does love that ~230-ish.

I have one final round of funds to invest long, but can't deal with any more severe down.  I went all in at 230 in January (yes, January!), but recently got back out at 238.  

Want to get back in long, fire and forget, but damn which way are we swinging here?  I'd be more comfortable if we had a confirmed solid support above 200, but don't know if and when we would ever re-test that.

Have you considered that Bitcoin may, in fact, be maturing and becoming more like money? This implies stability. With bitcoin's hallmark volatility gone & progressively tightening government regulation wiping out 'legal gray areas' for us to exploit, bitcoin ceases to be an attractive, semi-legal and, arguably, less stigmatic form of online gambling/money laundering vehicle - the very things which made it so attractive initially.

With Dark Markets proving more and more vulnerable and bitcoin's floundering price (causal relationship here, though seemingly apparent, is far from rigorously proven), the crypto community is becoming more fractured and toxic.


TL;DR: Mom's not coming home 'till late, so...
 ~Lo <3

One of the biggest contributors in making crypto a stupid meme complains that the climate is toxic.. lol. Good, that is a good sign that all these dumb alt developers are giving up and soon natural selection will make BTC reign supreme.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1000
What's up with the $14 million cny bidwall on huobi?
http://coinsight.org/huobi
legendary
Activity: 1066
Merit: 1098
Fantasy  ...... Are you feeling ok doc?

I believe that we should always think about the worst that could happen and try to be prepared for it.

http://bizarro.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/172/2013/09/bz-panel-09-30-13.jpg

If I understand your philosophy re: Bitcoin, there is only 'the worst':  Either Bitcoin will fail on its own defects, or some government(s) will destroy it, if it works as designed.  Is that a fair summation of your position?
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