Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 22023. (Read 26607528 times)

Despite what Sr. Stolfi likes to claim about "there being no fundamentals", you are right of course: Bitcoin fundamentals are substantially better now than they were, say, 2 years ago.

The network is undergoing respectable growth (although perhaps a bit less spectacular than some were hoping a year or two ago). Number of transactions is up - and despite what the trolls like to claim, no evidence exists that this is due to manipulation. Hashrate is growing, which obviously serves a greater purpose than simply "making miners rich", i.e. the core function of the network (security) is getting stronger.

Alternatively, you can look at investments in BTC infrastructure as a long-term predictor. Sure, those are not "fundamentals" per se, but they're a good indicator that this isn't a Ponzi after all - again, despite what the trolls like to claim.


All of the above granted though, there is no arguing with the market.

In order for your argument (about price/fundamentals now vs. price/fundamentals back then) to actually work, you need at least one additional assumption: that price back then was the "fair" price per coin. And I'm afraid that's not a given. We're in the long, arduous process of figuring out what the fair price per coin is.

My personal view is this: if you look back at the limited history of this market, you will note that there are periods where price seems to run ahead of the fundamentals, and periods where the fundamentals seem to run ahead of price. Right now, we're in the latter type of period, and it's possible that it'll last some longer.

The whales never dump midday USA time.  Always at night.  Just watch.

We've heard that for over a month now, very soon seems to be sometime 2017.

We're (trying to) assign a value to a network here, not a stock. Fundamentals for a network are #users, #tx's (useage), development of protocol, services on that protocol (i.e. potential use cases) etc.

I like the 'land-analogy' when explaining the speculative mania surrounding bitcoin. It's like owning a piece of land which has not much going for it right now. But people consider the possibility of the land being a vibrant city one day because of the certain characteristics it posesses.

On top of that, we're watching a very cool experiment unfold; the emerging of a international, decentralised payment and monetary system. This is the first time in history. In a world with so much central bank guidance, nirp/qe etc not bad to have an alternative to our money as debt-based system. Digital currency can also proof it's right/reason of existence in a scenario where complications unfold because of this.

btw thanks for being on bitcointalk, jorge. I value your opinion and input. Clearly you're a intelligent person. I only sincerly doubt whether you'd be capable of changing you're mind/opinion when necessary

Still $26m in longs.  Someone is going to get margin called very soon.

Crap! SkyVly has returned. We're dooooooooomed!

I'm putting Stolfi on ignore until he changes his picture. Does he think he is Jimmy Wales?

Tip? You mean DIP?

Usually prices go up a little bit on Mondays and Tuesdays.  Usually people don't sell off mid day.  They wait until afternoon or overnight.

What surprises me is that there is no selling pressure either at this price range.

Edit: The fact that this pig hasn't been slaughtered yet leads me to think that the big boys might know something we don't.

It is definitely going to stay in the $100 range pretty soon.  Monday morning and price hasn't changed a single bit.  No buying pressure at ALL.

"Fundamentals" of an ordinary stock are the profits and capital assets of the underlying company.  When you own a stock certificate, you literally own a slice of the company, so you own a slice of its capital assets and you are entitled to a slice of their profits.  The fundamentals define the long-term price of a stock, although there can be a significant speculatiive element added to it in shorter time scales.

Bitcoin has no "fundamentals". A bitcoin is like a share of a company with no product or service, no revenue, no capital assets.  If you own a bitcoin you don't own any assets, and you are not entitled to any dividdends.  The only thing you own is the certificate itself, whose only merit is that its current ownership is regstered in a supposedly ultra-safe registry that no government can tamper with.  The only thing that fixes it price is speculation: your only hope of getting a profit out of it is finding someone who is willing to pay for it more than you paid.

There has been perhaps a billion dollars invested into mining equipment, but bitcoin owners do not own a single screw of it.  The mining industry has abut 800 k$/day of revenue, and some miners still make substantial profit; but not a penny of that money will go to the bitcoin owners.  More than half a billion dollars has been invested in exchanges, payment processors, and other bitcoin-related companies; but, again, bitcoin owners do not own any piece of them.  On the contrary, all the revenue of miners and bitcoin-related companies will come from the pockets of those who buy bitcoins.

As for the difficulty: the market price determines the revenue of the miners, that determines the total hashpower, that determines the difficulty -- all indirectly, with substantial delays and distorted by accidents and errors of judgement.  There is no reverse control channel: the difficulty has no influence whatsoever on the price.

It looks like it might tip any moment

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Nope , youre not. But Im not sure how much this "while" longs. 1 week or more.

Am I the only one that thinks we will stay sideways for a while?

"IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT"

It seems well see below $ 200.

Gotta say I'm tempted to close this long.

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