It looks like really slow/boring downside movement, where we will test support around 200-220..if we break that support, damn, it will take long time before we will truly reverse the bear trend...my crystal ball told me that this morning
so i am placing buys on 20 BTC @ 180...do you think its too low / or still too high??
I´d say too high, entire movement since january seems now like H/S pattern, which would point to lower lows 90-130. However 180 is safe bet unless you go in leveraged, bitcoin should recover fairly quickly after crashing to bottom.
Many people predicting 80-120 prices...
i somehow refuse to believe that after so great fundamentals and difficulty x times higher than 2013 summer, i would buy in the same range i was buying most of my coins...i will probably go like 80% of my money to 160-180 and 20% i will hide for the final crash to 100-120 but i really don't believe we will go that low...
Despite what Sr. Stolfi likes to claim about "there being no fundamentals", you are right of course: Bitcoin fundamentals
are substantially better now than they were, say, 2 years ago.
The network is undergoing respectable growth (although perhaps a bit less spectacular than some were hoping a year or two ago). Number of transactions is up - and despite what the trolls like to claim, no evidence exists that this is due to manipulation. Hashrate is growing, which obviously serves a greater purpose than simply "making miners rich", i.e. the core function of the network (security) is getting stronger.
Alternatively, you can look at investments in BTC infrastructure as a long-term predictor. Sure, those are not "fundamentals" per se, but they're a good indicator that this isn't a Ponzi after all - again, despite what the trolls like to claim.
All of the above granted though, there is no arguing with the market.
In order for your argument (about price/fundamentals now vs. price/fundamentals back then) to actually work, you need at least one additional assumption: that price back then was the "fair" price per coin. And I'm afraid that's not a given. We're in the long, arduous process of figuring out what the fair price per coin is.
My personal view is this: if you look back at the limited history of this market, you will note that there are periods where price seems to run ahead of the fundamentals, and periods where the fundamentals seem to run ahead of price. Right now, we're in the latter type of period, and it's possible that it'll last some longer.
